John Ahmet Erkoyuncu

Cost Engineering for manufacturing: Current and future research

The article aims to identify the scientific challenges and point out future research directions on Cost Engineering. The research areas covered in this article include Design Cost; Manufacturing Cost; Operating Cost; Life Cycle Cost; Risk and Uncertainty management and Affordability Engineering. Collected information at the Academic Forum on Cost Engineering held at Cranfield University in 2008 and further literature review findings are presented. The forum set the scope of the Cost Engineering research, a brainstorming was held on the forum and literatures were further reviewed to understand the current and future practices in cost engineering. The main benefits of the article include coverage of the current research on cost engineering from different perspectives and the future research areas on Cost Engineering.

Data uncertainty assessment and information flow analysis for product-service systems in a library case study

The provision of service is increasingly becoming a key driver for delivering customer value. This emphasis on service provision is promoted by approaches such as Product-Service Systems (PSSs) that deliver value in use based on integrated products and services. However, to achieve effective delivery of services, it is important to manage information flow and data uncertainty associated with information requirement. The paper proposes a methodology that consists of: (a) the assessment of data uncertainty through the numeral, unit, spread, assessment and pedigree approach and a pedigree matrix consisting of data uncertainties to be scored based on their influence on the system; and (b) the analysis of information flow by means of data flow diagrams that depict information exchanges and an info-dynamic engine that measures the efficiency and recommends improvements for information flows in PSSs. A library case study was undertaken to show how such a methodology can be applied.

Identifying uncertainties for industrial service delivery: a systems approach

Service delivery by industrial firms is increasingly seen as an influential factor for sustained profits. Across industry, this is typically achieved through long term contracts that aim to achieve performance, results, solutions, and so on. However, the increasing shift towards a service-oriented approach for production has created a number of challenges that originate from uncertainties that are experienced across supply networks. Along these lines, this research adopts a soft systems based approach to identify and categorise the uncertainties that are experienced particularly at the bidding stage of service contracts. These uncertainties significantly affect the cost and performance of service-oriented projects. This article presents the findings of a 3-year study with 22 aerospace experts from naval and defence industries that acted as key informants. It seeks to contribute to knowledge in research and industry by identifying and categorising uncertainties for industrial service delivery. Using the findings of the study, the article concludes by discussing implications and future challenges for academe and practice.

Uncertainty driven service cost estimation for decision support at the bidding stage

Service cost estimation attempts to predict future costs associated to the design and delivery of services that support goods and equipment or the actions of customers. In particular, the bidding stage poses challenges due to the uncertainties that are experienced originating from lack of information and knowledge about service requirements. This research paper presents and analyses the benefits of using the Uncertainty Tool for Assessment and Simulation of Cost (U-TASC). U-TASC offers a methodology to improve service cost estimation during the bidding stage of service contracts through a systematic process to identify, evaluate and integrate uncertainty to cost. A case study is applied with three contracting scenarios within a major multinational aerospace organisation. Lessons learnt from the development and evaluation of the U-TASC methodology are used to discuss applications, generalisation potential, limitations and future research potentials.

An innovative uncertainty management framework to support contracting for product-service availability

Purpose – In the light of challenges experienced in cost estimation at the bidding stage of complex engineering services in the defence industry (e.g. contracting for availability), the purpose of this paper is to present a framework to manage the influence of uncertainty on cost estimates. Design/methodology/approach – The research applied the Soft Systems Methodology and benefitted from interaction with four major organisations in the defence industry through document sharing, semi-structured interviews, workshops, and case studies. Findings – The framework is composed of seven stages to plan, identify, prioritise, classify, and manage cost uncertainties. Through the validation of three case studies some of the key benefits of the framework were realised in project planning, uncertainty visualisation, and capability management. Research limitations/implications – The research has been applied in the defence sector in the UK and focuses on the bidding stage. Further research needs to be applied to confir...

Service Uncertainty and Cost for Product Service Systems

Service orientation in the defence and aerospace industries through availability contracts is creating challenges in cost estimation due to uncertainties. The chapter initially presents the topic of uncertainty in service delivery, which subsequently leads to a classification of uncertainties. Then, the current uncertainty-based service cost estimation processes are explained. By identifying the existing challenges, an improved framework to estimate costs is highlighted. This firstly involves enhanced understanding of the influence of uncertainties and cost estimation capabilities through the analytical hierarchy process and the Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree (NUSAP) Matrix approach. Secondly, it involves using agent-based modelling to represent the dynamism in service cost estimates. The chapter ends with a case study application of the approach.

Service Cost Estimation Challenges in Industrial Product-Service Systems

The aim of this keynote paper is to demonstrate that with emerging challenges experienced in delivering integrated product and service solutions the adopted techniques for service cost estimation is evolving. Whilst representing the current practice and existing challenges in service cost estimation, through interaction with four major organisations in the defence industry, the paper focuses on the implementation of agent based modelling (ABM) as a possible approach to be adopted more prevalently in the future. Subsequent to presenting a sample agent based model, the paper presents three architectures of ABM that would potentially be considered for service cost estimation, including representations of interaction across organisations, equipments and humans.

Mitigating uncertainty for industrial service operations: a multi case study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolution of industrial service uncertainties and the approaches for mitigating these uncertainties. The paper also sheds light on how the interplay of potential uncertainties due to service operation challenges shapes the decisiveness of product-centric businesses. Design/methodology/approach – To better understand how industrial firms mitigate uncertainties of industrial service provision by their supply chains, the authors adopted a qualitative multi-case logic methodology. The approach is based on a research model of uncertainty avoidance and uncertainty reduction which the authors applied in an exploratory study with three major multi-national firms in the aerospace industry: BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin and Rolls-Royce. Findings – From the analysis, the authors found that to mitigate industrial service uncertainty, there is a need for aftermarket-oriented organisation, audit-oriented governance, relationship-oriented intelligence and lifecycle-or...

The Future of Maintenance for Industrial Product-Service Systems

This paper aims to present a landscape of interests that are emerging for the future of maintenance in Industrial Product-Service Systems. Across manufacturing industries there is growing interest to integrate products and services, where maintenance has a key role in delivering performance driven solutions (e.g. availability). It is observed that industry is aiming to gain competitive advantage, and the customer is increasingly intending to transfer the risks and uncertainties as reflected in contracts. The shift towards services is also putting more pressure on industry to accurately predict service requirements in terms of resulting cost and performance that enables the service provision. In light of these drivers, technologies and organisational themes are emerging to reduce uncertainty and cost for the in-service phase as explained and discussed in the paper.

A framework for cost evaluation in product service system configuration

Configuration systems are increasingly used as a means for efficient design of customised product service systems (PSS) to satisfy diverse customer needs. Cost evaluation is thereby important to assist the configuration engineers in making decisions on feasible configuration solutions. However, little research attention has been received until recently. To fill this gap, this paper contributes in developing a framework for cost evaluation in PSS configuration. A holistic view of PSS configuration, the three-dimensional PSS cost element, and a life cycle-oriented cost evaluation approach are successively proposed. The framework is thereby established with a number of parts, including the preparatory stage, the evaluation stage and the configuration stage. A pump PSS is illustrated to validate the developed framework. Four feasible configuration solutions in one configuration activity are evaluated and compared. The configuration engineers are thus assisted with the decision on selecting the one with the least cost.