James T. Gunter

Occurrence and Distribution of Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) Larval Habitats on Land Cover Change Sites in Urban Kisumu and Urban Malindi, Kenya

Abstract A multitemporal, land use land cover (LULC) classification dataset incorporating distributions of mosquito larval habitats was produced in ERDAS Imagine using the combined images from the Multispectral Thermal Imager (MTI) at 5 m spatial resolution from 2001 with Thematic Mapper-classification data at 28.5 m spatial resolution from 1987 and 1989 for Kisumu and Malindi, Kenya. Total LULC change for Kisumu over 14 yr was 30.2%. Total LULC change for Malindi over 12 yr was 30.6%. Of those areas in which change was detected, the LULC change for Kisumu was 72.5% for nonurban to urban, 21.7% urban to nonurban, 0.4% urban to water, 4.5% water to urban, and 0.9% water to nonurban. The proportion of LULC change for Malindi was 93.5% for nonurban to urban, 5.9% urban to nonurban, 0.2% urban to water, 0.3% nonurban to water, and 0.1% water to urban. A grid (270 m × 270 m cells) was overlaid over the maps stratifying grid cells based on drainage and planning. Of 84 aquatic habitats in Kisumu, 32.1% were located in LULC change sites and 67.9% were located in LULC nonchange sites. Of 170 aquatic habitats in Malindi, 26.5% were located in LULC change sites and 73.5% were located in LULC nonchange sites. The most abundant LULC change per strata with anopheline habitats was unplanned and poorly drained. Ditches and puddles in Kisumu and car tracks in Malindi displayed the highest number of anopheline larval habitats for all LULC change sites. The proportion of site positive aquatic habitats for anopheline larvae was higher in LULC change sites than for LULC nonchange sites for Kisumu. This evidence suggests LULC change can influence anopheline larval habitat distribution.

Spatial distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus and malaria transmission in Suba District, Western Kenya

The study reported here evaluated the distribution, relative abundance, and malaria transmission potential of Anopheles mosquitoes at 30 sites representing different ecological strata in western Kenya. Seasonal variation in anopheline densities and transmission potential, as expressed by Entomological inoculation rates (EIR), was investigated. Of the 6491 indoor resting anopheline mosquitoes collected at the 30 sites, 91.3 % (n = 5926) were An. gambiae s.l. and 8.7 % (n = 565) were An. funestus with an average house density of 6.58 and 0.63, respectively. Analysis of the data indicated significant variation in mosquito densities between study sites, species and season. High densities of both An. gambiae and An. funestus were recorded in the northern and northeastern parts of the district, while generally low densities were recorded in the south. Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis comprised 60.3 % (n = 3573) and 39.7 % (n = 2352) of the total number of An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes collected, respectively. The composition of the An. gambiae s.l. sibling species showed temporal and spatial variation. Entomologic inoculation rates were estimated at 1.55 and 0.12 infective bites per person per month for An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus, respectively. This study reveals considerable seasonal and site-specific variation in vector distribution, composition and transmission potential. Application of control interventions must therefore consider seasonal variations since the vectorial system changes quite rapidly over a short period of time.RésuméL’étude présentée ici évalue la distribution, l’abondance relative, et le potentiel de transmission du paludisme par des moustiques anophèles dans 30 localités représentatives des différentes conditions écologiques de l’Ouest du Kenya. La variation saisonnière des densités d’anophèles et du potentiel de transmission, exprimées par les taux d’inoculations Entomologiques (EIR), est examinée. Sur les 6491 anophèles récoltées au repos à l’intérieur des maisons dans les 30 localités, 91,3% (n=5926) sont des An. gambiae s.l. et 8,7% sont des An. funeslus avec une densité moyenne par maison de 6,58 et 0,63 respectivement. L’analyse des données indique une variation significative des densités de moustiques entre les sites étudiés, l’espèce et la saison. Des densités élevées à la fois d’An, gambiae s.l. et An. funestus ont été observées dans le nord et le nord est du district, alors que des densités généralement faibles ont été observées dans le sud. An. gambiae s.S. et An. arabiensis représentent respectivement 60,3% (n=3573) et 39,7% (n=2352) du nombre total de An. gambiae s.l récolté. La composition des 2 espèces d’An, gambiae s.l. montre une variation temporelle et spatiale. Les taux d’inoculations entomologiques sont estimés respectivement à 1,55 et 0,12 piqûres infestantes par personne et par mois pour’An. gambiae s.l. et An. funestus. Cette étude révèle une variation considérable de la distribution, de la composition et du potentiel de transmission des vecteurs selon la saison et la localité. La réalisation de campagnes de lutte doit par conséquent prendre en compte les variations saisonnières puisque le complexe vectoriel change très rapidement en un temps très court.

