John E. Nealy

Ozone and temperature trends associated with the 11-year solar cycle.

Evidence is presented which suggests that trends in the ozone concentration and stratospheric temperature, reported between the early 1960s and 1976, are to a large extent due to solar ultraviolet flux variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle. Radiative-convective-photochemical simulations of ozone and temperature variations have been made with a solar ultraviolet flux variability model. Results for temperatures and ozone concentrations, when compared with published data, show good agreement.

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50% less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earths magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

Solar UV variability: Effects on stratospheric ozone, trace constituents and thermal structure

The effect of long-term (11-year solar cycle) solar UV variability on stratospheric chemical and thermal structure has been studied using a time-dependent one-dimensional model. Previous studies have suggested substantial variations in local and total ozone, and in stratospheric thermal structure from solar minimum to solar maximum. It is shown here that significant variations also occur in some of the trace constituents. Members of the HOx family and N2O exhibit the largest variations, and these changes, if detected, may provide additional means of verifying the presence of solar UV variability and its effects. Some of the species show large phase differences with the assumed solar flux variation. The role of chemical and transport time constants on the time variations of the trace species is examined. Comparisons with reported ozone and temperature data show reasonable agreement for the period 1960 to 1972.

Large solar flare radiation shielding requirements for manned interplanetary missions.

As the 21st century approaches, there is an ever-increasing interest in launching manned missions to Mars. A major concern to mission planners is exposure of the flight crews to highly penetrating and damaging space radiations. Beyond the protective covering of the Earths magnetosphere, the two main sources of these radiations are galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events. Preliminary analyses of potential exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) were presented elsewhere. In this Note, estimates of shielding thicknesses required to protect astronauts on interplanetary missions from the effects of large solar flare events are presented. The calculations use integral proton fluences for the February 1956, November 1960, and August 1972 solar particle events as inputs into the NASA Langley Research Center nucleon transport code BRYNTRN. This deterministic computer code transports primary protons and secondary protons and neutrons through any number of layers of target material of arbitrary thickness and composition. Contributions from target nucleus breakup (fragmentation) and recoil are also included. The results for each flare are presented as estimates of dose equivalent [in units of roentgen equivalent man (rem)] to the skin, eye, and bloodforming organs (BFO) behind various thicknesses of aluminum shielding. These results indicate that the February 1956 event was the most penetrating; however, the August 1972 event, the largest ever recorded, could have been mission- or life-threatening for thinly shielded (< or = 5 g/cm2) spacecraft. Also presented are estimates of the thicknesses of water shielding required to reduce the BFO dose equivalent to currently recommended astronaut exposure limits. These latter results suggest that organic polymers, similar to water, appear to be a much more desirable shielding material than aluminum.

Space radiation dose estimates on the surface of Mars

A future goal of the U.S. space program is a commitment to the manned exploration and habitation of Mars. An important consideration of such missions is the exposure of crew members to the damaging effects of ionizing radiation from high-energy galactic cosmic ray fluxes and solar proton flares. The crew will encounter the most harmful radiation environment in transit to Mars from which they must be adequately protected. However, once on the planets surface, the Martian environment should provide a significant amount of protection from free-space radiative fluxes. In current Mars scenario descriptions, the crew flight time to Mars is estimated to be anywhere from 7 months to over a year each way, with stay times on the surface ranging from 20 days to 2 years. To maintain dose levels below established astronaut limits, dose estimates need to be determined for the entire mission length. With extended crew durations on the surface anticipated, the characterization of the Mars radiation environment is important in assessing all radiation protection requirements. This synopsis focuses on the probable doses incurred by surface inhabitants from the transport of galactic cosmic rays and solar protons through the Mars atmosphere.

Shielding against galactic cosmic rays

Ions of galactic origin are modified but not attenuated by the presence of shielding materials. Indeed, the number of particles and the absorbed energy behind most shield materials increases as a function of shield thickness. The modification of the galactic cosmic ray composition upon interaction with shielding is the only effective means of providing astronaut protection. This modification is intimately connected with the shield transport properties and is a strong function of shield composition. The systematic behavior of the shield properties in terms of microscopic energy absorption events will be discussed. The shield effectiveness is examined with respect to conventional protection practice and in terms of a biological endpoint: the efficiency for reduction of the probability of transformation of shielded C3H10T1/2 mouse cells. The relative advantage of developing new shielding technologies is discussed in terms of a shield performance as related to biological effect and the resulting uncertainty in estimating astronaut risk.

Variations in astronaut radiation exposure due to anisotropic shield distribution

The dose incurred in an environment generated by extraterrestrial space radiations within an anisotropic shield distribution depends on the orientation of the astronauts body relative to the shield geometry. The fluctuations in exposure of specific organ sites due to astronaut re-orientation are found to be a factor of 2 or more in a typical space habitation module and typical space radiations. An approximation function is found that overestimates astronaut exposure in most cases studied and is recommended as a shield design guide for future deep space missions.

Space radiation shielding for a martian habitat

Radiation shielding analyses are performed for a candidate Mars base habitat. The Langley cosmic ray transport code and the Langley nucleon transport code are used to quantify the transport and attenuation of galactic cosmic rays and solar flare protons through both the Martian atmosphere and regolith shielding. Doses at the surface and at various altitudes were calculated in a previous study using both a high-density and a low-density Mars atmosphere model. This study extends the previous low-density results to include the further transport of the ionizing radiation that reaches the surface through additional shielding provided by Martian regolith. A four-compound regolith model, which includes SiO2, Fe2O3, MgO, and CaO, was selected based on the chemistry of the Viking 1 Lander site. The spectral fluxes of heavy charged particles and the corresponding dosimetric quantities are computed for a series of thicknesses in the shield media after traversing the atmosphere. These data are then used as input to algorithms for a specific shield geometry. The results are presented as the maximum dose received in the center of the habitat versus various shield thicknesses for a base at an altitude of 0 km and 8 km.

Preliminary Analyses of Space Radiation Protection for Luner Base Surface Systems

Radiation shielding analyses are performed for candidate lunar base habitation modules. The study primarily addresses potential hazards due to contributions from the galactic cosmic rays. The NASA Langley Research Centers high energy nucleon and heavy ion transport codes are used to compute propagation of radiation through conventional and regolith shield materials. Computed values of linear energy transfer are converted to biological dose-equivalent using quality factors established by the International Commision of Radiological Protection. Special fluxes of heavy charged particles and corresponding dosimetric quantities are computed for a series of thicknesses in various shield media and are used as an input data base for algorithms pertaining to specific shielded geometries. Dosimetric results are presented as isodose contour maps of shielded configuration interiors. The dose predictions indicate that shielding requirements are substantial, and an abbreviated uncertainty analysis shows that better definition of the space radiation environment as well as improvement in nuclear interaction cross-section data can greatly increase the accuracy of shield requirement predictions.