A. V. Goodchild

Introduction of bovine tuberculosis to north-east England by bought-in cattle.

The source of bovine tuberculosis was investigated in 31 herds in north-east England that experienced confirmed breakdowns between January 2002 and June 2004; nine of the herds had been restocked after the uk outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2001. In all but one of the breakdowns the most likely source of infection was identified as one or more purchased animals. In 17 of the breakdowns, reactor animals were traced to herds from which the same combination of spoligotype and variable number tandem repeats was isolated, and in five breakdowns a different spoligotype was isolated. The most likely sources were located in Wales and the west and north of England, and included a Cheshire herd that was the most likely source of nine of the breakdowns. Three breakdowns were traced to Irish imports. Reactors in five of the breakdowns included homebred as well as purchased animals, providing evidence for the likely spread of the disease within the herds. The lack of geographical clustering of molecular types pointed to the overwhelming source of infection being cattle that had been bought-in.

Bovine tuberculosis trends in the UK and the Republic of Ireland, 1995–2010

Selected demographic features and trends in bovine tuberculosis (BTB) from 1995 to 2010 are described for the countries of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, using standardised definitions and measures. All countries experienced a reduction in the number of cattle and herds and in the proportion of dairy herds, while average herd size increased. In general, the trends indicate a stable situation of very low BTB prevalence in Scotland and, over most of the period, a rising prevalence in England and Wales. The prevalence in the Republic of Ireland declined while Northern Ireland experienced both a rise and fall. Differences in demography, BTB programme structure and test results were noted, particularly between the island of Ireland and Great Britain. Further investigation of these differences may provide valuable insights into risk factors for BTB and optimisation of existing BTB programmes.

Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain

The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.

Estimation of the Relative Sensitivity of the Comparative Tuberculin Skin Test in Tuberculous Cattle Herds Subjected to Depopulation

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the most serious economic animal health problems affecting the cattle industry in Great Britain (GB), with incidence in cattle herds increasing since the mid-1980s. The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary screening test in the bTB surveillance and control programme in GB and Ireland. The sensitivity (ability to detect infected cattle) of this test is central to the efficacy of the current testing regime, but most previous studies that have estimated test sensitivity (relative to the number of slaughtered cattle with visible lesions [VL] and/or positive culture results) lacked post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle. The slaughter of entire herds (“whole herd slaughters” or “depopulations”) that are infected by bTB are occasionally conducted in GB as a last-resort control measure to resolve intractable bTB herd breakdowns. These provide additional post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle, allowing a rare opportunity to calculate the animal-level sensitivity of the test relative to the total number of SICCT test-positive and negative VL animals identified post-mortem (rSe). In this study, data were analysed from 16 whole herd slaughters (748 SICCT test-positive and 1031 SICCT test-negative cattle) conducted in GB between 1988 and 2010, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. The overall rSe estimate of the SICCT test at the severe interpretation was 85% (95% credible interval [CI]: 78–91%), and at standard interpretation was 81% (95% CI: 70–89%). These estimates are more robust than those previously reported in GB due to inclusion of post-mortem data from SICCT test-negative cattle.

Specificity of the comparative skin test for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain

A novel method for estimating specificity of the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) using surveillance tests results is reported. The specificity of the SICCT test at three cut-offs was estimated from the dates, locations and skinfold measurements of all routine tests carried out in Officially TB Free (OTF) cattle herds in Great Britain (GB) between 2002 and 2008, according to their separation (by distance and time) from known infected (OTF-withdrawn) herds. The proportion of animals that tested positive was constant (P>0.20) when the distance between tested herds and nearest infected herd exceeded 8 km. For standard cut-off, calculated specificity was 99.98 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval ±0.004 per cent), equating to one false positive result per 5000 uninfected animals tested. For severe cut-off it was 99.91 per cent (±0.013 per cent) and for ultrasevere cut-off (selecting all reactors and inconclusive reactors) it was 99.87 per cent (±0.017 per cent). The estimated positive predictive value of the test averaged 91 per cent and varied by regional prevalence. This study provides further evidence of the high specificity of the SICCT test under GB conditions, suggests that over 90 per cent of cattle currently culled using this test in GB were infected, and endorses slaughter of at least these cattle for bTB control.

