Joanne Turnbull

Safety and effectiveness of nurse telephone consultation in out of hours primary care: randomised controlled trial

Abstract Objective To determine the safety and effectiveness of nurse telephone consultation in out of hours primary care by investigating adverse events and the management of calls. Design Block randomised controlled trial over a year of 156 matched pairs of days and weekends in 26 blocks. One of each matched pair was randomised to receive the intervention. Setting One 55 member general practice cooperative serving 97 000 registered patients in Wiltshire. Subjects All patients contacting the out of hours service or about whom contact was made during specified times over the trial year. Intervention A nurse telephone consultation service integrated within a general practice cooperative. The out of hours period was 615 pm to 1115 pm from Monday to Friday, 1100 am to 1115 pm on Saturday, and 800 am to 1115 pm on Sunday. Experienced and specially trained nurses received, assessed, and managed calls from patients or their carers. Management options included telephone advice; referral to the general practitioner on duty (for telephone advice, an appointment at a primary care centre, or a home visit); referral to the emergency service or advice to attend accident and emergency. Calls were managed with the help of decision support software. Main outcome measures Deaths within seven days of a contact with the out of hours service; emergency hospital admissions within 24 hours and within three days of contact; attendance at accident and emergency within three days of a contact; number and management of calls in each arm of the trial. Results 14 492 calls were received during the specified times in the trial year (7308 in the control arm and 7184 in the intervention arm) concerning 10 134 patients (10.4% of the registered population). There were no substantial differences in the age and sex of patients in the intervention and control groups, though male patients were underrepresented overall. Reasons for calling the service were consistent with previous studies. Nurses managed 49.8% of calls during intervention periods without referral to a general practitioner. A 69% reduction in telephone advice from a general practitioner, together with a 38% reduction in patient attendance at primary care centres and a 23% reduction in home visits was observed during intervention periods. Statistical equivalence was observed in the number of deaths within seven days, in the number of emergency hospital admissions, and in the number of attendances at accident and emergency departments. Conclusions Nurse telephone consultation produced substantial changes in call management, reducing overall workload of general practitioners by 50% while allowing callers faster access to health information and advice. It was not associated with an increase in the number of adverse events. This model of out of hours primary care is safe and effective.

Emergency and on-demand health care: modelling a large complex system

This paper describes how system dynamics was used as a central part of a whole-system review of emergency and on-demand health care in Nottingham, England. Based on interviews with 30 key individuals across health and social care, a ‘conceptual map’ of the system was developed, showing potential patient pathways through the system. This was used to construct a stock-flow model, populated with current activity data, in order to simulate patient flows and to identify system bottle-necks. Without intervention, assuming current trends continue, Nottingham hospitals are unlikely to reach elective admission targets or achieve the government target of 82% bed occupancy. Admissions from general practice had the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Preventing a small number of emergency admissions in elderly patients showed a substantial effect, reducing bed occupancy by 1% per annum over 5 years. Modelling indicated a range of undesirable outcomes associated with continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable potential to intervene to alleviate these problems, in particular by increasing the care options available in the community.

Cost analysis of nurse telephone consultation in out of hours primary care: evidence from a randomised controlled trial

Abstract Objective: To undertake an economic evaluation of nurse telephone consultation using decision support software in comparison with usual general practice care provided by a general practice cooperative. Design: Cost analysis from an NHS perspective using stochastic data from a randomised controlled trial. Setting: General practice cooperative with 55 general practitioners serving 97 000 registered patients in Wiltshire, England. Subjects: All patients contacting the service, or about whom the service was contacted during the trial year (January 1997 to January 1998). Main outcome measures: Costs and savings to the NHS during the trial year. Results: The cost of providing nurse telephone consultation was £81 237 per annum. This, however, determined a £94 422 reduction of other costs for the NHS arising from reduced emergency admissions to hospital. Using point estimates for savings, the cost analysis, combined with the analysis of outcomes, showed a dominance situation for the intervention over general practice cooperative care alone. If a larger improvement in outcomes is assumed (upper 95% confidence limit) NHS savings increase to £123 824 per annum. Savings of only £3728 would, however, arise in a scenario where lower 95% confidence limits for outcome differences were observed. To break even, the intervention would have needed to save 138 emergency hospital admissions per year, around 90% of the effect achieved in the trial. Additional savings of £16 928 for general practice arose from reduced travel to visit patients at home and fewer surgery appointments within three days of a call. Conclusions: Nurse telephone consultation in out of hours primary care may reduce NHS costs in the long term by reducing demand for emergency admission to hospital. General practitioners currently bear most of the cost of nurse telephone consultation and benefit least from the savings associated with it. This indicates that the service produces benefits in terms of service quality, which are beyond the reach of this cost analysis.

