Joachim Seel

Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends. Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections, 2015 Edition

This presentation, based on research at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and projected near-term PV pricing trends in the United States focusing on the installed price of PV systems. It also attempts to provide clarity surrounding the wide variety of potentially conflicting data available about PV system prices. This PowerPoint is the third edition from this series.

Utility-Scale Solar 2012: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

LBNL-XXXXX E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Utility-Scale Solar 2012 An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States Mark Bolinger and Samantha Weaver Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Environmental Energy Technologies Division September 2013 Download from emp.lbl.gov The work described in this report was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, under Contract No. DE-AC02- 05CH11231.

Maximizing MWh: A statistical analysis of the performance of utility-scale photovoltaic projects in the United States

Despite significant cost declines utility-scale solar projects have to perform well over their lifetime in order to return profits in a low-PPA environment of under

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

50/MWh. Using multivariate regression analysis this paper examines the 2014 Net Capacity Factors for 128 utility-scale projects that came online before the end of 2013 and explores the impact (in decreasing order of importance) of global horizontal irradiance, tracking technology, inverter loading ratios and project vintage plus three other interactive variables on performance. The model complies with the assumptions of OLS regressions and explains 93% of the observed NCF variation.

Diffusion of Innovations: Interplay of Social, Economic, Technological, and Policy Drivers in the Solar Industry—Summary of UT Austin Student Capstone Research Projects

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

Author(s): Wiser, RH; Darghouth, NR; Hoen, B; Barbose, GL; Seel, J; Rai, V; Beck, A; Sekar, A; Reeves, DC; Funkhouser, E; Shaughnessy, EO; Sigrin, B; Canfield, C | Abstract: The University of Texas at Austin’s Policy Research Project (PRP), a nine-month (two semesters) capstone, is a keystone of the core curriculum at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. In PRPs, small groups of students, under the mentorship of a faculty director, take on real-world problems that require special knowledge and skill sets. PRPs expose students to challenges in formulating and executing research, and in communicating academic research and related complex data to broader stakeholder communities and decision makers. The PRP structure is an innovative and effective approach for integrating research within the teaching and training of graduate students who are preparing themselves to address important real-world problems at the intersection of society, economics, technology, and policy. The project summaries below describe seven papers developed during September 2017 – May 2018 as part of a PRP on “Diffusion of Innovations: Interplay of Social, Economic, Technological, and Policy Drivers in the Solar Industry.” Twenty graduate students, drawn from the LBJ School’s Masters in Public Affairs and Masters in Global Policy Studies programs and the Jackson School Geoscience’s Energy and Earth Resources program, participated in this PRP. Dr. Varun Rai, Associate Professor and Associate Dean for Research at the LBJ School, directed the PRP, with support from his research team including: Dr. Ariane Beck, Dr. Ashok Sekar, D. Cale Reeves, and Erik Funkhouser. Clients for the project included the U.S. Department of Energy (Casey Canfield), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Ben Hoen, Galen Barbose Joachim Seel, Naim Darghouth, Ryan Wiser), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Benjamin Sigrin, Eric O’Shaughnessy). The seven projects separately addressed one of the following topics: (1) low- and middle-income PV adoption, (2) modeling economic and information intervention design, (3) evaluation of DOE’s Solar in Your Community Challenge, (4) property value impacts near large-scale solar facilities, (5) solar market maturity and evolution of business models, (6) social media data for predicting PV adoption, and (7) individual-level variation in adoption of innovations. Many of the papers relied on data collected and curated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, including data embedded within the annual Tracking the Sun and Utility-Scale Solar reports. Each of the seven teams in the PRP prepared a research paper. The PRP culminated with a full-day conference at UT Austin in May 2018 to present findings from the seven projects in this PRP to a broad audience of about 75 experts from academia, national labs, industry, and government from across the country.

Power Plant Retirements: Trends and Possible Drivers

Author(s): Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH | Abstract: Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.

An analysis of residential PV system price differences between the United States and Germany

This paper synthesizes available data on historical and planned power plant retirements. Specifically, we present data on historical generation capacity additions and retirements over time, and the types of plants recently retired and planned for retirement. We then present data on the age of plants that have recently retired or that have plans to retire. We also review the characteristics of plants that recently retired or plan to retire vs. those that continue to operate, focusing on plant size, age, heat rate, and SO2 emissions. Finally, we show the level of recent thermal plant retirements on a regional basis and correlate those data with a subset of possible factors that may be contributing to retirement decisions. This basic data synthesis cannot be used to precisely estimate the relative magnitude of retirement drivers. Nor do we explore every possible driver for retirement decisions. Moreover, future retirement decisions may be influenced by different factors than those that have affected past decisions. Nonetheless, it is clear that recently retired plants are relatively old, and that plants with stated planned retirement dates are—on average—no younger. We observe that retired plants are smaller, older, less efficient, and more polluting than operating plants. Based on simple correlation graphics, the strongest predictors of regional retirement differences appear to include SO2 emissions rates (for coal), planning reserve margins (for all thermal units), variations in load growth or contraction (for all thermal units), and the age of older thermal plans (for all thermal units). Additional apparent predictors of regional retirements include the ratio of coal to gas prices and delivered natural gas prices. Other factors appear to have played lesser roles, including the penetration variable renewable energy (VRE), recent non-VRE capacity additions, and whether the region hosts an ISO/RTO.