Joseph Maina

Linking Social and Ecological Systems to Sustain Coral Reef Fisheries

The ecosystem goods and services provided by coral reefs are critical to the social and economic welfare of hundreds of millions of people, overwhelmingly in developing countries [1]. Widespread reef degradation is severely eroding these goods and services, but the socioeconomic factors shaping the ways that societies use coral reefs are poorly understood [2]. We examine relationships between human population density, a multidimensional index of socioeconomic development, reef complexity, and the condition of coral reef fish populations in five countries across the Indian Ocean. In fished sites, fish biomass was negatively related to human population density, but it was best explained by reef complexity and a U-shaped relationship with socioeconomic development. The biomass of reef fishes was four times lower at locations with intermediate levels of economic development than at locations with both low and high development. In contrast, average biomass inside fishery closures was three times higher than in fished sites and was not associated with socioeconomic development. Sustaining coral reef fisheries requires an integrated approach that uses tools such as protected areas to quickly build reef resources while also building capacities and capital in societies over longer time frames to address the complex underlying causes of reef degradation.

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE AND SEAWATER TEMPERATURE VARIATION ON CORAL BLEACHING AND MORTALITY

Coral bleaching due to thermal and environmental stress threatens coral reefs and possibly people who rely on their resources. Here we explore patterns of coral bleaching and mortality in East Africa in 1998 and 2005 in a region where the equatorial current and the island effect of Madagascar interact to create different thermal and physicochemical environments. A variety of temperature statistics were calculated, and their relationships with the degree-heating months (DHM), a good predictor of coral bleaching, determined. Changes in coral cover were analyzed from 29 sites that span >1000 km of coastline from Kenya to the Comoros Islands. Temperature patterns are influenced by the island effect, and there are three main temperature environments based on the rise in temperature over 52 years, measures of temperature variation, and DHM. Offshore sites north of Madagascar that included the Comoros had low temperature rises, low DHM, high standard deviations (SD), and the lowest relative coral mortality. Coastal sites in Kenya had moderate temperature rises, the lowest temperature SD, high DHM, and the highest relative coral mortality. Coastal sites in the south had the highest temperature rises, moderate SD and DHM, and low relative coral mortality. Consequently, the rate of temperature rise was less important than background variation, as reflected by SD and kurtosis measures of sea surface water temperature (SST), in predicting coral survival across 1998. Coral bleaching responses to a warm-water anomaly in 2005 were also negatively related to temperature variation, but positively correlated with the speed of water flow. Separating these effects is difficult; however, both factors will be associated with current environments on the opposite sides of reefs and islands. Reefs in current shadows may represent refugia where corals acclimate and adapt to environmental variation, which better prepares them for rising temperature and anomalies, even though these sites are likely to experience the fastest rates of temperature rise. We suggest that these sites are a conservation priority and should be targeted for management and further ecological research in order to understand acclimation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change.

Global Gradients of Coral Exposure to Environmental Stresses and Implications for Local Management

Background The decline of coral reefs globally underscores the need for a spatial assessment of their exposure to multiple environmental stressors to estimate vulnerability and evaluate potential counter-measures. Methodology/Principal Findings This study combined global spatial gradients of coral exposure to radiation stress factors (temperature, UV light and doldrums), stress-reinforcing factors (sedimentation and eutrophication), and stress-reducing factors (temperature variability and tidal amplitude) to produce a global map of coral exposure and identify areas where exposure depends on factors that can be locally managed. A systems analytical approach was used to define interactions between radiation stress variables, stress reinforcing variables and stress reducing variables. Fuzzy logic and spatial ordinations were employed to quantify coral exposure to these stressors. Globally, corals are exposed to radiation and reinforcing stress, albeit with high spatial variability within regions. Based on ordination of exposure grades, regions group into two clusters. The first cluster was composed of severely exposed regions with high radiation and low reducing stress scores (South East Asia, Micronesia, Eastern Pacific and the central Indian Ocean) or alternatively high reinforcing stress scores (the Middle East and the Western Australia). The second cluster was composed of moderately to highly exposed regions with moderate to high scores in both radiation and reducing factors (Caribbean, Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Central Pacific, Polynesia and the western Indian Ocean) where the GBR was strongly associated with reinforcing stress. Conclusions/Significance Despite radiation stress being the most dominant stressor, the exposure of coral reefs could be reduced by locally managing chronic human impacts that act to reinforce radiation stress. Future research and management efforts should focus on incorporating the factors that mitigate the effect of coral stressors until long-term carbon reductions are achieved through global negotiations.

