Janet C. Jorgenson

Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome(1). Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity ov ...

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

Significance Methodological constraints can limit our ability to quantify potential impacts of climate warming. We assessed the consistency of three approaches in estimating warming effects on plant community composition: manipulative warming experiments, repeat sampling under ambient temperature change (monitoring), and space-for-time substitution. The three approaches showed agreement in the direction of change (an increase in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche), but differed in the magnitude of change estimated. Experimental and monitoring approaches were similar in magnitude, whereas space-for-time comparisons indicated a much stronger response. These results suggest that all three approaches are valid, but experimental warming and long-term monitoring are best suited for forecasting impacts over the coming decades. Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Long‐term recovery patterns of arctic tundra after winter seismic exploration

In response to the increasing global demand for energy, oil exploration and development are expanding into frontier areas of the Arctic, where slow-growing tundra vegetation and the underlying permafrost soils are very sensitive to disturbance. The creation of vehicle trails on the tundra from seismic exploration for oil has accelerated in the past decade, and the cumulative impact represents a geographic footprint that covers a greater extent of Alaskas North Slope tundra than all other direct human impacts combined. Seismic exploration for oil and gas was conducted on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in the winters of 1984 and 1985. This study documents recovery of vegetation and permafrost soils over a two-decade period after vehicle traffic on snow-covered tundra. Paired permanent vegetation plots (disturbed vs. reference) were monitored six times from 1984 to 2002. Data were collected on percent vegetative cover by plant species and on soil and ground ice characteristics. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models, with temporally and spatially autocorrelated errors, to analyze the effects of vegetation type and initial disturbance levels on recovery patterns of the different plant growth forms as well as soil thaw depth. Plant community composition was altered on the trails by species-specific responses to initial disturbance and subsequent changes in substrate. Long-term changes included increased cover of graminoids and decreased cover of evergreen shrubs and mosses. Trails with low levels of initial disturbance usually improved well over time, whereas those with medium to high levels of initial disturbance recovered slowly. Trails on ice-poor, gravel substrates of riparian areas recovered better than those on ice-rich loamy soils of the uplands, even after severe initial damage. Recovery to pre-disturbance communities was not possible where trail subsidence occurred due to thawing of ground ice. Previous studies of disturbance from winter seismic vehicles in the Arctic predicted short-term and mostly aesthetic impacts, but we found that severe impacts to tundra vegetation persisted for two decades after disturbance under some conditions. We recommend management approaches that should be used to prevent persistent tundra damage.

Resistance and Resilience of Tundra Plant Communities to Disturbance by Winter Seismic Vehicles

Effects of winter seismic exploration on arctic tundra were evaluated on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, four to five growing seasons after disturbance. Plant cover, active layer depths, and track depression were measured at plots representing major tundra plant communities and different levels of initial disturbance. Results are compared with the initial effects reported earlier. Little resilience was seen in any vegetation type, with no clearly decreasing trends in community dissimilarity (differences in species cover values between disturbed and control areas). Active layer depths remained greater on plots in all nonriparian vegetation types, and most plots still had visible trails. Decreases in plant cover persisted on most plots, although a few species showed recovery or increases in cover above predisturbance level. Moist sedge-shrub tundra and dryas terraces had the largest community dissimilarities initially, showing the least resistance to high levels of winter vehicle disturbance. Community dissimilarity continued to increase for five seasons in moist sedge-shrub tundra, with species composition changing to higher sedge cover and lower shrub cover. The resilience amplitude may have been exceeded on four plots which had significant track depression.

Twenty-Five Year Record of Changes in Plant Cover on Tundra of Northeastern Alaska

Abstract Northern Alaska has warmed over recent decades and satellite data indicate that vegetation productivity has increased. To document vegetation changes in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, we monitored plant cover at 27 plots between 1984 and 2009. These are among the oldest permanently marked and continuously monitored vegetation plots in the Arctic. We quantified percent cover of all plant species by line-point intercept sampling and assessed change over time for seven plant growth forms. Cover of bryophytes and deciduous shrubs showed slight decreasing trends. Evergreen shrubs, horsetails, and depth of thawed soil above permafrost had no trends. For lichens, graminoids, and forbs, trends varied by plant community type. Overall, vegetation in the plots changed little over the study period, in contrast to results from other studies in northern Alaska. A few plots had dramatic changes, however, which we attributed to subsidence from melting ground ice or to floodplain dynamics. Our results demonstrate that vegetation change on the Arctic Refuge coastal plain over the past quarter century has been spatially heterogeneous and facilitated by disturbance. The findings highlight the need for greater work linking plotlevel and regional remote sensing measurements of change.

Trends in NDVI and Tundra Community Composition in the Arctic of NE Alaska Between 1984 and 2009

As Arctic ecosystems experience increases in surface air temperatures, plot-level analyses of tundra vegetation composition suggest that there are important changes occurring in tundra communities that are typified by increases in shrubs and declines in non-vascular species. At the same time analyses of NDVI indicate that the Arctic tundra is greening. Few studies have combined plot-level trends in species composition and cover with remote sensing measurements to understand the linkages between tundra vegetation dynamics and NDVI over time. This study reports on trends in species composition for field plots in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in NE Alaska from 1984 to 2009 and links these trends to the trends in NDVI at fine and coarse scales. Over this time frame there were few changes in plant community composition. None of the five tundra types that were measured had increases in total vegetative cover, and deciduous shrub cover did not show the large increases reported elsewhere. Surface-(plot) measured NDVI was positively correlated to deciduous and evergreen shrub composition suggesting that these functional groups had a strong influence on NDVI values. Modeled values of NDVI, derived from measures of deciduous and evergreen shrub composition over time, decreased slightly for tussock tundra but did not change for other tundra types. This result suggests that surface NDVI did not change over time on these tundra types. Fine-scale (30-m pixels) Landsat NDVI also did not show any changes for the pixels located at the permanent plots (1992–2009). However, coarse-scale (8-km pixels) AVHRR NDVI across the study area did increase (1988–2007). Furthermore, aggregate values of Landsat pixels matching the same area as AVHRR pixels also did not show significant changes over time. Although Landsat NDVI was consistent with surface-measured NDVI, AVHRR NDVI was not. AVHRR NDVI values showed increases that were in neither the field nor Landsat data. This result suggests that AVHRR may be demonstrating increasing trends in NDVI that are not occurring on the ground in some Arctic tundra ecosystems. These results highlight the need to combine remote sensing with on-the-ground measurements of plant community composition and NDVI in the analysis of the responses of Arctic tundra ecosystems to climate change.