Philip Paolino

Challenges to the American Two-Party System: Evidence from the 1968, 1980, 1992, and 1996 Presidential Elections

Recent successes by independent presidential candidates raise questions about the stability of the American two-party system. Students of electoral behavior point to party decline, whereas analysts of party organization see growth and transformation. Analyses of the 1968, 1980, 1992, and 1996 National Election Study surveys are used to determine whether support for Wallace, Anderson, and Perot resulted from dissatisfaction with the current two-party system. We find that there has been little erosion of support for the major political parties between 1968 and 1996. Americans with low levels of support for the major political parties were more likely to support Wallace in 1968 and Perot in 1992 and 1996. But to a large extent, support for Wallace, Anderson, and Perot resulted from dissatisfaction with the major-party candidates. Support for the major parties themselves has not eroded enough to provide a systemic opportunity for an independent candidate or for a new political party to end the Republican and Democratic duopoly.

Lifting the Hood on the Straight-talk Express Examining the McCain Phenomenon

As Arizona Senator John McCain emerged to win the New Hampshire and Michigan Republican primaries, much was made of his distinctive campaign tactics. Most notably, the press pointed to his willingness to open himself up to the media and voters. The authors argue that McCains success was less tactical and idiosyncratic than has been suggested. McCains rise was fueled by a confluence of circumstances. First, there was a latent pool of support for an antiestablishment, reformist candidate. Second, several high profile competitors departed right as McCain began his book tour and the New Hampshire primary started receiving attention. Third, for a variety of reasons, McCain was able to use subsequent free media attention to increase his support in New Hampshire and other primary states. Finally, the structure of the initial contests—open primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan—allowed reformist-minded independents to vote alongside registered Republicans.

Voter Behavior in Democratizing Nations: Reconsidering the Two-Step Model

A prominent literature on voting behavior during democratic transition in Mexico focuses upon two considerations: voters’ attitudes toward the dominant party and their uncertainty about the consequences of opposition government. These two considerations are said to form the first step of a “two-step” process that voters use to determine which party to support. In this article, I examine the evidence for this argument, using data from both Mexico and Taiwan and conclude that voters in nations with hegemonic parties give greater weight to the public policies of the dominant party than the two-step model argues. These findings have important implications for the opposition’s behavior in trying to complete a transition from a one-party dominant government to a multi-party democracy.

Surprising Events and Surprising Opinions The Importance of Attitude Strength and Source Credibility

The academic debate concerning public opinion about war focuses upon two explanations: cost/benefits and partisan cues. Both sides of this debate use laboratory experiments to estimate the influence of events and cues, but Gelpi is notable for using a well-designed experiment to compare the theories simultaneously. He argues that his results support the cost/benefits explanation as “surprising events” that counter individuals’ prior attitudes have significantly more effect than “surprising opinions” upon people’s attitudes toward the Iraq War. His analysis, however, considers only the direction, but not the strength, of people’s attitudes toward the war. Additionally, the measure of source credibility for determining the influence of cues is not optimal. When the analysis accounts for attitude strength and uses a better measure of source credibility, the results show little support for the effect of surprising events and markedly greater support for the influence of partisan cues.

¿Eres Amigo o Enemigo? Contextual Determinants of Latinos’ Perceived Competition with African-Americans

Prior research has examined how racial and socioeconomic environments influence the racial attitudes of Whites and Blacks. We extend this line of research to explore how local context influences Latinos’ perceived competition with African-Americans. We use the 2006 Latino National Survey and a newly appended contextual data set. We find that having more Black neighbors heightens Latinos’ perceived competition with Blacks, but only when Latinos are economically vulnerable. The presence of African-Americans within Latinos’ neighborhoods is a necessary but insufficient condition for increasing their perceived competition with Blacks; Latinos’ perceived threat is shaped by the combined effect of the neighborhood racial composition and their group’s economic status.

Democratization, Divided Government and the 2001 Taiwanese Legislative Yuan Elections

The 2001 Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan were the first to be held following the change in control of the presidency that occurred after the 2000 elections. The transition from a one-party dominant system to one where the opposition had control of the government provides a good opportunity to examine the prevalence of democratic attitudes in Taiwan. Democracy can be frustrating when control over public policy is divided between two opposing groups. Under these circumstances, it could be reasonable for voters to desire a return to authoritarianism government. In a survey conducted following the 2001 Legislative Yuan elections, Taiwanese citizens were asked a series of questions about democratic norms. In this article, I analyze these attitudes as a means of exploring how Taiwan’s voters feel about democracy as Taiwan moves away from a one-party dominant system and faces potential difficulties operating within a multi-party semi-presidential system.