Paul Upton

Bovine tuberculosis trends in the UK and the Republic of Ireland, 1995–2010

Selected demographic features and trends in bovine tuberculosis (BTB) from 1995 to 2010 are described for the countries of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, using standardised definitions and measures. All countries experienced a reduction in the number of cattle and herds and in the proportion of dairy herds, while average herd size increased. In general, the trends indicate a stable situation of very low BTB prevalence in Scotland and, over most of the period, a rising prevalence in England and Wales. The prevalence in the Republic of Ireland declined while Northern Ireland experienced both a rise and fall. Differences in demography, BTB programme structure and test results were noted, particularly between the island of Ireland and Great Britain. Further investigation of these differences may provide valuable insights into risk factors for BTB and optimisation of existing BTB programmes.

Specificity of the comparative skin test for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain

A novel method for estimating specificity of the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) using surveillance tests results is reported. The specificity of the SICCT test at three cut-offs was estimated from the dates, locations and skinfold measurements of all routine tests carried out in Officially TB Free (OTF) cattle herds in Great Britain (GB) between 2002 and 2008, according to their separation (by distance and time) from known infected (OTF-withdrawn) herds. The proportion of animals that tested positive was constant (P>0.20) when the distance between tested herds and nearest infected herd exceeded 8 km. For standard cut-off, calculated specificity was 99.98 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval ±0.004 per cent), equating to one false positive result per 5000 uninfected animals tested. For severe cut-off it was 99.91 per cent (±0.013 per cent) and for ultrasevere cut-off (selecting all reactors and inconclusive reactors) it was 99.87 per cent (±0.017 per cent). The estimated positive predictive value of the test averaged 91 per cent and varied by regional prevalence. This study provides further evidence of the high specificity of the SICCT test under GB conditions, suggests that over 90 per cent of cattle currently culled using this test in GB were infected, and endorses slaughter of at least these cattle for bTB control.

Tuberculin manufacturing source and breakdown incidence rate of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle, 2005–2009

The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary test used for surveillance for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle in Great Britain (GB). The tuberculin used can, with other factors, influence test accuracy. In this analysis, the detection of infected cattle in GB 2005–2009 was compared between SICCT tests using tuberculins manufacturered by different manufacturers. Higher rates of reactors (adjusted rate 209 vs 186 per 100,000 tests, P = 0.003) and herd bTB incidents (adjusted total breakdown rate 5.1 vs 4.5 per 100 herd-years at risk, P < 0.001) were detected using tuberculin manufactured at Weybridge compared with Lelystad. However, confirmation of infection in reactors by postmortem evidence was higher with Lelystad tuberculin (adjusted percent 44.1 vs 47.1, P = 0.018). The findings, overall, suggest slightly higher test sensitivity and lower test specificity associated with Weybridge tuberculin compared with Lelystad. Assuming effective adjustment for confounding, the overall impact of tuberculin manufacturing source (2007–2009), was calculated to range somewhere between 315 false positive breakdowns, and 1086 bTB breakdowns missed (624 confirmed) as a result of using Weybridge and Lelystad tuberculin, respectively. However, animals that tested negative to the SICCT were not slaughtered at the time of the tests, so definitive conclusions are not possible.

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.

Bovine TB infection status in cattle in Great Britain in 2012

This report, provided by the AHVLA, summarises the infection status of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in Great Britain from January 1 to December 31, 2012 and describes some of the temporal trends observed over a longer period. The AHVLA intends to produce similar reports for future years to provide a concise summary of how the situation is developing.

Bovine TB surveillance in Great Britain in 2014

This report, provided by the APHA, summarises the key descriptive epidemiological parameters of bovine TB in cattle in Great Britain from January 1 to December 31, 2014. It summarises some of the temporal trends observed over a longer period and highlights some differences and similarities between Scotland, Wales and the three bovine TB risk areas of England. It updates the previous annual summaries for 2012 and 2013, also published in Veterinary Record (VR, June 14, 2014, vol 174, pp 600-604; March 28, 2015, vol 176, pp 326-330).

Responses to diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in dairy and non-dairy cattle naturally exposed to Mycobacterium bovis in Great Britain

Field surveillance of British cattle using the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test shows a higher incidence rate of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in dairy compared to beef herds, but a lower probability of post-mortem examination confirmed (PMC) Mycobacterium bovis infection in dairy herds. A cross-sectional study was conducted to compare animal level differences in bTB detection between dairy and non-dairy cattle in Great Britain. During the period from 2002 to 2005, 200 (41% dairy) reactors in the SICCT test (standard interpretation) were randomly selected, and 200 in-contact cattle (43% dairy) were purposively selected from bTB-infected herds. Interferon (IFN)-γ responses in blood to bovine and avian purified protein derivative (PPD), and early secretory antigen target 6 kDa and culture filtrate protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10), were measured. The post-mortem examination included gross pathological examination, mycobacterial culture and histopathology. The proportions of cattle positive to ESAT6/CFP10 were 26% (95% confidence interval, CI, 15-39%) in dairy reactors and 62% (95% CI 51-72%) in non-dairy reactors (P <0.001). PMC risk was 34% (95% CI 24-45%) in dairy reactors and 69% (95% CI 60-78%) in non-dairy reactors (P <0.001). The odds ratio for PMC risk in dairy reactors compared to non-dairy reactors, after controlling for bTB prevalence, herd size and SICCT test response, was 0.27 (95% CI 0.14-0.53; P <0.001). In surveillance data, adjusted animal level PMC risks were lower for dairy reactors than for beef reactors aged >2 years (P <0.001).

