John Fuh-sheng Hsieh

Ethnicity, National Identity, and Domestic Politics in Taiwan

Taiwan is a divided society; divided along the lines of ethnicity and national identity. During much of the 1980s and earlier, ethnicity played an important role for the opposition movement to mobilize popular support in fighting for democracy, but as Taiwan becomes democratic, national identity turns out to be more salient than ethnicity in shaping political competition on the island. As shown by survey data, national identity is indeed the dominant cleavage underpinning Taiwan’s party system. And since there is a high degree of stability in the distribution of the popular attitude toward the national identity issue, we also witness a relatively stable alignment between the two major political groupings, the pan-Kuomintang (KMT) and pan-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) camps, even though there have been splits within each camp. Although such a cleavage is highly contentious, and could bring about serious conflicts in the society, thus far, as a result of the convergence toward the middle point, namely, the status quo, and the threat of a formidable enemy across the Taiwan Strait, the situation has not got out of hand. Since the division between Taiwan and China may not be easily resolved, national identity will remain a major political issue in Taiwan for years to come.

Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party-Dominant Democracy: Taiwan's 1996 Presidential Election

Several theories of voting behavior suggest that voters evaluate candidates in an election based on the candidates; past performance and future promise. There is a dispute in the theory and ambiguity in empirical evidence about which direction voters look when choosing candidates: do voters weigh past performance or future promise more heavily in the voting booth? This paper contributes empirical support to the prospective voting model by testing both retrospective and prospective voting in a pivotal case: the 1996 Taiwan presidential election. Taiwans 1996 election represents the first popular election of the president from a field of candidates that included the long-ruling KMT party incumbent, Lee Tent-hui. In the Taiwan presidential election, voter evaluations of Lees prospects for managing the economy in the future prove statistically significant as a predictor of voter choice. Voter evaluations of recent economic conditions do not appear closely related to voter choice. Voters; perceptions of the candidates; abilities to influence ethnic relations, domestic safety, and international security are better predictors of the vote than past ethnic relations or past security problems, even in the face of Communist Chinas pre-election aggression toward Taiwan.

Can Duverger's Law be extended to SNTV? The case of Taiwan's legislative Yuan elections

Duvergers Law relating the single-member plurality system and the two-party system has recently been extended to the single nontransferable vote (SNTV), a system used in Japan prior to 1994 and in use in the Republic of China on Taiwan. The extended Law suggests that in districts in which there are M winners, there will be M+1 viable candidates. Our analysis of the four Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan since 1986 offers support for this extension in districts with small magnitudes, but it also confirms that the larger the district magnitude, the more likely it is that the number of candidates will be greater than M+1. We explain this result on the basis of the lower reliability of information when the number of candidates is large and on the deceptive nature of small vote percentages. Evidently as a direct consequence of the larger numbers of candidates, the larger the district magnitude the more proportional the electoral results tend to be, albeit up to a point, due to differential degrees of organization among the political parties in Taiwan.

East Asian culture and democratic transition, with special reference to the case of Taiwan

The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors contributing to recent democratic transitions in East Asia with special reference to the case of Taiwan. The study of Taiwans democratization process provides us with interesting theoretical implications. Despite its Confucian heritage, Taiwan decided to move toward democratization. Attitudinal change on the part of both the general public and the political elites was certainly an important factor, but the emergence of a (quasi-)pluralistic social order may have been more consequential. The study concludes that a political culture with strong group consciousness is not necessarily detrimental to democratization.

National identity and Taiwan's Mainland China policy

Taiwan is a mildly divided society—divided essentially along the lines of national identity. Indeed, there is no doubt that national identity is the dominant factor affecting Taiwans mainland China policy. Other factors such as business interests and security concerns may enter the picture from time to time, but they often get bogged down in the national identity controversies. As a matter of fact, there is high correlation between peoples attitudes toward business and security concerns and their positions on the national identity issue. The key to understanding Taiwans mainland China policy is thus the distribution of voters on the national identity issue and how it is translated into the political fortunes of various political parties in the electoral game.Taiwan is a mildly divided society—divided essentially along the lines of national identity. Indeed, there is no doubt that national identity is the dominant factor affecting Taiwans mainland China policy. Other factors such as business interests and security concerns may enter the picture from time to time, but they often get bogged down in the national identity controversies. As a matter of fact, there is high correlation between peoples attitudes toward business and security concerns and their positions on the national identity issue. The key to understanding Taiwans mainland China policy is thus the distribution of voters on the national identity issue and how it is translated into the political fortunes of various political parties in the electoral game.

How Far Can Taiwan Go

This article explores the possibility of Taiwans moving away from the status quo by either seeking reunification with the mainland or pursuing de jure independence, and particularly focuses on the latter scenario. Clearly, immediate reunification is not a viable option, but a declaration of independence may be. However, given the public attitude on the national identity issue, which underpins Taiwans party structure, it is very difficult for the independence forces to control a majority of seats in the parliament. Thus, as long as the ROC constitutional structure remains essentially parliamentary, the chances that Taiwan will declare independence are not that great. Moreover, Chinas threat to use force against Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence and the tremendous economic interests involved in doing business with China, coupled with the US insistence on peace and stability in the region, all keep Taiwan from taking drastic measures in pursuit of independence.

Electoral politics in new democracies in the Asia‐pacific region

The following article examines the imparts of different electoral systems in four newly emerging democracies in South‐East Asia: Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Continuity and Change in Party Politics in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

The 2012 elections in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea exhibit both long-term trends and short-term variations in each countrys political landscape. All three societies are moving towards two-party competition lately, thanks mostly to the mixed-member majoritarian system adopted for legislative elections, despite the social cleavages that provide, to varying degrees, niches for small parties. The cleavage structure coupled with the electoral system largely explains the changing political landscape in these societies.

Taiwan’s General Elections of 2016

The 2016 general elections were a milestone in Taiwan’s political history. The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) was defeated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which was not only able to win the presidency but also, for the first time in history, an outright majority in the Legislative Yuan (Parliament). Potentially, the 2016 elections might portend a partisan realignment between the two major political parties (or the two major political groupings—the Pan-KMT camp and the Pan-DPP camp) for many years to come. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the events leading to the elections and the factors that may have affected the turnout and voters’ vote choices in these crucial elections in this young democracy.

Change and Continuity in Taiwan’s Public Opinion on the Cross-Strait Economic Interactions

The Sunflower Student Movement was a significant event in Taiwan’s political history. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we argue that the effect of the movement on the attitude of the general public, particularly the young, toward the cross-Strait economic interactions and the perception that Taiwan may be forced to make political concessions resulting from such ties is limited. Based on the Taiwan National Security surveys, we find out that the movement, to a certain extent, reflected public sentiment already existing in the society, and did not push the sentiment further. Compared to the attitude toward national identity, which is more long-lasting, the views on the cross-Strait economic ties may be more volatile, and are thus less predictable.