Johannes G. Reiter

The molecular evolution of acquired resistance to targeted EGFR blockade in colorectal cancers

Colorectal tumours that are wild type for KRAS are often sensitive to EGFR blockade, but almost always develop resistance within several months of initiating therapy. The mechanisms underlying this acquired resistance to anti-EGFR antibodies are largely unknown. This situation is in marked contrast to that of small-molecule targeted agents, such as inhibitors of ABL, EGFR, BRAF and MEK, in which mutations in the genes encoding the protein targets render the tumours resistant to the effects of the drugs. The simplest hypothesis to account for the development of resistance to EGFR blockade is that rare cells with KRAS mutations pre-exist at low levels in tumours with ostensibly wild-type KRAS genes. Although this hypothesis would seem readily testable, there is no evidence in pre-clinical models to support it, nor is there data from patients. To test this hypothesis, we determined whether mutant KRAS DNA could be detected in the circulation of 28 patients receiving monotherapy with panitumumab, a therapeutic anti-EGFR antibody. We found that 9 out of 24 (38%) patients whose tumours were initially KRAS wild type developed detectable mutations in KRAS in their sera, three of which developed multiple different KRAS mutations. The appearance of these mutations was very consistent, generally occurring between 5 and 6 months following treatment. Mathematical modelling indicated that the mutations were present in expanded subclones before the initiation of panitumumab treatment. These results suggest that the emergence of KRAS mutations is a mediator of acquired resistance to EGFR blockade and that these mutations can be detected in a non-invasive manner. They explain why solid tumours develop resistance to targeted therapies in a highly reproducible fashion.

Mutations driving CLL and their evolution in progression and relapse

Which genetic alterations drive tumorigenesis and how they evolve over the course of disease and therapy are central questions in cancer biology. Here we identify 44 recurrently mutated genes and 11 recurrent somatic copy number variations through whole-exome sequencing of 538 chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and matched germline DNA samples, 278 of which were collected in a prospective clinical trial. These include previously unrecognized putative cancer drivers (RPS15, IKZF3), and collectively identify RNA processing and export, MYC activity, and MAPK signalling as central pathways involved in CLL. Clonality analysis of this large data set further enabled reconstruction of temporal relationships between driver events. Direct comparison between matched pre-treatment and relapse samples from 59 patients demonstrated highly frequent clonal evolution. Thus, large sequencing data sets of clinically informative samples enable the discovery of novel genes associated with cancer, the network of relationships between the driver events, and their impact on disease relapse and clinical outcome.

Evolutionary dynamics of cancer in response to targeted combination therapy

In solid tumors, targeted treatments can lead to dramatic regressions, but responses are often short-lived because resistant cancer cells arise. The major strategy proposed for overcoming resistance is combination therapy. We present a mathematical model describing the evolutionary dynamics of lesions in response to treatment. We first studied 20 melanoma patients receiving vemurafenib. We then applied our model to an independent set of pancreatic, colorectal, and melanoma cancer patients with metastatic disease. We find that dual therapy results in long-term disease control for most patients, if there are no single mutations that cause cross-resistance to both drugs; in patients with large disease burden, triple therapy is needed. We also find that simultaneous therapy with two drugs is much more effective than sequential therapy. Our results provide realistic expectations for the efficacy of new drug combinations and inform the design of trials for new cancer therapeutics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00747.001

Limited heterogeneity of known driver gene mutations among the metastases of individual patients with pancreatic cancer

The extent of heterogeneity among driver gene mutations present in naturally occurring metastases—that is, treatment-naive metastatic disease—is largely unknown. To address this issue, we carried out 60× whole-genome sequencing of 26 metastases from four patients with pancreatic cancer. We found that identical mutations in known driver genes were present in every metastatic lesion for each patient studied. Passenger gene mutations, which do not have known or predicted functional consequences, accounted for all intratumoral heterogeneity. Even with respect to these passenger mutations, our analysis suggests that the genetic similarity among the founding cells of metastases was higher than that expected for any two cells randomly taken from a normal tissue. The uniformity of known driver gene mutations among metastases in the same patient has critical and encouraging implications for the success of future targeted therapies in advanced-stage disease.

