Jonathan Mellon

Internet Search Data and Issue Salience: The Properties of Google Trends as a Measure of Issue Salience

Abstract This article examines the conditions required for using Internet search data as measures of aggregate issue salience. Internet data have clear advantages over survey data in terms of cost, availability and frequency. These advantages have led the media and some researchers to use Internet search data as proxies for public opinion. However, these analyses do not present systematic evidence that search data tell us about the general publics views rather than those of an unrepresentative subset. This article outlines a general method for assessing the validity of search data against existing measures, including content validity and criterion validity. To this end, weekly Google search data are tested against Gallups “most important problem” question. The article finds the salience of four issues, fuel prices, the economy, immigration and terrorism, can be measured in the United States using search data. Weekly measures of issue salience are generated for these issues, from 2004 to 2010, for empirical analysis. The search indices performed less well outside of these domains.

Where and When Can We Use Google Trends to Measure Issue Salience

Google search data have several major advantages over traditional survey data. First, the high costs of running frequent surveys mean that most survey questions are only asked occasionally making comparisons over time difficult. By contrast, Google Trends provides information on search trends measured weekly. Second, there are many countries where surveys are only conducted sporadically, whereas Google search data are available anywhere in the world where sufficient numbers of people use its search engine. The Google Trends website allows researchers to download data for almost all countries at no cost and to download time series of any search terms popularity over time (provided enough people have searched for it). For these reasons, Google Trends is an attractive data source for social scientists.

Effects of the internet on participation: Study of a public policy referendum in Brazil

ABSTRACT Does online voting mobilize citizens who otherwise would not participate? During the annual participatory budgeting vote in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil—the worlds largest—Internet voters were asked whether they would have participated had there not been an online voting option (i-voting). The study documents an 8.2 percent increase in total turnout with the introduction of i-voting. In support of the mobilization hypothesis, unique survey data show that i-voting is mainly used by new participants rather than just for convenience by those who were already mobilized. The study also finds that age, gender, income, education, and social media usage are significant predictors of being online-only voters. However, technology appears more likely to engage people who are younger, male, of higher income and educational attainment, and more frequent social media users.

Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss

The pre-election polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. We analyse evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study data. We find limited evidence for systematic vote intention misreporting, late swing, systematically different preferences among “don’t knows�? or differential turnout of parties’ supporters. By comparing the BES face-to-face probability sample and online panel, we show that the online survey’s polling error is primarily caused by under-sampling non-voters, then weighting respondents to represent the general population. Consequently, demographic groups with a low probability of voting are over-weighted within the voter subsample. Finally, we show that this mechanism is likely partially responsible for the over-estimate of the Liberal Democrats in 2010, showing that this is a longstanding problem with British polls.

Twitter and Facebook are not representative of the general population: Political attitudes and demographics of British social media users

A growing social science literature has used Twitter and Facebook to study political and social phenomena including for election forecasting and tracking political conversations. This research note uses a nationally representative probability sample of the British population to examine how Twitter and Facebook users differ from the general population in terms of demographics, political attitudes and political behaviour. We find that Twitter and Facebook users differ substantially from the general population on many politically relevant dimensions including vote choice, turnout, age, gender, and education. On average social media users are younger and better educated than non-users, and they are more liberal and pay more attention to politics. Despite paying more attention to politics, social media users are less likely to vote than non-users, but they are more likely to support the left leaning Labour Party when they do vote. However, we show that these apparent differences mostly arise due to the demographic composition of social media users. After controlling for age, gender, and education, no statistically significant differences arise between social media users and non-users on political attention, values or political behaviour.

Know your friends

The findings of Fowler and Christakis, that happiness seems to spread through social networks, arise from an innovative use of the data of the Framingham Heart Study.1 However, the question still remains to what extent apparent contagion of happiness to second degrees of separation could in fact …

Authoritarianism, Social Structure and Economic Policy Preferences

While elite level and political party ideological positions broadly reflect a one dimensional structure, at the mass level ideological positions appear to be unstructured or multidimensional. In this paper we reconcile this apparent disconnect and argue that economic policy preferences among the general public arise from an interaction between universalistic (socially liberal) and particularistic (authoritarian) dispositions, and social position. The economic preferences of universalistic liberals tend to economic left-leaning regardless of social position, whereas the preferences of particularistic authoritarians reflect their standing in the social order. For example, poor authoritarians tend to favour redistribution while better off authoritarians tend to be economic right-leaning. Using British Election Study, American National Election Study and European Election Study data we demonstrate this pattern across a range of policy areas and social groups. We find a consistent pattern whereby liberals support policies that promote fairness and equality, and authoritarians support policies that benefit their own social group.

Volatile Elite Networks and the Race for the Zimbabwean Succession

This paper is a work in progress analysis of the power structures within elite Zimbabwean politics. This project is in support of ongoing research at the Network Science Center at West Point and the original intent of this study was to compile a historical dataset of an influence network over time and to model how the network reacts to both external and internal disruptions. The conclusions and analysis will change as new data is collected and analyses are available. This analysis was conducted several months before the apparent coup in response to Emmerson Mnangagwas removal as vice-president.

A Get-Out-the-Vote Experiment on the World’s Largest Participatory Budgeting Vote in Brazil

Does non-partisan voter mobilization affect the popular vote? We use vote records from a state-level participatory budgeting vote in Brazil– the world’s largest –to assess the impact of voter mobilization messaging on turnout and support for public investments. The government provided records as to how each ballot was cast and designed the tabulation process so that votes could be matched to treatment assignment without compromising the secrecy of the ballot. Citizens (n=43,384) were randomly assigned to receive non-partisan email and text messages designed to encourage voting. We document an impressive 4.7 percentage point increase in online voting in our treatment group. However, we found no effect of messaging on vote choice; voters in the treatment and control groups shared the same sectoral preferences and showed no difference in the average cost of public investment projects they supported. These results suggest non-partisan Get Out the Vote campaigns can increase citizen participation without skewing the outcome.