Juliana Mendes de Oliveira

Relationship risk-return of native species sawn wood in the state of Pará, Brazil 2003-2007

ABSTRACT: This study characterized the risk-return relationship of sawn wood of different native forest species of the Amazonianarea. Specifically, it was determined the risk-return relationship of Ipe, Jatoba, Macaranduba, Angelim Pedra, Angelim Vermelho andCumaru boards, in 2003-2007 period. The Geometric Growth Rate of prices of the m 3 of boards of each species was admitted asreturn estimative and the variation coefficient as indicative of risk; the estimated values were plotted in dispersion graphics allowinggraphic analysis. It was noticed that their prices float, relatively, in the same way and that Jatoba stands out in attractiveness terms,considering the whole period while the other species presented a coherent relationship among themselves i.e., higher returnsassociated with high risks. Angelim Vermelho and Macaranduba stood out for the attractiveness, in an annual perspective.Key words: Forest economy, native tree species, attractiveness. RELACAO RISCO-RETORNO DE MADEIRA SERRADA DE ESPECIES NATIVAS NO ESTADO DO PARA, BRASIL 2003 – 2007

ATRATIVIDADE DO MERCADO MADEIREIRO AO INVESTIMENTO PRIVADO NO ESTADO DO PARÁ

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was analyze the risk-return of the main timber producing municipalities from 2008 to 2014. The geometric growth rate (TGC) was used as an indicator of return and the coefficient of variation (CV) as indicative of risk. The attractiveness of the timber market to private investment in the state of Para was quite varied among the municipalities evaluated. The coherent risk/return ratio has positive values for the expectation of return, that is, it attracts investment, however, in the municipalities that presented negative values, the risk/return relationship was incoherent and consequently would not attract private investment. There was also an attractive market for different investor profiles classified as risk averse, traditional and risk prone. Most municipalities are classified as attractive to the traditional investor. According to the results, it is concluded that the timber market of the municipalities of the state of Para is in large part coherent and more attractive to private investment of a traditional profile. KEYWORDS : Forest economy, Risk and return, Timber market.

Risk-return and difference of Ipe wood price in Pará and São Paulo markets.

This study estimated the relation risk-return and the trend of the price difference among the markets of consumers of Ipe amarelo (Tabebuia serratifolia) sawn wood in the State of Para and the cities of Bauru, Campinas, and Sorocaba,. It was considered as indicative of risk the Coefficient of Variation (CV), and as indicative of return the Rate of Geometric Growth (RGG) of the price series that was also used to estimate the trend of the price difference among the markets. It was noted that the risk-return relationship is coherent in all markets, and the city of Sorocaba stands out with the greatest estimative in both risk and return, and presents increase trend of the price difference among State of Para market, which presented a temporal deficit in the price increase compared to other markets analyzed.

Brazilian sawn wood price and income elasticity

This study estimated the sawn wood demand price and income elasticity. Specifically it was estimated the price elasticity of sawn wood, the cross price elasticity of wood panels and the income elasticity of Brazilian GDP. A log-log model with correction through outline of the mobile average (MA(1)) was used, adjusted for the period of 1971 to 2006, which showed to be stable, with satisfactory significance levels. It was observed that sawn wood demand is inelastic in relation to price and elastic in relation to income.

Análise de tendência do mercado internacional de aglomerado

n This study analyzed international particleboard market tendency in the period from 1990 to 2004, using the linear regression method. Growth tendency was observed both for production and export, stressing that Brazilis production is expanding in a more accelerated rhythm than the world production. China, Ukraine and USA presented a greater production, export and import growth among the traditional markets, respectively, and the nontraditional markets presented greater growth tendencies, compared to the major import groups, especially East Europe