Poonam Gupta

Output Response to Currency Crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of output during currency crises using a sample of 195 crisis episodes in 91 developing countries during 1970-98. It finds that more than two-fifths of the crises in the sample were expansionary, and that output contraction was greater in large and more developed economies than in small and less developed economies. Currency crises have not been any more contractionary in the 1990s than in the previous two decades. Countries that traded less with the rest of the world, that had a relatively open capital account, and where crises were preceded by large capital inflows were more likely to be associated with contraction during crises. The contraction was more pronounced if trade competitors devalued, oil prices rose during the crisis, and postcrisis period was marked by tight monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy.

Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs

Could a high-access, quick-disbursing %u201Cinsurance facility%u201D in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows (%u201Csudden stops%u201D)? We contribute to the debate on this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the incidence of sudden stops. Correcting for the non-random assignment of programs, we find that sudden stops are fewer and generally less severe when an IMF arrangement exists and that this form of %u201Cinsurance%u201D works best for countries with strong fundamentals. In contrast there is no evidence that a Fund-supported program attenuates the output effects of capital account reversals if these nonetheless occur.

Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises. It analyzes a large data set of currency crises in 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. The main question addressed is: can monetary policy significantly alter the probability of reversing the post-crisis undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than higher inflation? We find that tight monetary policy facilitates the reversal of currency undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than inflation. When the economy is also facing a banking crisis, depending on the specification, tight monetary policy may not have the same effect.

Portfolio Flows Into India; Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?

This paper analyzes the factors affecting portfolio equity flows into India using monthly data. Flows to India are small compared to other emerging markets, but seem to be relatively less volatile. They also seem to be quite resilient. The paper shows that portfolio flows are determined by both external and domestic factors. Among external factors, LIBOR and emerging market stock returns are important, while the primary domestic determinants are the lagged stock return and changes in credit ratings. In quantitative terms, both external and domestic factors are found to be about equally important.

Finance in Lower-Income Countries: An Empirical Exploration

This paper considers how a comprehensive set of factors relates to financial sector performance in low-income countries (LICs). It finds that corruption and inflation are associated with a shallower and less efficient financial system, while legal origin and characteristics of the supervisory and regulatory framework have no significant relationship with performance. Moreover, better contract enforcement and information about borrowers are associated with more private sector credit. Some results are surprising. Countries with more foreign bank penetration seem to have shallower and not necessarily more efficient financial sectors, while a larger presence of state-owned banks is correlated with more bank deposits and lower overhead costs, even after controlling for market size and concentration. Although these relationships are robust, more research is needed to ascertain the direction of causality and identify channels of transmission before deriving policy implications.

Big Reforms but Small Payoffs: Explaining the Weak Record of Growth in Indian Manufacturing

India has undertaken extensive reforms in its manufacturing sector over the last two decades. However, an acceleration of growth in manufacturing, and a corresponding increase in employment, has eluded India. Why have the reforms not produced the intended results? Using Annual Survey of Industries data at the three digit level for major Indian states, for 1980-2004, we analyze the effects of the reforms that liberalized Indias industrial licensing regime on the performance of registered manufacturing. We find that the performance of the manufacturing sector is heterogeneous across states, as well as across industries. In particular, labor intensive industries and industries dependent on infrastructure have not benefited much from reforms. Industrial performance appears to be contingent on the state specific policy and economic environment. States with relatively inflexible labor regulations have experienced slower growth of labor-intensive industries and slower employment growth overall. Additionally, states with relatively competitive product market regulations and with better infrastructure have experienced larger benefits from reforms.

What Constrains Indian Manufacturing

India has undertaken extensive reforms in its manufacturing sector in the last two decades. However, an acceleration of growth in manufacturing, and a concomitant increase in employment, has eluded India. What might be holding the sector back? Using Annual Survey of Industries data at the three-digit level and difference in estimates this paper finds that the post-reform performance of the manufacturing sector is heterogeneous across industries. In particular, industries dependent on infrastructure or external finance, and labour-intensive industries have not been able to reap the maximum benefits of reforms. The results point to the importance of infrastructure development and financial sector development for the manufacturing sector’s growth to accelerate further. They also emphasize the need to clearly identify and address the factors inhibiting the growth of labour-intensive industries.

The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?

This paper considers the determinants of exports of modern services and traditional services. It considers the growth of export volumes as well as export surges, that is, the periods of rapid sustained export growth. It asks whether the determinants of export growth rates and export surges differ between merchandise, traditional services, and modern services and whether developing countries are different. It confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. The paper finds that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than for exports of goods and that it is especially strong for exports of modern services. The results suggest that in the course of their development, as developing countries shift from exporting commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.

Nonresident Deposits in India : In Search of Return?

This paper analyzes trends in the accumulation of NRI (nonresident Indian) deposits and investigates the determinants of these inflows. It finds that monthly deposit flows have been quite stable since the 1991 crisis; nevertheless, there have been occasions when monthly flows turned negative in the short run, coinciding with adverse domestic or external events. Econometric analysis shows that the NRI deposits are influenced by standard risk and return variables. In particular, NRI deposits respond positively to changes in relative interest rates on NRI deposits and LIBOR; negatively to political and geopolitical uncertainties, such as the government resigning in mid-term, and tensions on Indias borders; and negatively to adverse external events, such as the Asian crisis.

Bank ownership and the effects of financial liberalization: evidence from India

Do financial sector reforms necessarily result in expansion of credit to the private sector? How does bank ownership affect the availability of credit to the private sector? Empirical evidence is somewhat mixed on these issues. We use the Indian experience with liberalization of the financial sector to inform this debate. Using bank-level data from 1991-2007, we ask whether public and private banks deployed resources freed up by reduced state preemption to increase credit to the private sector. We find that even after liberalization, public banks allocated a larger share of their assets to government securities than did private banks. Crucially, we also find that public banks were more responsive in allocating relatively more resources to finance the fiscal deficit even during periods when state pre-emption (measured in terms of the requirement to hold government securities as a share of assets) formally declined. These findings suggest that in developing countries, where alternative channels of financing may be limited, government ownership of banks, combined with high fiscal deficits, may limit the gains from financial liberalization.