Malte Thoma

Modelling Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica

Results are presented from an isopycnic coordinate model of ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea, focusing on the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the inner continental shelf around Pine Island Bay. The warmest waters to reach this region are channeled through a submarine trough, accessed via bathymetric irregularities along the shelf break. Temporal variability in the influx of CDW is related to regional wind forcing. Easterly winds over the shelf edge change to westerlies when the Amundsen Sea Low migrates west and south in winter/spring. This drives seasonal on-shelf flow, while inter-annual changes in the wind forcing lead to inflow variability on a decadal timescale. A modelled period of warming following low CDW influx in the late 1980s and early 1990s coincides with a period of observed thinning and acceleration of Pine Island Glacier.

Location for direct access to subglacial Lake Ellsworth: An assessment of geophysical data and modeling

Ellsworth is 14.7 km ×3 .1 km with an area of 28.9 km 2 . Lake depth increases downlake from 52 m to 156 m, with a water body volume of 1.37 km 3 . The ice thickness suggests an unusual thermodynamic characteristic, with the critical pressure boundary intersecting the lake. Numerical modeling of water circulation has allowed accretion of basal ice to be estimated. We collate this physiographic and modeling information to confirm that Lake Ellsworth is ideal for direct access and propose an optimal drill site. The likelihood of dissolved gas exchange between the lake and the borehole is also assessed. Citation: Woodward, J., A. M. Smith, N. Ross, M. Thoma, H. F. J. Corr, E. C. King, M. A. King, K. Grosfeld, M. Tranter, and M. J. Siegert (2010), Location for direct access to subglacial Lake Ellsworth: An assessment of geophysical data and modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L11501, doi:10.1029/ 2010GL042884.

Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024

We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.

Ice-flow sensitivity to boundary processes: a coupled model study in the Vostok Subglacial Lake area, Antarctica

Abstract Several hundred subglacial lakes have been identified beneath Antarctica so far. Their interaction with the overlying ice sheet and their influence on ice dynamics are still subjects of investigation. While it is known that lakes reduce the ice-sheet friction towards a free-slip basal boundary condition, little is known about how basal melting and freezing at the lake/ice interface modifies the ice dynamics, thermal regime and ice rheology. In this diagnostic study we simulate the Vostok Subglacial Lake area with a coupled full Stokes 3-D ice-flow model and a 3-D lake-circulation model. The exchange of energy (heat) and mass at the lake/ice interface increases (decreases) the temperature in the ice column above the lake by up to 10% in freezing (melting) areas, resulting in a significant modification of the highly nonlinear ice viscosity. We show that basal lubrication at the bottom of the ice sheet has a significant impact not only on the ice flow above the lake itself, but also on the vicinity and far field. While the ice flow crosses Vostok Subglacial Lake, flow divergence is observed and modelled. The heterogeneous basal-mass-balance pattern at the lake/ice interface intensifies this divergence. Instead of interactive coupling between the ice-flow model and the lake-flow model, only a single iteration is required for a realistic representation of the ice/water interaction. In addition, our study indicates that simplified parameterizations of the surface temperature boundary condition might lead to a velocity error of 20% for the area of investigation.

Ocean temperature thresholds for Last Interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the major contributor to global sea level rise in the Last Interglacial (LIG) and potentially in the future. Exposed fossil reef terraces suggest sea levels in excess of 7 meters in the last warm era, of which probably not much more than 2 meters are considered to originate from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We simulate the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the LIG with a 3D thermomechanical ice sheet model forced by an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Our results show that high LIG sea levels, cannot be reproduced with the atmosphere-ocean forcing delivered by current AOGCMs. However, when taking reconstructed Southern Ocean temperature anomalies of several degrees, sensitivity studies indicate a Southern Ocean temperature anomaly threshold for total WAIS collapse of 2-3∘C, accounting for a sea level rise of 3-4 meters during the LIG. Potential future Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics range from a moderate retreat to a complete collapse, depending on rate and amplitude of warming.

Impact of ice-shelf basal melting on inland ice-sheet thickness: a model study

Abstract Ice flow from the ice sheets to the ocean contains the maximum potential contributing to future eustatic sea-level rise. In Antarctica most mass fluxes occur via the extended ice-shelf regions covering more than half the Antarctic coastline. The most extended ice shelves are the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves, which contribute ~30% to the total mass loss caused by basal melting. Basal melt rates here show small to moderate average amplitudes of <0.5ma–1. By comparison, the smaller but most vulnerable ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Seas show much higher melt rates (up to 30 ma–1), but overall basal mass loss is comparably small due to the small size of the ice shelves. The pivotal question for both characteristic ice-shelf regions, however, is the impact of ocean melting, and, coevally, change in ice-shelf thickness, on the flow dynamics of the hinterland ice masses. In theory, ice-shelf back-pressure acts to stabilize the ice sheet, and thus the ice volume stored above sea level. We use the three-dimensional (3-D) thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY to investigate the ice flow in a regularly shaped model domain, including ice-sheet, ice-shelf and open-ocean regions. By using melting scenarios for perturbation studies, we find a hysteresis-like behaviour. The experiments show that the system regains its initial state when perturbations are switched off. Average basal melt rates of up to 2 ma–1 as well as spatially variable melting calculated by our 3-D ocean model ROMBAX act as basal boundary conditions in time-dependent model studies. Changes in ice volume and grounding-line position are monitored after 1000 years of modelling and reveal mass losses of up to 40 Gt a–1.

