John Weirstrasd Muteba Mwamba

Do Basel III Higher Common Equity Capital Requirements Matter for Bank Risk-taking Behaviour? Lessons from South Africa

This paper examines the role of common equity capital in determining the risk-taking behaviour of banks in South Africa. Using system GMM, the results show that higher common equity capital is associated with lower bank risk. Additionally, the results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between business cycles and bank risk, while the relationship between bank market power and risk is positive and significant. The findings remain robust after using alternative measures of bank risk. On the whole, this study recommends that an increase in common equity capital should be coupled with control of bank market power to achieve the goal of curtailing excessive risk appetite of banks.

Financial behavior, confidence, risk preferences and financial literacy of university students

Abstract This study investigates determinants of financial behavior (FB) of university students at a university in South Africa. It examines whether financial behavior, confidence, time preferences, risk preferences and financial literacy perceptions of university students differ by financial literacy level. Data were gathered via a questionnaire that included personal information, FB, financial perceptions and financial knowledge responses as well as a multiple price list (MPL) risk preferences and time preferences experiment tasks. A convenient total sample of 191 students (females = 53%) participated in the study. A t-test analysis showed that FB, risk preferences, confidence levels, time preferences and financial literacy perceptions of university students significantly differed by financial literacy level. Our results show that university students with low financial literacy levels are more overconfident, risk loving and impatient; such FB is synonymous with major causes of financial crises across the world. An OLS regression model analysis showed that the risk preferences index, financial literacy perception index and confidence significantly influenced the FB of categorized university students. The risk preference index significantly influenced debt FB of categorized university students. In order to understand the FB of university students, one should take cognizance of their preferences, financial knowledge, confidence and personal characteristics.

Performance evaluation of equity unit trusts in South Africa

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of 191 equity unit trusts in an emerging market, South Africa over the period from February 2006 to January 2016, which captures different market conditions (pre-global financial crisis, crisis and recovery periods). Besides testing for managerial ability, both cross-sectional regression and the non-parametric rank correlation test are used to test whether the performance generated by unit trusts does persist. Design/methodology/approach - To evaluate the managerial ability of portfolio managers, two widely used methods, the Treynor-Mazuy (1966) model and Henriksson-Merton (1981) model, are employed. Both models test whether portfolio managers have stock selection and market timing ability. The cross-sectional regression and the rank correlation test are implemented which account for both parametric and non-parametric approaches of persistence testing, respectively. Findings - Weak evidence of stock selection as well as market timing ability was found. Moreover, most of the unit trusts are reported to have insignificant coefficients. When testing for performance persistence using returns, the Sharpe ratio and the Sortino ratio as performance metrics, the overall results also revealed weak evidence of persistence that is equally spread across winning and losing funds. Originality/value - While research on unit trusts’ performance has been conducted in emerging economies, little has been done in testing for managerial ability in general and in South Africa in particular. Moreover, the research tends to focus more on one class – Equity General. This paper extends the performance literature by testing whether portfolio managers in the South African equity unit trusts industry have stock selection and market timing ability.

On the optimality of hedge fund investment strategies: a Bayesian skew t distribution model

This paper presents a forward looking model for selection of hedge fund investment strategies. Given excess skewness observed in hedge funds’ return distributions, we assume that the historical return distribution is a skewed student t distribution. We implement a Bayesian framework to derive the parameters of the posterior return distribution. The predictive return distribution is easily obtained once the posterior parameters are known by assuming that the unknown future expected returns are equal to the posterior distribution multiplied by the likelihood of unknown future expected returns conditional on available posterior parameters. We derive the predictive mean, predictive variance and predictive skewness from the predictive distribution after twenty-one thousand simulations using GIBS sampler, and solve a multi-objective problem using a data set of monthly returns of investment strategy indices published by the Hedge Fund Research group. Our results show that the methodology presented in this paper provides the highest rate of return (16.79%) with a risk of 2.62% compared to the mean variance, which provides 0.8% rate of return with 1.41% risk respectively.