Jieun Wie

The Global Warming Hiatus Simulated in HadGEM2-AO Based on RCP8.5

National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju 697-845, KoreaAbstract: Despite the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide have steadily increased in atmosphere, the overall trend of theglobal average surface air temperature has stalled during the last decade (2002-present). This phenomenon is often calledhiatus or warming pause, which is challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes warmingenvironment. Our study characterized the hiatus by analyzing the HadGEM2-AO (95 yrs) simulation data based onRCP8.5 scenario. The PC2 time series from the EOF of the zonal mean vertical ocean temperature has been defined asthe index that represents the warming pause. The relationship between the hiatus, ENSO and the changes in climatesystem are identified by utilizing the newly defined PC2. Since the La Nina index (defined as the negative of NINO3index) leads PC2 by about 11 months, it may be possible that the La Nina causes the warming to be interrupted. We alsoshow that the cooling of the climate system closed tied to the heat penetration into the deep ocean, indicating theweakening the warming rate is due to the oceanic heat uptake. Finally, the global warming hiatus is characterized by theanomalous warming in Arctic region as well as the intensification of the trade wind in the equatorial Pacific.Keywords: warming hiatus, HadGEM2-AO, La Nina, oceanic heat uptake요약: 대기 중 이산화탄소 등의 농도가 지속적으로 증가하고 있음에도 최근 10여 년 동안(2002-현재) 전지구 지표 온도는 거의 답보상태에 머물러 있다. 이처럼 온실기체 강제력에도 불구하고, 지구 온난화 경향이 사라진 듯 보이는 현상을 지구 온난화 멈춤(hiatus)이라 한다. 이 연구는 HadGEM2-AO가 모의한 RCP8.5 시나리오 실험(95년간) 자료를 분석하여, 온난화 멈춤 시기의 특징을 분석하였다. 온난화 멈춤 기간을 나타내는 시계열은 동서 평균한 연직 해수 온도 분포를 EOF 분석하여 구한 두 번째 PC (PC2)로 정의하였다. PC2를 이용하여 온난화 멈춤과 엔소와의 관련성, 기후시스템의 변화 등을 분석하였다. 라니냐 지수(NINO3지수에

Development of an Experimental Method for Understanding the Effects of the Coriolis Force on the Typhoon Genesis and its Movement

A simple experimental method was developed to help students understand the effect of the Coriolis force on typhoon genesis and movement. It consists of rotating tanks with and without a sloping bottom, and a small stirrer to produce cyclonic typhoon-like vortices by locally stirring the water. Vortices were able to last for more than 3 minutes without dissipation in the rotating tank. However, vortices were hardly maintained without rotation, and would rather disappear as soon as the stirrer stopped mixing. Since the dynamical properties of the rotating water are similar to those of the atmosphere influenced by the Coriolis force, the experiments show that the Coriolis force is indispensable to the typhoon genesis. When the tank had both the sloping bottom and rotation, vortices would move in a particular direction. Considering the topographical beta effect, this result indicates that typhoons are drifted not only by the steering wind but also by the meridional gradient of the Coriolis force. The methodology developed in this study, would be useful for both students and teachers to better the relationship between the Coriolis force and the typhoon genesis.

Characteristics of Summer Tropospheric Ozone over East Asia in a Chemistry-climate Model Simulation

It is important to understand the variability of tropospheric ozone since it is both a major pollutant affecting human health and a greenhouse gas influencing global climate. We analyze the characteristics of East Asia tropospheric ozone simulated in a chemistry-climate model. We use a global chemical transport model, driven by the prescribed meteorological fields from an air-sea coupled climate model simulation. Compared with observed data, the ozone simulation shows differences in distribution and concentration levels; in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula, a large error occurred in summer. Our analysis reveals that this bias is mainly due to the difference in atmospheric circulation, as the anomalous southerly winds lead to the decrease in tropospheric ozone in this region. In addition, observational data have shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) reduces tropospheric ozone across the southern China/ Korean Peninsula/Japan region. In the model, the ozone changes associated with WNPSH are shifted westward relative to the observations. Our findings suggest that the variations in WNPSH should be considered in predicting tropospheric ozone concentrations.

Seasonal changes in surface ozone over South Korea

Recently, the surface ozone concentration in the Korean peninsula has been increasing more rapidly than in the past, and seasonal changes are appearing such as increases in the number of ozone alerts in springtime. We examined changes in the timing of annual maximum South Korean O3 levels by fitting a sine function to data from 54 air-quality monitoring sites over a 10-year period (2005–2014). The analytical results show that the date of maximum ozone concentration at 23 points in the last 10 years has been advanced by about 2.1 days per year (E-sites), while the remaining 31 points have been delayed by about 2.5 days per year (L-sites). We attribute these differences to seasonal O3 changes: E-sites show a larger increase in O3 level in March–April (MA) than in June–July (JJ), while L-sites show a larger increase in JJ than in MA. Furthermore, these shifts are significantly larger in magnitude than those reported for Europe and North America. We also examined one possible reason for these seasonal differences: the relationship between O3 and precursors such as NO2 and CO. E-sites showed a rapid decrease in NO2 (NO) concentration in MA over the last decade. As a result, the ozone concentration at E-sites seems to have increased due to the absence of ozone destruction by NOx titration in early spring. In L-Sites, the concentrations of ozone precursors such as NO2 and CO in JJ showed a smaller decrease than those at other sites. Therefore, in L-sites, relatively large amounts of ozone precursors were distributed in JJ, implying that more ozone was generated. We suggest that shifts in the South Korean O3 seasonal cycle are due to changes in early spring and summer NO2 (NO) and CO levels; this should be tested further by modeling studies.

A Mechanism of AMOC Decadal Variability in the HadGEM2-AO

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), driven by high density water sinking around Greenland serves as a global climate regulator, because it transports heat and materials in the climate system. We analyzed the mechanism of AMOC on a decadal time scale simulated with the HadGEM2-AO model. The lead-lag regression analysis with AMOC index shows that the decadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean can be considered as a self-sustained variability. This means that the long-term change of AMOC is related to the instability which is originated from the phase difference between the meridional temperature gradient and the ocean circulation. When the overturning circulation becomes stronger, the heat moves northward and decreases the horizontal temperature-dominated density gradients. Subsequently, this leads to weakening of the circulation, which in turn generates the anomalous cooling at high latitudes and, thereby strengthening the AMOC. In this mechanism, the density anomalies at high latitudes are controlled by the thermal advection from low latitudes, meaning that the variation of the AMOC is thermally driven and not salinity driven.

Development of Nonlinear Low-Order Climate Model and Simulated ENSO Characteristics

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a broad band (2-8 year) variability and slowly changing amplitude and period, which are respectively referred to as ENSO irregularity and ENSO modulation. In this study, we developed a nonlinear low-order climate model by combining the Lorenz-63 model of nonlinear atmospheric variability and a simple ENSO model with recharge oscillator characteristics. The model successfully reproduced the ENSO-like variations in the sea surface temperature of eastern Pacific, such as the peak period, wide periodicity, and decadal modulations. The results show that the chaotic atmospheric forcing can lead to ENSO irregularity and ENSO modulation. It is also suggested the high probability of La Nina development could be associated with strong convection of the western warm pool. Although it is simple, this model is expected to be used in research on long-term climate change because it well captures the nonlinear air-sea interactions in the equatorial Pacific.