Reviewing emergency care systems I: insights from system dynamics modelling.

Objectives: To describe the components of an emergency and urgent care system within one health authority and to investigate ways in which patient flows and system capacity could be improved. Methods: Using a qualitative system dynamics (SD) approach, data from interviews were used to build a conceptual map of the system illustrating patient pathways from entry to discharge. The map was used to construct a quantitative SD model populated with demographic and activity data to simulate patterns of demand, activity, contingencies, and system bottlenecks. Using simulation experiments, a range of scenarios were tested to determine their likely effectiveness in meeting future objectives and targets. Results: Emergency hospital admissions grew at a faster annual rate than the national average for 1998–2001. Without intervention, and assuming this trend continued, acute hospitals were likely to have difficulty sustaining levels of elective work, in reaching elective admission targets and in achieving bed occupancy targets. General practice admissions exerted the greatest influence on occupancy rates. Prevention of emergency admissions for older people (3%–6% each year) reduced bed occupancy in both hospitals by 1% per annum over five years. Prevention of emergency admissions for patients with chronic respiratory disease affected occupancy less noticeably, but because of the seasonal pattern of admissions, had an effect on peak winter occupancy. Conclusions: Modelling showed the potential consequences of continued growth in demand for emergency care, but also considerable scope to intervene to ameliorate the worst case scenarios, in particular by increasing the care management options available in the community.

Overnight calls in primary care: randomised controlled trial of management using nurse telephone consultation

We recently published the results of a randomised controlled trial of a nurse telephone consultation service in primary care out of hours.1 The new service, operating at evenings and weekends, significantly reduced general practitioners’ workload and was at least as safe as the existing out of hours service. Contacts diminish sharply after about 10 pm,2 and, anecdotally, a higher proportion of night calls necessitate consultation with a general practitioner. We report here a parallel trial aimed at establishing whether nurse telephone consultation was equally effective in managing workload at night.

Using computer decision support systems in NHS emergency and urgent care: ethnographic study using normalisation process theory

BackgroundInformation and communication technologies (ICTs) are often proposed as ‘technological fixes’ for problems facing healthcare. They promise to deliver services more quickly and cheaply. Yet research on the implementation of ICTs reveals a litany of delays, compromises and failures. Case studies have established that these technologies are difficult to embed in everyday healthcare.MethodsWe undertook an ethnographic comparative analysis of a single computer decision support system in three different settings to understand the implementation and everyday use of this technology which is designed to deal with calls to emergency and urgent care services. We examined the deployment of this technology in an established 999 ambulance call-handling service, a new single point of access for urgent care and an established general practice out-of-hours service. We used Normalization Process Theory as a framework to enable systematic cross-case analysis.ResultsOur data comprise nearly 500 hours of observation, interviews with 64 call-handlers, and stakeholders and documents about the technology and settings. The technology has been implemented and is used distinctively in each setting reflecting important differences between work and contexts. Using Normalisation Process Theory we show how the work (collective action) of implementing the system and maintaining its routine use was enabled by a range of actors who established coherence for the technology, secured buy-in (cognitive participation) and engaged in on-going appraisal and adjustment (reflexive monitoring).ConclusionsHuge effort was expended and continues to be required to implement and keep this technology in use. This innovation must be understood both as a computer technology and as a set of practices related to that technology, kept in place by a network of actors in particular contexts. While technologies can be ‘made to work’ in different settings, successful implementation has been achieved, and will only be maintained, through the efforts of those involved in the specific settings and if the wider context continues to support the coherence, cognitive participation, and reflective monitoring processes that surround this collective action. Implementation is more than simply putting technologies in place – it requires new resources and considerable effort, perhaps on an on-going basis.