Farming on the edge: farmer attitudes to bovine tuberculosis in newly endemic areas

Defras recent strategy to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) establishes three spatial zones: high-risk areas (HRAs) and low-risk areas, and an area referred to as ‘the edge’, which marks the areas where infection is spreading outwards from the HRA. Little is known about farmers in the edge area, their attitudes towards bTB and their farming practices. This paper examines farmers’ practices and attitudes towards bTB in standardised epidemiologically defined areas. A survey was developed to collect data on farmer attitudes, behaviours, practices and environmental conditions as part of an interdisciplinary analysis of bTB risk factors. Survey items were developed from a literature review and focus groups with vets and farmers in different locations within the edge area. A case-control sampling framework was adopted with farms sampled from areas identified as recently endemic for bTB. 347 farmers participated in the survey including 117 with bTB, representing a 70per cent response rate. Results show that farmers believe they are unable to do anything about bTB but are keen for the government intervention to help control the spread of bTB.

Assessing the effects of the first 2 years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013–2015

Abstract Culling badgers to control the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) between this wildlife reservoir and cattle has been widely debated. Industry‐led culling began in Somerset and Gloucestershire between August and November 2013 to reduce local badger populations. Industry‐led culling is not designed to be a randomized and controlled trial of the impact of culling on cattle incidence. Nevertheless, it is important to monitor the effects of the culling and, taking the study limitations into account, perform a cautious evaluation of the impacts. A standardized method for selecting areas matched to culling areas in factors found to affect cattle TB risk has been developed to evaluate the impact of badger culling on cattle TB incidence. The association between cattle TB incidence and badger culling in the first 2 years has been assessed. Descriptive analyses without controlling for confounding showed no association between culling and TB incidence for Somerset, or for either of the buffer areas for the first 2 years since culling began. A weak association was observed in Gloucestershire for Year 1 only. Multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors showed that reductions in TB incidence were associated with culling in the first 2 years in both the Somerset and Gloucestershire intervention areas when compared to areas with no culling (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72–0.87, p < .001 and IRR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.34–0.51, p < .001, respectively). An increase in incidence was associated with culling in the 2‐km buffer surrounding the Somerset intervention area (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.09–1.75, p = .008), but not in Gloucestershire (IRR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.77–1.07, p = .243). As only 2 intervention areas with 2 years of data are available for analysis, and the biological cause–effect relationship behind the statistical associations is difficult to determine, it would be unwise to use these findings to develop generalizable inferences about the effectiveness of the policy at present.

The Effect of Badger Culling on Breakdown Prolongation and Recurrence of Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds in Great Britain

Bovine tuberculosis is endemic in cattle herds in Great Britain, with a substantial economic impact. A reservoir of Mycobacterium bovis within the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population is thought to have hindered disease control. Cattle herd incidents, termed breakdowns, that are either ‘prolonged’ (lasting ≥240 days) or ‘recurrent’ (with another breakdown within a specified time period) may be important foci for onward spread of infection. They drain veterinary resources and can be demoralising for farmers. Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) data were re-analysed to examine the effects of two culling strategies on breakdown prolongation and recurrence, during and after culling, using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Separate effect estimates were obtained for the ‘core’ trial areas (where culling occurred) and the ‘buffer’ zones (up to 2 km outside of the core areas). For breakdowns that started during the culling period, ‘reactive’ (localised) culling was associated with marginally increased odds of prolongation, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.7 (95% credible interval [CI] 1.1–2.4) within the core areas. This effect was not present after the culling ceased. There was no notable effect of ‘proactive’ culling on prolongation. In contrast, reactive culling had no effect on breakdown recurrence, though there was evidence of a reduced risk of recurrence in proactive core areas during the culling period (ORs and 95% CIs: 0.82 (0.64–1.0) and 0.69 (0.54–0.86) for 24- and 36-month recurrence respectively). Again these effects were not present after the culling ceased. There seemed to be no effect of culling on breakdown prolongation or recurrence in the buffer zones. These results suggest that the RBCT badger culling strategies are unlikely to reduce either the prolongation or recurrence of breakdowns in the long term, and that reactive strategies (such as employed during the RBCT) are, if anything, likely to impact detrimentally on breakdown persistence.