Jennifer M. Broughan

Bovine tuberculosis trends in the UK and the Republic of Ireland, 1995–2010

Selected demographic features and trends in bovine tuberculosis (BTB) from 1995 to 2010 are described for the countries of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, using standardised definitions and measures. All countries experienced a reduction in the number of cattle and herds and in the proportion of dairy herds, while average herd size increased. In general, the trends indicate a stable situation of very low BTB prevalence in Scotland and, over most of the period, a rising prevalence in England and Wales. The prevalence in the Republic of Ireland declined while Northern Ireland experienced both a rise and fall. Differences in demography, BTB programme structure and test results were noted, particularly between the island of Ireland and Great Britain. Further investigation of these differences may provide valuable insights into risk factors for BTB and optimisation of existing BTB programmes.

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.

Bovine TB infection status in cattle in Great Britain in 2012

This report, provided by the AHVLA, summarises the infection status of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in Great Britain from January 1 to December 31, 2012 and describes some of the temporal trends observed over a longer period. The AHVLA intends to produce similar reports for future years to provide a concise summary of how the situation is developing.

Bovine TB surveillance in Great Britain in 2014

This report, provided by the APHA, summarises the key descriptive epidemiological parameters of bovine TB in cattle in Great Britain from January 1 to December 31, 2014. It summarises some of the temporal trends observed over a longer period and highlights some differences and similarities between Scotland, Wales and the three bovine TB risk areas of England. It updates the previous annual summaries for 2012 and 2013, also published in Veterinary Record (VR, June 14, 2014, vol 174, pp 600-604; March 28, 2015, vol 176, pp 326-330).

Responses to diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in dairy and non-dairy cattle naturally exposed to Mycobacterium bovis in Great Britain

Field surveillance of British cattle using the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test shows a higher incidence rate of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in dairy compared to beef herds, but a lower probability of post-mortem examination confirmed (PMC) Mycobacterium bovis infection in dairy herds. A cross-sectional study was conducted to compare animal level differences in bTB detection between dairy and non-dairy cattle in Great Britain. During the period from 2002 to 2005, 200 (41% dairy) reactors in the SICCT test (standard interpretation) were randomly selected, and 200 in-contact cattle (43% dairy) were purposively selected from bTB-infected herds. Interferon (IFN)-γ responses in blood to bovine and avian purified protein derivative (PPD), and early secretory antigen target 6 kDa and culture filtrate protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10), were measured. The post-mortem examination included gross pathological examination, mycobacterial culture and histopathology. The proportions of cattle positive to ESAT6/CFP10 were 26% (95% confidence interval, CI, 15-39%) in dairy reactors and 62% (95% CI 51-72%) in non-dairy reactors (P <0.001). PMC risk was 34% (95% CI 24-45%) in dairy reactors and 69% (95% CI 60-78%) in non-dairy reactors (P <0.001). The odds ratio for PMC risk in dairy reactors compared to non-dairy reactors, after controlling for bTB prevalence, herd size and SICCT test response, was 0.27 (95% CI 0.14-0.53; P <0.001). In surveillance data, adjusted animal level PMC risks were lower for dairy reactors than for beef reactors aged >2 years (P <0.001).

Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date.

Farming on the edge: farmer attitudes to bovine tuberculosis in newly endemic areas

Defras recent strategy to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) establishes three spatial zones: high-risk areas (HRAs) and low-risk areas, and an area referred to as ‘the edge’, which marks the areas where infection is spreading outwards from the HRA. Little is known about farmers in the edge area, their attitudes towards bTB and their farming practices. This paper examines farmers’ practices and attitudes towards bTB in standardised epidemiologically defined areas. A survey was developed to collect data on farmer attitudes, behaviours, practices and environmental conditions as part of an interdisciplinary analysis of bTB risk factors. Survey items were developed from a literature review and focus groups with vets and farmers in different locations within the edge area. A case-control sampling framework was adopted with farms sampled from areas identified as recently endemic for bTB. 347 farmers participated in the survey including 117 with bTB, representing a 70per cent response rate. Results show that farmers believe they are unable to do anything about bTB but are keen for the government intervention to help control the spread of bTB.

Using geographically weighted regression to explore the spatially heterogeneous spread of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales

An understanding of the factors that affect the spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is critical for the development of measures to stop and reverse this spread. Analyses of spatial data need to account for the inherent spatial heterogeneity within the data, or else spatial autocorrelation can lead to an overestimate of the significance of variables. This study used three methods of analysis—least-squares linear regression with a spatial autocorrelation term, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis—to identify the factors that influence the spread of endemic bTB at a local level in England and Wales. The linear regression and GWR methods demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial differences in risk factors for bTB, and showed some consistency in the identification of certain factors related to flooding, disease history and the presence of multiple genotypes of bTB. This is the first attempt to explore the factors associated with the spread of endemic bTB in England and Wales using GWR. This technique improves on least-squares linear regression approaches by identifying regional differences in the factors associated with bTB spread. However, interpretation of these complex regional differences is difficult and the approach does not lend itself to predictive models which are likely to be of more value to policy makers. Methods such as BRT may be more suited to such a task. Here we have demonstrated that GWR and BRT can produce comparable outputs.

Methodology and preliminary results of a systematic literature review of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis

A systematic review was conducted to identify studies with data for statistical meta-analyses of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Members of a working group (WG) developed and tested search criteria and developed a standardised two-stage review process, to identify primary studies with numerator and denominator data for test performance and an agreed range of covariate data. No limits were applied to year, language, region or type of test in initial searches of electronic databases. In stage 1, titles and available abstracts were reviewed. References that complied with stage 1 selection criteria were reviewed in entirety and agreed data were extracted from references that complied with stage 2 selection criteria. At stage 1, 9782 references were reviewed and 261 (2.6%) passed through to stage 2 where 215 English language references were each randomly allocated to two of 18 WG reviewers and 46 references in other languages were allocated to native speakers. Agreement regarding eligibility between reviewers of the same reference at stage 2 was moderate (Kappa statistic = 0.51) and a resolution procedure was conducted. Only 119 references (published 1934-2009) were identified with eligible performance estimates for one or more of 14 different diagnostic test types; despite a comprehensive search strategy and the global impact of bTB. Searches of electronic databases for diagnostic test performance data were found to be nonspecific with regard to identifying references with diagnostic test Se or Sp data. Guidelines for the content of abstracts to research papers reporting diagnostic test performance are presented. The results of meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of the tests, and of an evaluation of the methodological quality of the source references, are presented in accompanying papers (Nuñez-Garcia et al., 2017; Downs et al., 2017).