Reviewing emergency care systems. 2: measuring patient preferences using a discrete choice experiment

Objective: To investigate patients’ strength of preferences for attributes associated with modernising delivery of out of hours emergency care services in Nottingham. Methods: A discrete choice experiment was applied to quantify preferences for key attributes of out of hours emergency care. The attributes reflected the findings of previous research, current policy initiatives, and discussions with local key stakeholders. A self complete questionnaire was administered to NHS Direct callers and adults attending accident and emergency, GP services and NHS walk-in centre. Regression analysis was used to estimate the relative importance of the different attributes. Results: Response was 74% (n = 457) although 61% (n = 378) were useable. All attributes were statistically significant. Being consulted by a doctor was the most important attribute. This was followed by being consulted by a nurse, being kept informed about waiting time, and quality of the consultation. Respondents were prepared to wait an extra 2 hours 20 minutes to be consulted by a doctor. There were no measurable preference differences between patients surveyed at different NHS entry points. Younger respondents preferred single telephone call access to health care out of hours. Although having services provided close to home and making contact in person were generally preferred, they were less important than others, suggesting that a range of service locations may be acceptable to patients. Conclusions: This study showed that local solutions for reforming emergency out of hours care should take account of the strength of patient preferences. The method was acceptable and the results have directly informed the development of a local service framework for emergency care.

The Poole Diabetes Study: how many cases of Type 2 diabetes are diagnosed each year during normal health care in a defined community?

UNLABELLED We have investigated the incidence of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in the Poole area and extrapolated it to the rest of the UK. METHODS this prospective observational study used a surveillance programme in primary and secondary care. We identified all cases of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes mellitus occurring from 1st May 1996 to 30th June 1998 through the normal health care process without any active screening in 186889 people registered with 24 primary care practices in the Poole area. RESULTS the 1996 prevalence of diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in this population was 1.59 (95% CI 1.53-1.65%)%. During the first 24 months of the study, 706 new cases of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, 382 men and 324 women, were identified. The crude annual incidence of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes, thus was 1.93/1000 (95% CI 1.73-2.13%) and age/sex adjusted incidence was 1.67/1000 (95% CI 1.49-1.84%). The age-adjusted incidence was higher in men, 1.86/1000 (95% CI 1.60-2.13), than in women, 1.48/1000 (95% CI 1.25-1.71%), relative risk 1.26 (95% CI 0.997-1.527%), but this difference did not reach statistical significance. Mean HbA1c at diagnosis was 10.8 (S.D. 2.9%)%. Men were younger at diagnosis than women (mean age, 62.9 vs. 65.9%, P<0.01). CONCLUSION in UK, prior to the change in the WHO diagnostic criteria for diabetes, we estimate that over 98000 new cases of Type 2 diabetes were diagnosed each year.

The introduction of integrated out-of-hours arrangements in England: a discrete choice experiment of public preferences for alternative models of care

Objective  To establish which generic attributes of general practice out‐of‐hours health services are important to the public.

Effect of introduction of integrated out of hours care in England: observational study

Abstract Objectives To quantify service integration achieved in the national exemplar programme for single call access to out of hours care through NHS Direct, and its effect on the wider health system. Design Observational before and after study of demand, activity, and trends in the use of other health services. Participants 34 general practice cooperatives with NHS Direct partners (exemplars): four were case exemplars; 10 control cooperatives. Setting England. Main outcome measures Extent of integration; changes in demand, activity, and trends in emergency ambulance transports; attendances at emergency departments, minor injuries units, and NHS walk-in centres; and emergency admissions to hospital in the first year. Results Of 31 distinct exemplars, 21 (68%) integrated all out of hours call management. Nine (29%) achieved single call access for all patients. In the only case exemplar where direct comparison was possible, a higher proportion of telephone calls were handled by cooperative nurses before integration than by NHS Direct afterwards (2622/6687 (39%) v 2092/7086 (30%): P < 0.0001). Other case exemplars did not achieve 30%. A small but significant downturn in overall demand for care seen in two case exemplars was also seen in the control cooperatives. The number of emergency ambulance transports increased in three of the four case exemplars after integration, reaching statistical significance in two (5%, −0.02% to 10%, P = 0.06; 6%, 1% to 12%, P = 0.02; 7%, 3% to 12%, P = 0.001). This was always accompanied by a significant reduction in the number of calls to the integrated service. Conclusion Most exemplars achieved integration of call management but not single call access for patients. Most patients made at least two telephone calls to contact NHS Direct, and then waited for a nurse to call back. Evidence for transfer of demand from case exemplars to 999 ambulance services may be amenable to change, but NHS Direct may not have sufficient capacity to support national implementation of the programme.