Environmental persistence of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in soil around Hardstand 7 at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida

Background and GoalA number of global events have generated intense scientific scrutiny and public concern of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (dioxin). DIoxins have been associated with a range of adverse health effects. 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) is recognized as among the most dangerous of the dioxin compounds, and was a contaminant found In one of the herbicides used for vegetation control during the Vietnam conflict: Agent Orange. As a result of purging spray systems and leaking drums of Agent Orange concentrate, TCDD contamination occurred in the soils surrounding Hardstand 7 at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. This research uses a multimedia model to estimate the TCDD concentrations in surface soil around Hardstand 7 for a 70-year time Interval beginning with observed surface soil concentrations 1984.MethodsHardstand 7 is a nearly 40-m circular concrete and asphalt aircraft parking area. The hardstand was used as a staging area for spraying equipment used to disseminate herbicide In a test area called C-52A within EAFB. Concentrated herbicide was also stored in 208-L barrels for use with the equipment, and later, for disposal. In 1984, a field investigation characterized the extent of TCDD contamination in surface soils around Hardstand 7 using a radial sampling protocol. The 1984 observed concentrations and locations was used in a multimedia model, CalTOX, as an initial source term concentrations and locations to estimate expected concentrations during the subsequent 70-years.ResultsThe results indicate that more than 94% of the TCDD observed in surface soils 1984 will remain after a 70-year period. Access restrictions and remediation activities at the site eliminate bar verification of the CalTOX estimates. Conclusions. TCDD is highly persistent in the soil medium and natural attenuation may not produce a significant decrease In soil concentrations.RecommendationActive remediation actions may be required to prevent exposure to TCDD contamination surface soils. Verifying CalTOX concentration estimates an Important step that should be performed, however, the, model provides an easy to use tool to estimate TCDD surface soil contamination at herbicide storage or dispersion staging sites.

Estimating total effective dose equivalents from terrorist use of radiological dispersion devices

ABSTRACT Radiological dispersion devices (RDDs), commonly called “dirty bombs,” utilize a conventional explosive to deliberately disperse non-fissile material as an aerosol. This analysis models total effective dose equivalent (Sv) at various locations down-wind from the detonation site subsequent to terrorists detonating a 241Am, 137Cs, 60Co, 192Ir, or90Sr RDD. A source term for each isotope equaling 3.7 × 1013 Bq with an instantaneous release by either high explosives or low explosives at street level is assumed in order to evaluate total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) under various meteorological scenarios for intentional releases of non-fissile materials by terrorists. The inhalation pathway on average contributes most to TEDE. The inhalation pathway accounts for 96% (0.22 Sv) of the mean exposure estimate of 0.2321 Sv and occurs over an extremely short time frame (i.e., a few minutes). Ground shine, on average, contributes the second most to TEDE estimates accounting for approximately 4% (0.009 Sv) of the estimate. A cautionary note with regard to ground shine is warranted, however, because Hotspot estimates for this pathway are based on the assumption that a person is exposed for 4 days (96 hours). The TEDE for submersion (i.e., passing through the plume without inhaling particles) is negligible for the scenarios evaluated contributing less than 1% (5.2 × 10−6 Sv) to the TEDE estimate averaged across all 140 model runs (5 nuclides × 2 rainfall scenarios × 2 explosive scenarios × 7 wind and atmospheric stability scenarios). The TEDE value for 241Am from inhalation is much greater, on average, than the inhalation TEDE value for 60Co, 137Cs, 192Ir, or 90Sr. This underscores the potentially high risk to human health posed by exposure to 241Am. Ground shine is the primary exposure pathway for 60Co and 137Cs due to the energetic and penetrating gamma rays those radionuclides emit. 192Ir and 90Sr have relatively low mean TEDE values for all of the pathways examined.

A Spatial Filtering Specification for an Auto‐negative Binomial Model of Anopheles arabiensis Aquatic Habitats

This research accounts for spatial autocorrelation by including latent map pattern components as predictor variables in a malaria mosquito aquatic habitat model specification. The data used to derive the model was from a digitized grid-based algorithm, generated in an ArcInfo database, using QuickBird visible and near-infrared (NIR) data. The Feature Extraction (FX) Module in ENVI 4.4® was used to categorize individual pixels of field sampled aquatic habitats into separate spectral classes, convert remotely sensed raster layers to vector coverages, and classify output layers to vector format as ESRI shapefiles. These data were used to construct a geographic weights matrix for evaluation of field and remote sampled covariates of Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitats, a major vector of malaria in East Africa. The principal finding is that synthetic map pattern variables, which are eigenvectors computed for a geographic weights matrix, furnish an alternative way of capturing spatial dependency effects in the mean response term of a regression model. The spatial autocorrelation components suggest the presence of roughly 11 to 28% redundant information in the aquatic habitat larval count samples. The presence of redundant information in the models suggest that the sampling configuration of the An. arabiensis aquatic habitats, in the study sites, may cause field and remote observations of aquatic habitats to be dependent, rather than independent, moving data analysis away from the classical statistical independence model. A Poisson regression model, with a non-constant, gamma-distributed mean, can decompose field and remote sampled An. arabiensis data into positive and negative spatial autocorrelation eigenvectors, which can assess the precision of a malaria mosquito aquatic habitat map and the significance of all factors associated with larval abundance and distribution in a riceland agroecosystem.

