Jürgen Determann

Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current

The Antarctic ice sheet loses mass at its fringes bordering the Southern Ocean. At this boundary, warm circumpolar water can override the continental slope front, reaching the grounding line through submarine glacial troughs and causing high rates of melting at the deep ice-shelf bases. The interplay between ocean currents and continental bathymetry is therefore likely to influence future rates of ice-mass loss. Here we show that a redirection of the coastal current into the Filchner Trough and underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf during the second half of the twenty-first century would lead to increased movement of warm waters into the deep southern ice-shelf cavity. Water temperatures in the cavity would increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius and boost average basal melting from 0.2 metres, or 82 billion tonnes, per year to almost 4 metres, or 1,600 billion tonnes, per year. Our results, which are based on the output of a coupled ice–ocean model forced by a range of atmospheric outputs from the HadCM3 climate model, suggest that the changes would be caused primarily by an increase in ocean surface stress in the southeastern Weddell Sea due to thinning of the formerly consolidated sea-ice cover. The projected ice loss at the base of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf represents 80 per cent of the present Antarctic surface mass balance. Thus, the quantification of basal mass loss under changing climate conditions is important for projections regarding the dynamics of Antarctic ice streams and ice shelves, and global sea level rise.

Thermohaline circulation and interaction between ice shelf cavities and the adjacent open ocean

The circulation system in an ice shelf cavity is driven by buoyancy fluxes due to melting and freezing of ice and horizontal pressure gradients at the interface between the cavity and the open ocean. Hence the inflow and outflow pattern and the hydrography in the open ocean influence the general hydrographic condition in the cavity, which at least provides the potential for melting and freezing processes. Applying a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model to an idealized ice shelf cavity geometry coupled with an open ocean at a topographic ice shelf barrier, we found an important parameter controlling the interaction between these two systems. Idealized studies for different ice shelf and sea bottom topographies and forcing mechanisms for the open ocean show that the ice shelf edge represents a natural barrier for barotropic interaction, because of the sudden decrease in water column thickness. Since the water column thickness and the Coriolis force determine the characteristics for geostrophic flow, separated circulation systems arise for the open ocean and the ice shelf cavity. Only in areas where constant water column thickness and, from the oceanographic point of view, constant f/H contours can be observed across the barrier, an increased barotropic current can surmount the ice edge and ventilate the water mass beneath the ice shelf. This is only the case at lateral sloping sidewalls or at deep depressions, which can be found, for example, in the southern Weddell Sea. In all other cases the circulation in the ice shelf cavity is closed and almost unaffected by the hydrography outside the barrier.

Ocean circulation and ice‐ocean interaction beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Simulations of the ocean dynamics in the cavity under the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica, were carried out using a three-dimensional numerical ocean model. Two different boundary conditions were used to describe the open ocean barotropic exchange at the ice front. The simulations show that the circulation in the ocean cavity is predominantly barotropic and is generally steered by the cavity topography. The circulation is driven by the density gradient in the cavity, which is strongly influenced by the heat and salt fluxes from melting and freezing processes at the ice-ocean interface, and by the horizontal exchange of heat and salt across the open ocean boundary at the ice front. The interaction at the ice-ocean interface allows the basal component of the mass loss of the Amery Ice Shelf to be estimated. In the two simulations the computed losses were 5.8 Gt yr−1 and 18.0 Gt yr−1, values consistent with observations. The bulk of the melting occurred near the southern grounding line of the ice shelf, although substantial melting also occurred in areas where heat transport by horizontal circulation was large. Accretion was restricted to areas where water, from upstream melting, became supercooled as it ascended the ice shelf base.

Ocean circulation beneath Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf from three‐dimensional model results

A high-resolution three-dimensional ocean circulation model is applied to the cavity beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS). The model predicts predominantly barotropic currents which form a series of cyclonic gyres in the deep basins and anticyclonic circulations around the islands. The surface circulation can be such that the water moves in the direction of decreasing or increasing ice thicknesses, in the former case leading to freezing, while melting at the ice shelf base results in the latter case. The pattern of melting and freezing is consistent with known distributions of marine ice and melting areas beneath FRIS. An anticyclonic circulation around the Korff and Henry Ice Rises with melting west of Korff Ice Rise and freezing on the eastern side and north of Henry Ice Rise is the main source for an ice-pumping mechanism that produces the observed large marine ice body in the central Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. The estimates for net melting for realistic conditions at the open ocean boundary are 40-50 km 3 yr -1 , indicating that ice shelf-ocean interaction is an important contribution to the mass balance of the ice shelf.

Impact of ice-shelf basal melting on inland ice-sheet thickness: a model study

Abstract Ice flow from the ice sheets to the ocean contains the maximum potential contributing to future eustatic sea-level rise. In Antarctica most mass fluxes occur via the extended ice-shelf regions covering more than half the Antarctic coastline. The most extended ice shelves are the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves, which contribute ~30% to the total mass loss caused by basal melting. Basal melt rates here show small to moderate average amplitudes of <0.5ma–1. By comparison, the smaller but most vulnerable ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Seas show much higher melt rates (up to 30 ma–1), but overall basal mass loss is comparably small due to the small size of the ice shelves. The pivotal question for both characteristic ice-shelf regions, however, is the impact of ocean melting, and, coevally, change in ice-shelf thickness, on the flow dynamics of the hinterland ice masses. In theory, ice-shelf back-pressure acts to stabilize the ice sheet, and thus the ice volume stored above sea level. We use the three-dimensional (3-D) thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY to investigate the ice flow in a regularly shaped model domain, including ice-sheet, ice-shelf and open-ocean regions. By using melting scenarios for perturbation studies, we find a hysteresis-like behaviour. The experiments show that the system regains its initial state when perturbations are switched off. Average basal melt rates of up to 2 ma–1 as well as spatially variable melting calculated by our 3-D ocean model ROMBAX act as basal boundary conditions in time-dependent model studies. Changes in ice volume and grounding-line position are monitored after 1000 years of modelling and reveal mass losses of up to 40 Gt a–1.