Bright spots among the world’s coral reefs

Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world’s coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the ‘outliers’—places where ecosystems are substantially better (‘bright spots’) or worse (‘dark spots’) than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation.

Response of Coral Assemblages to the Interaction between Natural Temperature Variation and Rare Warm-Water Events

We examined changes in coral assemblages in four back-reef locations across the warm 1998 E1 Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event based on annually collected line-transect data from 3 years before and after this event. The physical locations of the reefs differed such that there was a 120%–275% warm-season range in the SDs of seawater temperatures but only minor differences in mean temperatures, based on 2 non-ENSO years. We tested the predictions that (a) rare warm-water events would produce fewer changes in eurythermal than stenothermal coral assemblages; and (b) after the disturbance, the stenothermal assemblages would more closely resemble the eurythermal ones. The 1998 event produced fewer changes in coral cover and community similarity among the assemblages in the reefs with high variation in temperature than in those with low variation in temperature. Despite the initially lower taxonomic richness in the eurythermal assemblage, there was an additional loss of taxonomic richness in the high and none in the stenothermal reefs. There was some evidence for taxonomic convergence, of the stenothermal towards the eurythermal reefs and a general loss of some of the branching taxa, such as branching Porites, Pavona, and Stylophora, and a relative increase in massive Porites and Favia. There was, however, moderate site specificity that did not produce true convergence. The eurythermal assemblages maintained the basic community structure but lost taxonomic richness, whereas the opposite was true for the stenothermal assemblages.

Effects of the 1998 coral morality event on Kenyan coral reefs and fisheries.

Abstract Data were collected in southern Kenya on coral reef ecosystems and fisheries to assess the influence of the 1998 coral bleaching and mortality event. We compared benthic cover, sea urchin and fish abundance in unfished marine parks and fished reefs and the reef-associated fisheries 3 years before and after 1998. Hard and soft coral decreased while coralline algae increased in both management areas. Turf increased in marine parks and sponge and fleshy algae increased in the fished reefs. Sea urchin grazer biomass was unchanged over this period and the fish community changed less than benthic cover. In general, butterflyfish, damselfish and wrasses were negatively influenced while surgeonfish and a few uncommon families were positively influenced by the substratum change. There was a 17% increase in fishing effort as measured by fishermen per day at each landing site and the total demersal catch declined by 8% and the catch per man declined by 21% after 1998. The decline in the total catch and CPUE combined with the increase in effort suggest an overexploited fishery and this makes it difficult to distinguish changes caused by coral mortality or fishing effort. The price of fish increased over this period and this caused an 18% increase in the total value of the fishery but no difference in the net income of individual fishermen.

Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental, Ecological, and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change

Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each sites ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenyas marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.

Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar’s major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

Observations of a new source of coral mortality along the Kenyan coast

In early 2002 coral mortality occurred along 600 km of coastline from Tanzania to Kenya. Astreopora, Echinopora , and Montipora species were severely affected, with Montipora being nearly eliminated from Kenyan reefs. Acropora , Platygyra , Goniopora , and massive Porites were also affected; however, Porites and Goniopora rarely died and often recovered, whereas death for most other species occurred within 2 weeks. In Echinopora and Montipora , a dull ashy tissue color and brittle skeletons characterized the early stages of this event with a mucus layer on the tissue surface in intermediate stages. Mucus and embedded debris then disappeared and surfaces were left covered in a white calcareous dust that sometimes capped a black layer. Astreopora tissues became dull and pale, and seldom produced mucus; eventually the skeleton became bare and white. Either a colorless translucent or brownish thin margin of tissue was visible between living tissue and bare skeleton, depending on species. Scanning electron micrographs of affected corals revealed the presence of fungi. Histology and staining showed that the fungi were mostly in the three genera that died from the syndrome and it may be that fungi invaded and killed corals weakened by another unidentified pathogen.

Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments

Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region.