Jessica E. Todd

Impact of Targeted Beverage Taxes on Higher- and Lower-Income Households

BACKGROUND Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are increasingly being considered as a strategy for addressing the obesity epidemic. We sought to investigate the differential impact of targeted beverage taxes on higher- and lower-income households. METHODS This analysis relied on data from the 2006 Nielsen Homescan panel, which included a national sample of households that scan and transmit their store-bought food and beverage purchases weekly for a 12-month period. We assessed associations among beverage prices, energy intake, and weight using multivariate regression models. RESULTS A 20% and 40% tax on carbonated SSBs only would reduce beverage purchases by a mean (SE) of 4.2 (1.6) and 7.8 (2.8) kcal/d per person, respectively. Extending the tax to all SSBs generates mean (SE) reductions of 7.0 (1.9) and 12.4 (3.4) kcal/d per person, respectively. Estimated mean (SE) weight losses resulting from a 20% and 40% tax on all SSBs are 0.32 (0.09) and 0.59 (0.16) kg/y per person, respectively. The 40% tax on SSBs, which costs a mean (SE) of

Predicting the Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System

28.48 (

Implications of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax when substitutions to non-beverage items are considered

0.87) per household per year, would generate

The impact of food away from home on adult diet quality.

2.5 billion (

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: Experimental evidence from Latin America

77.5 million) in tax revenue, with the largest share coming from high-income households. CONCLUSIONS Large taxes on SSBs have the potential to positively influence weight outcomes, especially for middle-income households. These taxes would also generate substantial revenue that could be used to fund obesity prevention programs or for other causes.

Conditional Cash Transfers and Agricultural Production: Lessons from the Oportunidades Experience in Mexico

A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half-cent per ounce increase in sugar-sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low-income households than for high-income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low-income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction.

Caloric Beverage Intake Among Adult Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participants

Using the 2006 Homescan panel, we estimate the changes in energy, fat and sodium purchases resulting from a tax that increases the price of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by 20% and the effect of such a tax on body weight. In addition to substitutions that may arise with other beverages, we account for substitutions between SSBs and 12 major food categories. Our main findings are that the tax would result in a decrease in store-bought energy of 24.3kcal per day per person, which would translate into an average weight loss of 1.6 pounds during the first year and a cumulated weight loss of 2.9 pounds in the long run. We do not find evidence of substitution to sugary foods and show that complementary foods could contribute to decreasing energy purchases. Despite their significantly lower price elasticity, the tax has a similar effect on calories for the largest purchasers of SSBs.

Geographic Differences in the Relative Price of Healthy Foods

Food away from home (FAFH) has been associated with poor diet quality in many studies. It is difficult, however, to measure the effect of FAFH on diet quality since many unobserved factors, such as food preferences and time constraints, influence not just our choice of where to eat but also the nutritional quality of what we eat. Using data from 1994-96 and 2003-04, this study applies fixed-effects estimation to control for such unobservable influences and finds that, for the average adult, FAFH increases daily caloric intake and reduces diet quality. The effects vary depending on which meals are consumed away from home. On average, breakfast away from home decreases the number of servings of whole grains and dairy consumed per 1,000 calories and increases the percent of calories from saturated and solid fat, alcohol, and added sugar (SoFAAS) in a day. Dinner away from home reduces the number of servings of vegetables consumed per 1,000 calories for the average adult. Breakfast and lunch away from home increase calories from saturated fat and SoFAAS on average more among dieters than among nondieters. Some of the overall negative dietary effects decreased between 1994-96 and 2003-04, including those on whole grain, sodium, and vegetable consumption.

Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.

The Effect of Early Interventions in Health and Nutrition on On-Time School Enrollment: Evidence from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico

Abstract This paper explores whether cash transfer programmes conditioned on human capital outcomes can influence agricultural production. Programme impact on food consumption from own production, land use, livestock ownership, and agricultural spending are evaluated using first difference and weighted estimators, in which weights are constructed from propensity scores. The programme is found to increase the value and variety of food consumed from own production and to increase land use, livestock ownership and crop spending. Impact estimates are found to differ across land use categories and PROCAMPO participation. Results support the hypothesis that transfers influence agricultural production and impacts are greater for households invested in agriculture.