Using multimedia modeling to expedite site characterization

Goal, Scope and BackgroundThis paper uses two case studies of U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons complex installations to illustrate the integration of expedited site characterization (ESC) and multimedia modeling in the remedial action decision making process.Conceptual Site Models, Multimedia Models, and Expedited Site CharacterizationConceptual site models outline assumptions about contaminates and the spatial/temporal distribution of potential receptors. Multimedia models simulate contaminant transport and fate through multiple environmental media, estimate potential human exposure via specific exposure pathways, and estimate the risk of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes. ESC relies on using monitoring data to quantify the key components of an initial conceptual site model that is modified iteratively using the multimedia model.Case StudiesTwo case studies are presented that used the ESC approach: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Pantex. LANL released radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds, into canyons surrounding the facility. The Pantex Plant has past waste management operations which included burning chemical wastes in unlined pits, burying wastes in unlined landfills, and discharging plant wastewaters into on-site surface waters.ConclusionsThe case studies indicate that using multimedia models with the ESC approach can inform assessors about what, where, and how much site characterization data needs to be collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with risk assessment. Lowering the degree of uncertainty reduces the time and cost associated with assessing potential risk and increases the confidence that decision makers have in the assessments performed.

Modeling mobile source emissions during traffic jams in a micro urban environment.

Urbanization typically involves a continuous increase in motor vehicle use, resulting in congestion known as traffic jams. Idling emissions due to traffic jams combine with the complex terrain created by buildings to concentrate atmospheric pollutants in localized areas. This research simulates emissions concentrations and distributions for a congested street in Minsk, Belarus. Ground-level (up to 50-meters above the street’s surface) pollutant concentrations were calculated using STAR (version 3.10) with emission factors obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, wind speed and direction, and building location and size. Relative emissions concentrations and distributions were simulated at 1-meter and 10-meters above street level. The findings demonstrate the importance of wind speed and direction, and building size and location on emissions concentrations and distributions, with the leeward sides of buildings retaining up to 99 percent of the emitted pollutants within 1-meter of street level, and up to 77 percent 10-meters above the street.

A Theoretical Approach to Modeling Ionizing Radiation Migration and Dose in Aquatic Environments Using Monte Carlo Simulation

This analysis focuses on estimating the migration of ionizing radiation and calculating potential doses for external radiation exposure from a l37Cs source in the water column and sediments of large reservoirs or lakes. A Monte Carlo-based modeling approach is described and an adjoint transport equation incorporated with Monte Carlo-based modeling as well as a numerical integration method is used to estimate radionuclide migration and dose distributions. The adjoint transport equation is solved incorporating the Monte Carlo method and the results are compared to the results of the numerical iteration methods for a geometrically simplistic environment. The adjoint transport equation incorporated with the Monte Carlo method provides results that demonstrate that the dose estimates are comparable to numeric integration. However, incorporating Monte Carlo modeling also provides a way to bound the uncertainties associated with numerical solutions that estimate radiation field characteristics. The Monte Carlo method is computationally efficient for calculating ionizing radiation migration and potential dose, and can be used on more complex geometries than the applied numerical integration method. The Monte Carlo method can be used to support risk assessments that more accurately bound uncertainties.

Assessing Present Biological Information for Valuating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Softwood Stumpage Supply in the South

The uncertainty inherent in projecting forest responses to climatic change has limited attempts to evaluate the potential economic impact of global climate change on forestry in the United States (Hodges, et al., 1992; Bazazz, 1990; Smith and Tirpak, 1989; DeLaune et al., 1987). This study compares the possible changes to southern timber supply resulting from the northward shift of softwood forests to the potential growth increases due to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The study describes a potential approach to obtain the following information: Estimates of the potential effects of rapid, anthropogenically induced climate change on the softwood stumpage supply of the southern United States resulting from shifts in the distribution of southern pines; Estimates of the potential effects of an enriched CO2 atmosphere on softwood stumpage supply; and Comparison of the effects of changes in softwood forest distribution with the potential growth responses, thus identifying biological information that will likely have the greatest impact on an economic valuation.