The Deformational Response of a Viscoelastic Solid Earth Model Coupled to a Thermomechanical Ice Sheet Model

We apply a coupled thermomechanical ice sheet—self-gravitating viscoelastic solid Earth model (SGVEM), allowing for the dynamic exchange of ice thickness and bedrock deformation, in order to investigate the effect of viscoelastic deformation on ice dynamics and vice versa. In a synthetic glaciation scenario, we investigate the interaction between the ice sheet and the solid Earth deformation, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), accounting for an atmospheric forcing depending on the ice sheet surface altitude. We compare the results from the coupled model to runs with the common elastic lithosphere/relaxing asthenosphere (ELRA) model, where the lithosphere is represented by a thin plate and the mantle relaxes with one characteristic relaxation time, as well as to a rigid Earth without any deformation. We find that the deformational behaviour of the SGVEM on ice dynamics (i.e. stored ice volume, ice thickness and velocity field) is comparable to the ELRA for an optimal choice of the parameters in steady state, but exhibits differences in the transient behaviour. Beyond the ice sheet, in the region of peripheral forebulge, the differences in the transient surface deformation between ELRA and SGVEM are substantial, demonstrating the inadequacy of the ELRA model for interpreting constraints on GIA in the periphery of the ice sheet, such as sea-level indicators and GPS uplift rates.

Advances in modelling subglacial lakes and their interaction with the Antarctic ice sheet

Subglacial lakes have long been considered hydraulically isolated water bodies underneath ice sheets. This view changed radically with the advent of repeat-pass satellite altimetry and the discovery of multiple lake discharges and water infill, associated with water transfer over distances of more than 200 km. The presence of subglacial lakes also influences ice dynamics, leading to glacier acceleration. Furthermore, subglacial melting under the Antarctic ice sheet is more widespread than previously thought, and subglacial melt rates may explain the availability for water storage in subglacial lakes and water transport. Modelling of subglacial water discharge in subglacial lakes essentially follows hydraulics of subglacial channels on a hard bed, where ice sheet surface slope is a major control on triggering subglacial lake discharge. Recent evidence also points to the development of channels in deformable sediment in West Antarctica, with significant water exchanges between till and ice. Most active lakes drain over short time scales and respond rapidly to upstream variations. Several Antarctic subglacial lakes exhibit complex interactions with the ice sheet due to water circulation. Subglacial lakes can therefore—from a modelling point of view—be seen as confined small oceans underneath an imbedded ice shelf.

Numerical model studies of Antarctic ice-sheet-ice-shelf-ocean systems and ice caps

Abstract The cryosphere is an essential component of the global climate system, equally affecting climate processes significantly and being subject, and particularly sensitive, to changes in climate conditions. Numerical models are an important tool for assessing climate-change impacts on the Antarctic ice–sheet–ice–shelf–ocean system. They not only complement field and satellite remotesensing investigations but are often the only feasible alternative for addressing some of the important parameters and processes. Over the last few years, our group has made significant progress in developing and applying innovative numerical methods. In this paper, we provide a brief overview of some of the methods employed and the major results obtained for a number of case studies in the Atlantic sector of Antarctica.

Integration of Passive Tracers in a Three-Dimensional Ice Sheet Model

Components of the climate system, such as ice sheets and marine sediments serve as invaluable archives, which can be tapped into, to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions. The relative abundance of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in ice cores is a proxy for past local temperature evolution. However the translation of these proxies into temperature is not straightforward. Complex interdependencies in the climate system can hide or override the local climate signal at which the ice core was drilled. Using 3D ice sheet modelling in concert with passive tracer advection one can simulate the isotopic distribution in ice sheets and compare them to ice core data. Combining this method in a coupled climate model environment, containing atmosphere and ocean components, one can theoretically simulate the isotopic cycle from the source to the actual ice record. Such an approach would greatly support the interpretation of proxy data whilst constraining the output of 3D ice sheet models (ISMs). We present the implementation of passive tracer advection in our 3D ISM RIMBAY (Thoma et al. in Geosci Model Dev 1:1–21, 2014, Goeller et al. in Cryosphere 7:1095–1106, 2014) and asses the potential of the method to reproduce chronologies of the polar ice sheets.