Jorge A. Ramirez

Methane Dynamics in Peat: Importance of Shallow Peats and a Novel Reduced‐Complexity Approach for Modeling Ebullition

Northern peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), and it is important to understand the mechanisms of CH 4 loss from these peatlands so that future rates of CH 4 emission can be predicted. CH 4 is lost to the atmosphere from peatlands by diffusion, by plant transport, and as bubbles (ebullition). We argue that ebullition has not been accounted for properly in many previous studies, both in terms of measurement and the conceptualization of the mechanisms involved. We present a new conceptual model of bubble buildup and release that emphasizes the importance of near-surface peat as a source of atmospheric CH 4 . We review two possible approaches to modeling bubble buildup and loss within peat soils: the recently proposed bubble threshold approach and a fully computational-fluid-dynamics approach. We suggest that neither satisfies the needs of peatland CH 4 models, and we propose a new reduced-complexity approach that conceptualizes bubble buildup and release as broadly similar to an upside down sandpile. Unlike the threshold approach, our model allows bubbles to accumulate at different depths within the peat profile according to peat structure, yet it retains the simplicity of many cellular (including cellular automata) models. Comparison of the results from one prototype of our model with data from a laboratory experiment suggests that the model captures some of the key dynamics of ebullition in that it reproduces well observed frequency-magnitude relationships. We outline ways in which the model may be further developed to improve its predictive capabilities.

Were Rivers Flowing across the Sahara During the Last Interglacial? Implications for Human Migration through Africa

Human migration north through Africa is contentious. This paper uses a novel palaeohydrological and hydraulic modelling approach to test the hypothesis that under wetter climates c.100,000 years ago major river systems ran north across the Sahara to the Mediterranean, creating viable migration routes. We confirm that three of these now buried palaeo river systems could have been active at the key time of human migration across the Sahara. Unexpectedly, it is the most western of these three rivers, the Irharhar river, that represents the most likely route for human migration. The Irharhar river flows directly south to north, uniquely linking the mountain areas experiencing monsoon climates at these times to temperate Mediterranean environments where food and resources would have been abundant. The findings have major implications for our understanding of how humans migrated north through Africa, for the first time providing a quantitative perspective on the probabilities that these routes were viable for human habitation at these times.

Species Distribution Models for Crop Pollination: A Modelling Framework Applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the worlds major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

Ebullition of methane from peatlands: Does peat act as a signal shredder?

Bubbling (ebullition) of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, from peatlands has been attributed to environmental forcings, such as changes in atmospheric pressure. However, observations from peat soils suggest that ebullition and environmental forcing may not always be correlated and that interactions between bubbles and the peat structure may be the cause of such decoupling. To investigate this possibility, we used a simple computer model (Model of Ebullition and Gas storAge) to simulate methane ebullition from a model peat. We found that lower porosity peat can store methane bubbles for lengthy periods of time, effectively buffering or moderating ebullition so that it no longer reflects bubble production signals. Our results suggest that peat structure may act as a “signal shredder” and needs to be taken into account when measuring and modeling ebullition.

The effect of pore structure on ebullition from peat

The controls on methane (CH4) bubbling (ebullition) from peatlands are uncertain, but evidence suggests that physical factors related to gas transport and storage within the peat matrix are important. Variability in peat pore size and the permeability of layers within peat can produce ebullition that ranges from steady to erratic in time, and can affect the degree to which CH4 bubbles bypass consumption by methanotrophic bacteria and enter the atmosphere. Here we investigate the role of peat structure on ebullition in structurally different peats using a physical model that replicates bubble production using air injection into peat. We find that the frequency distributions of number of ebullition events per time and the magnitude of bubble loss from the physical model were similar in shape to ebullition from peatlands and incubated peats. This indicates that the physical model could be a valid proxy for naturally occurring ebullition from peat. For the first time, data on bubble sizes from peat were collected to conceptualize ebullition, and we find that peat structure affects bubble sizes. Using a new method to measure peat macro structure, we collected evidence that supports the hypothesis that structural differences in peat determine if bubble release is steady or erratic and extreme. Collected pore size data suggests that erratic ebullition occurs when large amounts of gas stored at depth easily move through shallower layers of open peat. In contrast, steady ebullition occurs when dense shallower layers of peat regulate the flow of gas emitted from peat.

Testing a simple model of gas bubble dynamics in porous media

Bubble dynamics in porous media are of great importance in industrial and natural systems. Of particular significance is the impact that bubble-related emissions (ebullition) of greenhouse gases from porous media could have on global climate (e.g., wetland methane emissions). Thus, predictions of future changes in bubble storage, movement, and ebullition from porous media are needed. Methods exist to predict ebullition using numerical models, but all existing models are limited in scale (spatial and temporal) by high computational demands or represent porous media simplistically. A suitable model is needed to simulate ebullition at scales beyond individual pores or relatively small collections (<10−4 m3) of connected pores. Here we present a cellular automaton model of bubbles in porous media that addresses this need. The model is computationally efficient, and could be applied over large spatial and temporal extent without sacrificing fine-scale detail. We test this cellular automaton model against a physical model and find a good correspondence in bubble storage, bubble size, and ebullition between both models. It was found that porous media heterogeneity alone can have a strong effect on ebullition. Furthermore, results from both models suggest that the frequency distributions of number of ebullition events per time and the magnitude of bubble loss are strongly right skewed, which partly explains the difficulty in interpreting ebullition events from natural systems.