Geographical association between the genotype of bovine tuberculosis in found dead badgers and in cattle herds

In a survey, 457 badgers that had been found dead in Wales were postmortem-examined, and samples were examined by histology and by extended culture (for up to 12 weeks). Mycobacterium bovis was cultured from 55 badgers (12.0 per cent), and the histology typical of M bovis infection was seen in a further six (1.3 per cent). The prevalence in badgers in each of 10 geographical areas varied between 0 and 26 per cent (P<0.001), and was associated with the incidence of confirmed M bovis infection in cattle herds in the same areas (P<0.01). In northern Wales, bTB was rare in both hosts. An infected badger was 12.3 times more likely to be within 5 km of a confirmed cattle bTB breakdown than an uninfected badger. The M bovis isolates from badgers belonged to one of four genotypes defined by spoligotype and variable number tandem repeat type. These genotypes were also found in 290 concurrent confirmed herd breakdowns, and tended to be similar to the genotypes in badgers in the same geographical areas. When badgers and cattle no more than 30 km apart were compared, the genotype diversity was greater in cattle than in badgers (P=0.016), suggesting that the movement of cattle plays a greater part in the spatial distribution of M bovis than the movement of badgers.

Tuberculin manufacturing source and breakdown incidence rate of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle, 2005–2009

The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary test used for surveillance for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle in Great Britain (GB). The tuberculin used can, with other factors, influence test accuracy. In this analysis, the detection of infected cattle in GB 2005–2009 was compared between SICCT tests using tuberculins manufacturered by different manufacturers. Higher rates of reactors (adjusted rate 209 vs 186 per 100,000 tests, P = 0.003) and herd bTB incidents (adjusted total breakdown rate 5.1 vs 4.5 per 100 herd-years at risk, P < 0.001) were detected using tuberculin manufactured at Weybridge compared with Lelystad. However, confirmation of infection in reactors by postmortem evidence was higher with Lelystad tuberculin (adjusted percent 44.1 vs 47.1, P = 0.018). The findings, overall, suggest slightly higher test sensitivity and lower test specificity associated with Weybridge tuberculin compared with Lelystad. Assuming effective adjustment for confounding, the overall impact of tuberculin manufacturing source (2007–2009), was calculated to range somewhere between 315 false positive breakdowns, and 1086 bTB breakdowns missed (624 confirmed) as a result of using Weybridge and Lelystad tuberculin, respectively. However, animals that tested negative to the SICCT were not slaughtered at the time of the tests, so definitive conclusions are not possible.

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.

A review of risk factors for bovine tuberculosis infection in cattle in the UK and Ireland.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease of cattle caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis, a pathogen that may be extremely difficult to eradicate in the presence of a true wildlife reservoir. Our objective was to identify and review relevant literature and provide a succinct summary of current knowledge of risk factors for transmission of infection of cattle. Search strings were developed to identify publications from electronic databases to February 2015. Abstracts of 4255 papers identified were reviewed by three reviewers to determine whether the entire article was likely to contain relevant information. Risk factors could be broadly grouped as follows: animal (including nutrition and genetics), herd (including bTB and testing history), environment, wildlife and social factors. Many risk factors are inter-related and study designs often do not enable differentiation between cause and consequence of infection. Despite differences in study design and location, some risk factors are consistently identified, e.g. herd size, bTB history, presence of infected wildlife, whereas the evidence for others is less consistent and coherent, e.g. nutrition, local cattle movements. We have identified knowledge gaps where further research may result in an improved understanding of bTB transmission dynamics. The application of targeted, multifactorial disease control regimens that address a range of risk factors simultaneously is likely to be a key to effective, evidence-informed control strategies.

Bovine TB infection status in cattle in Great Britain in 2012

This report, provided by the AHVLA, summarises the infection status of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in Great Britain from January 1 to December 31, 2012 and describes some of the temporal trends observed over a longer period. The AHVLA intends to produce similar reports for future years to provide a concise summary of how the situation is developing.