Origins of lymphatic and distant metastases in human colorectal cancer

Metastases undergo reconstruction Cancer cells from primary tumors can migrate to regional lymph nodes and distant organs. The prevailing model in oncology is that lymph node metastases give rise to distant metastases. This “sequential progression model” is the rationale for surgical removal of tumor-draining lymph nodes. Naxerova et al. used phylogenetic methods to reconstruct the evolutionary relationship of primary tumors, lymph node metastases, and distant metastases in 17 patients with colorectal cancer (see the Perspective by Markowitz). The sequential progression model applied to only one-third of the patients. In the other two-thirds, distant metastases and lymph node metastases originated from independent subclones within the primary tumor. Science, this issue p. 55; see also p. 35 Contrary to expectation, lymphatic and distant metastases often arise independently in human colorectal cancer. The spread of cancer cells from primary tumors to regional lymph nodes is often associated with reduced survival. One prevailing model to explain this association posits that fatal, distant metastases are seeded by lymph node metastases. This view provides a mechanistic basis for the TNM staging system and is the rationale for surgical resection of tumor-draining lymph nodes. Here we examine the evolutionary relationship between primary tumor, lymph node, and distant metastases in human colorectal cancer. Studying 213 archival biopsy samples from 17 patients, we used somatic variants in hypermutable DNA regions to reconstruct high-confidence phylogenetic trees. We found that in 65% of cases, lymphatic and distant metastases arose from independent subclones in the primary tumor, whereas in 35% of cases they shared common subclonal origin. Therefore, two different lineage relationships between lymphatic and distant metastases exist in colorectal cancer.

The effect of one additional driver mutation on tumor progression.

Tumor growth is caused by the acquisition of driver mutations, which enhance the net reproductive rate of cells. Driver mutations may increase cell division, reduce cell death, or allow cells to overcome density‐limiting effects. We study the dynamics of tumor growth as one additional driver mutation is acquired. Our models are based on two‐type branching processes that terminate in either tumor disappearance or tumor detection. In our first model, both cell types grow exponentially, with a faster rate for cells carrying the additional driver. We find that the additional driver mutation does not affect the survival probability of the lesion, but can substantially reduce the time to reach the detectable size if the lesion is slow growing. In our second model, cells lacking the additional driver cannot exceed a fixed carrying capacity, due to density limitations. In this case, the time to detection depends strongly on this carrying capacity. Our model provides a quantitative framework for studying tumor dynamics during different stages of progression. We observe that early, small lesions need additional drivers, while late stage metastases are only marginally affected by them. These results help to explain why additional driver mutations are typically not detected in fast‐growing metastases.

Reconstructing metastatic seeding patterns of human cancers

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of metastases is critical for understanding their basic biological principles and has profound clinical implications. Genome-wide sequencing data has enabled modern phylogenomic methods to accurately dissect subclones and their phylogenies from noisy and impure bulk tumour samples at unprecedented depth. However, existing methods are not designed to infer metastatic seeding patterns. Here we develop a tool, called Treeomics, to reconstruct the phylogeny of metastases and map subclones to their anatomic locations. Treeomics infers comprehensive seeding patterns for pancreatic, ovarian, and prostate cancers. Moreover, Treeomics correctly disambiguates true seeding patterns from sequencing artifacts; 7% of variants were misclassified by conventional statistical methods. These artifacts can skew phylogenies by creating illusory tumour heterogeneity among distinct samples. In silico benchmarking on simulated tumour phylogenies across a wide range of sample purities (15–95%) and sequencing depths (25-800 × ) demonstrates the accuracy of Treeomics compared with existing methods.

Forgiver Triumphs in Alternating Prisoner's Dilemma

Cooperative behavior, where one individual incurs a cost to help another, is a wide spread phenomenon. Here we study direct reciprocity in the context of the alternating Prisoners Dilemma. We consider all strategies that can be implemented by one and two-state automata. We calculate the payoff matrix of all pairwise encounters in the presence of noise. We explore deterministic selection dynamics with and without mutation. Using different error rates and payoff values, we observe convergence to a small number of distinct equilibria. Two of them are uncooperative strict Nash equilibria representing always-defect (ALLD) and Grim. The third equilibrium is mixed and represents a cooperative alliance of several strategies, dominated by a strategy which we call Forgiver. Forgiver cooperates whenever the opponent has cooperated; it defects once when the opponent has defected, but subsequently Forgiver attempts to re-establish cooperation even if the opponent has defected again. Forgiver is not an evolutionarily stable strategy, but the alliance, which it rules, is asymptotically stable. For a wide range of parameter values the most commonly observed outcome is convergence to the mixed equilibrium, dominated by Forgiver. Our results show that although forgiving might incur a short-term loss it can lead to a long-term gain. Forgiveness facilitates stable cooperation in the presence of exploitation and noise.

TTP: Tool for Tumor Progression

In this work we present a flexible tool for tumor progression, which simulates the evolutionary dynamics of cancer. Tumor progression implements a multi-type branching process where the key parameters are the fitness landscape, the mutation rate, and the average time of cell division. The fitness of a cancer cell depends on the mutations it has accumulated. The input to our tool could be any fitness landscape, mutation rate, and cell division time, and the tool produces the growth dynamics and all relevant statistics.

Pancreatic cancer: Pancreatic carcinogenesis-several small steps or one giant leap?

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is thought to develop through the stepwise accumulation of cancer gene mutations. A new study suggests that 16% of PDACs exhibit genetic rearrangements that simultaneously altered two or more cancer driver genes. These findings challenge the current models of PDAC development, but arguably remain compatible with a stepwise tumour progression.