John W. Wilson

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Abstract Cucinotta, F. A., Schimmerling, W., Wilson, J. W., Peterson, L. E., Badhwar, G. D., Saganti, P. B. and Dicello, J. F. Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions. Radiat. Res. 156, 682–688 (2001). Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400–600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earths magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or δ-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

Measurement of the energy spectrum of cosmic-ray induced neutrons aboard an ER-2 high-altitude airplane.

Crews working on present-day jet aircraft are a large occupationally exposed group with a relatively high average effective dose from galactic cosmic radiation. Crews of future high-speed commercial aircraft flying at higher altitudes would be even more exposed. To help reduce the significant uncertainties in calculations of such exposures, the atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) project, an international collaboration of 15 laboratories, made simultaneous radiation measurements with 14 instruments on five flights of a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. The primary AIR instrument was a highly sensitive extended-energy multisphere neutron spectrometer with lead and steel shells placed within the moderators of two of its 14 detectors to enhance response at high energies. Detector responses were calculated for neutrons and charged hadrons at energies up to 100 GeV using MCNPX. Neutron spectra were unfolded from the measured count rates using the new MAXED code. We have measured the cosmic-ray neutron spectrum (thermal to >10 GeV), total neutron fluence rate, and neutron effective dose and dose equivalent rates and their dependence on altitude and geomagnetic cutoff. The measured cosmic-ray neutron spectra have almost no thermal neutrons, a large evaporation peak near 1 MeV and a second broad peak near 100 MeV which contributes about 69% of the neutron effective dose. At high altitude, geomagnetic latitude has very little effect on the shape of the spectrum, but it is the dominant variable affecting neutron fluence rate, which was eight times higher at the northernmost measurement location than it was at the southernmost. The shape of the spectrum varied only slightly with altitude from 21 km down to 12 km (56-201 g cm-2 atmospheric depth), but was significantly different on the ground. In all cases, ambient dose equivalent was greater than effective dose for cosmic-ray neutrons.

Shielding from solar particle event exposures in deep space

The physical composition and intensities of solar particle event exposures of sensitive astronaut tissues are examined under conditions approximating an astronaut in deep space. Response functions for conversion of particle fluence into dose and dose equivalent averaged over organ tissues are used to establish significant fluence levels and the expected dose and dose rates of the most important events from past observations. The BRYNTRN transport code is used to evaluate the local environment experienced by sensitive tissues and used to evaluate bioresponse models developed for use in tactical nuclear warfare. The present results will help to clarify the biophysical aspects of such exposure in the assessment of RBE and dose rate effects and their impact on design of protection systems for the astronauts. The use of polymers as shielding material in place of an equal mass of aluminum would provide a large safety factor without increasing the vehicle mass. This safety factor is sufficient to provide adequate protection if a factor of two larger event than has ever been observed in fact occurs during the mission.

Issues in Space Radiation Protection: Galactic Cosmic Rays

When shielding from cosmic heavy ions, one is faced with limited knowledge about the physical properties and biological responses of these radiations. Herein, the current status of space shielding technology and its impact on radiation health is discussed in terms of conventional protection practice and a test biological response model. The impact of biological response on optimum materials selection for cosmic ray shielding is presented in terms of the transmission characteristics of the shield material. Although liquid hydrogen is an optimum shield material, evaluation of the effectiveness of polymeric structural materials must await improvement in our knowledge of both the biological response and the nuclear processes.

NUCFRG2: a semiempirical nuclear fragmentation model

The semiempirical abrasion/ablation model has been successful in generating a large nuclear data base for use in the study of high charge and energy (HZE) ion beams, radiation physics and galactic cosmic ray shielding. The cross sections generated agree with the measured HZE fragmentation data to the degree that different experimental groups agree among themselves. Several improvements in the model have been made including a Coulomb trajectory correction, an improved treatment of nuclear attenuation factors, an improved second order correction to the spectator fragment excitation spectrum, a pre-equilibrium emission process, and competitive equilibrium emission of additional hydrogen and helium isotope fragments.

A semiempirical nuclear fragmentation model

An abrasion/ablation model of heavy ion fragmentation is derived which includes a second order correction for the surface energy term and provides a reasonable representation of the present elemental fragmentation cross sections. The full development of the model must await the resolution of disagreement among different experiments and an expansion of the experimental data base to a broader set of projectile-target combinations.

Overview of radiation environments and human exposures

Human exposures to ionizing radiation have been vastly altered by developing technology in the last century. This has been most obvious in the development of radiation generating devices and the utilization of nuclear energy. But even air travel has had its impact on human exposure. Human exposure increases with advancing aircraft technology as a result of the higher operating altitudes reducing the protective cover provided by Earths atmosphere from extraterrestrial radiations. This increase in operating altitudes is taken to a limit by human operations in space. Less obvious is the changing character of the radiations at higher altitudes. The associated health risks are less understood with increasing altitude due to the increasing complexity and new field components found in high-altitude and space operations.

Issues in deep space radiation protection

The exposures in deep space are largely from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) for which there is as yet little biological experience. Mounting evidence indicates that conventional linear energy transfer (LET) defined protection quantities (quality factors) may not be appropriate for GCR ions. The available biological data indicates that aluminum alloy structures may generate inherently unhealthy internal spacecraft environments in the thickness range for space applications. Methods for optimization of spacecraft shielding and the associated role of materials selection are discussed. One material which may prove to be an important radiation protection material is hydrogenated carbon nanofibers.

Galactic HZE propagation through the Earth's atmosphere

A comprehensive physical model for galactic heavy ion propagation is presented. The nuclear fragmentation model is a simplified physical model but contains the major processes of importance to galactic ions. Comparison is made to measurements of atmospheric ion fluence and the limitations of these comparisons are discussed.

Methods of galactic heavy ion transport.

Two methods of calculating the transition of galactic heavy ions in the Earths atmosphere are compared with respect to accuracy, generality, and computer efficiency. The most general method is shown to have the highest accuracy and is a simple numerical procedure.