Flood risk (d)evolution: Disentangling key drivers of flood risk change with a retro-model experiment

Flood risks are dynamically changing over time. Over decades and centuries, the main drivers for flood risk change are influenced either by perturbations or slow alterations in the natural environment or, more importantly, by socio-economic development and human interventions. However, changes in the natural and human environment are intertwined. Thus, the analysis of the main drivers for flood risk changes requires a disentangling of the individual risk components. Here, we present a method for isolating the individual effects of selected drivers of change and selected flood risk management options based on a model experiment. In contrast to purely synthetic model experiments, we built our analyses upon a retro-model consisting of several spatio-temporal stages of river morphology and settlement structure. The main advantage of this approach is that the overall long-term dynamics are known and do not have to be assumed. We used this model setup to analyse the temporal evolution of the flood risk, for an ex-post evaluation of the key drivers of change, and for analysing possible alternative pathways for flood risk evolution under different governance settings. We showed that in the study region the construction of lateral levees and the consecutive river incision are the main drivers for decreasing flood risks over the last century. A rebound effect in flood risk can be observed following an increase in settlements since the 1960s. This effect is not as relevant as the river engineering measures, but it will become increasingly relevant in the future with continued socio-economic growth. The presented approach could provide a methodological framework for studying pathways for future flood risk evolvement and for the formulation of narratives for adapting governmental flood risk strategies to the spatio-temporal dynamics in the built environment.

The effect of sampling effort on estimates of methane ebullition from peat

We investigated the effect of sample size and sampling duration on methane bubble flux (ebullition) estimates from peat using a computer model. A field scale (10 m), seasonal (> 100 days) simulation of ebullition from a two-dimensional structurally-varying peat profile was modelled at fine spatial resolution (1 mm × 1 mm). The spatial and temporal scale of this simulation was possible because of the computational efficiency of the reduced complexity approach that was implemented, and patterns of simulated ebullition were consistent with those found in the field and laboratory. The simulated ebullition from the peat profile suggested that decreases in peat porosity – which cause increases in gas storage – produce ebullition that becomes increasingly patchy in space and erratic in time. By applying different amounts of spatial and temporal sampling effort it was possible to determine the uncertainty in ebullition estimates from the peatland. The results suggest that traditional methods to measure ebullition can equally overestimate and underestimate flux by 20% and large ebullition events can lead to large overestimations of flux when sampling effort is low. Our findings support those of field studies, and we recommend that ebullition should be measured frequently (hourly to daily) and at many locations (n > 14).

Correction to “Paleoceanography of the Atlantic‐Mediterranean Exchange: Overview and first quantitative assessment of climatic forcing”

[1] The Mediterranean Sea provides a major route for heat and freshwater loss from the North Atlantic and thus is an important cause of the high density of Atlantic waters. In addition to the traditional view that loss of fresh water via the Mediterranean enhances the general salinity of the North Atlantic, and the interior of the eastern North Atlantic in particular, it should be noted that Mediterranean water outflowing at Gibraltar is in fact cooler than compensating inflowing water. The consequence is that the Mediterranean is also a region of heat loss from the Atlantic and contributes to its large-scale cooling. Uniquely, this system can be understood physically via the constraints placed on it by a single hydraulic structure: the Gibraltar exchange. Here we review the existing knowledge about the physical structure of the Gibraltar exchange today and the evidential basis for arguments that it has been different in the past. Using a series of quantitative experiments, we then test prevailing concepts regarding the potential causes of these past changes. We find that (1) changes in the vertical position of the plume of Mediterranean water in the Atlantic are controlled by the vertical density structure of the Atlantic; (2) a prominent Early Holocene “contourite gap” within the Gulf of Cadiz is a response to reduced buoyancy loss in the eastern Mediterranean during the time of “sapropel 1” deposition; (3) changes in buoyancy loss from the Mediterranean during MIS3 caused changes in the bottom velocity field in the Gulf of Cadiz, but we note that the likely cause is reduced freshwater loss and not enhanced heat loss; and (4) strong exchange at Gibraltar during Atlantic freshening phases implies that the Gibraltar exchange provides a strong negative feedback to reduced Atlantic meridional overturning. Given the very counterintuitive way in which the Strait of Gibraltar system behaves, we recommend that without quantitative supporting work, qualitative interpretations of how the system has responded to past external forcing are unlikely to be robust.