Jürgen Scheffran

One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

Raiding pastoral livelihoods: motives and effects of violent conflict in north-western Kenya

Conflicts related to livestock raiding are not new phenomena in many pastoral societies in the Horn of Africa. Traditionally, various pastoral communities use raiding as a cultural practice for restocking of herds, especially after periods of drought or outbreaks of diseases. However, in recent years, livestock raiding has become more frequent, violent and destructive.This paper elucidates, first, the motives behind the current livestock raiding, and second, it analyses how conflict affects livelihoods of pastoral communities. Between 2008 and 2011, focus group discussions and interviews were carried out with 376 members of the Turkana and Pokot communities and key informants.The study findings suggest that hunger and drought impacting on availability and access of resources are critical raiding motives among the Turkana, while increasing wealth and payment of dowry are the most important motives for the Pokot community. Violent conflict poses a significant threat to pastoral livelihoods which are already under pressure from recurrent drought, diseases and political marginalisation. The direct impact of violent raiding is felt in terms of loss of human life and property, reduction in livestock numbers, limited access to water and pasture resources and forced migration. Indirectly, violent conflicts create a strong and omnipresent perception of insecurity which results in ineffective resource utilisation, reduced mobility, food insecurity and closure of markets and schools. These factors combined undermine adaptation strategies and pastoralism altogether. Hence, a framework of conflict mitigation is needed which addresses the specific raiding motives of each group.

Handbook of bioenergy economics and policy

Bioenergy Economics and Policy: Introduction and Overview.- Are Biofuels the Best Use of Sunlight?.- Perennial Grasses as Second-Generation Sustainable Feedstocks Without Conflict with Food Production.- Present and Future Possibilities for the Deconstruction and Utilization of Lignocellulosic Biomass.- Interactions Between Biofuels, Agricultural Markets and Trade.- Price Transmission in the US Ethanol Market.- Biofuels and Agricultural Growth: Challenges for Developing Agricultural Economies and Opportunities for Investment.- Prospects for Ethanol and Biodiesel, 2008 to 2017 and Impacts on Agriculture and Food.- The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food?Fuel Trade-Offs?.- Demand Behavior and Commodity Price Volatility Under Evolving Biofuel Markets and Policies.- Designing the Infrastructure for Biofuels.- Optimizing the Biofuels Infrastructure: Transportation Networks and Biorefinery Locations in Illinois.- The Capital Efficiency Challenge of Bioenergy Models: The Case of Flex Mills in Brazil.- Environmental Effects of Biofuels and Biofuel Policies.- Could Bioenergy Be Used to Harvest the Greenhouse: An Economic Investigation of Bioenergy and Climate Change?.- A Simple Framework for Regulation of Biofuels.- Market and Social Welfare Effects of the Renewable Fuels Standard.- US-Brazil Trade in Biofuels: Determinants, Constraints, and Implications for Trade Policy.- Food and Biofuel in a Global Environment.- Meeting Biofuels Targets: Implications for Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Nitrogen Use in Illinois.- Corn Stover Harvesting: Potential Supply and Water Quality Implications.- Economic Effects of Bioenergy Policies.- International Trade Patterns and Policy for Ethanol in the United States.- The Welfare Economics of Biofuel Tax Credits and Mandates.- Biofuels, Policy Options, and Their Implications: Analyses Using Partial and General Equilibrium Approaches.- Welfare and Equity Implications of Commercial Biofuel.- European Biofuel Policy: How Far Will Public Support Go?.- Conclusions.

Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan

Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory services.

Optimizing the Biofuels Infrastructure: Transportation Networks and Biorefinery Locations in Illinois

Growing biofuel mandates pose considerable challenges to the infrastructure needed across all stages of the supply chain − from crop production, feedstock harvesting, storage, transportation, and processing to biofuel distribution and use. This chapter focuses on the biofuel transportation and distribution network infrastructure, using Illinois as a case study. Building on an optimal land use allocation model for feedstock production, a mathematical programming model is used to determine optimal locations and capacities of biorefineries, delivery of bioenergy crops to biorefineries, and processing and distribution of ethanol and co-products (DDGS). The model aims to minimize total system costs in a multiyear planning horizon for the period of 2007–2022. Certain locations may be more suitable for corn and corn stover-based ethanol plants, others more for producing ethanol using perennial grasses (miscanthus)

Methods for Long-Term Environmental Policy Challenges

This article provides a concise overview of methods for analyzing policy choices that have been used in the study of long-term environmental challenges. We open with an overview of the broad classes of methods used for long-term policy analysis, and subsequent sections will describe in depth three particular methods. They are: statistical models, such as employed in the debate on the environmental Kuznets curve, which infer past patterns from data and project them into the future; robust decision-making, a decision analytic framework that supports choices under deep uncertainty, and relates near-term policy interventions to different clusters of long-term environmental futures; and adaptive control and agent-based modeling, which provide an approach to simulation modeling that focuses on cooperation and conflict among multiple actors and their choice of strategies. While all three approaches can be used for various applications, this article focuses on the challenge of a potential transition to a low-carbon future to illustrate the strengths, weaknesses, and synergies among the respective methods. In the final section, we offer guidance for choosing among methods.

Climate change, human security and violent conflict

Part I Introduction.- Part II Climate Change, Human Security, Societal Stability, and Violent Conflict: Empirical and Theoretical Linkages.- Part III Climate Change and the Securitization Discourse.- Part IV Climate Change and Migration.- Part V Climate Change and Security in the Middle East.- Part VI Climate Change and Security in Africa.- Part VII Climate Change and Security in Asia and the Pacific.- Part VIII Improving Climate Security: Cooperative Policies and Capacity-Building.- Part IX Conclusions and Outlook.- Abbreviations.- Biographies of Contributors.- Index.

Climate-related flood risks and urban responses in the Pearl River Delta, China

Abstract Growing concern on climate-related flood hazards has led to increasing interest in understanding the interactions between climate, flood, and human responses. This paper jointly investigates climate change trends, impacts on flood events, flood vulnerability and risk, and response strategies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a rapidly urbanizing coastal area in southeast China. Our analysis based on a reanalysis dataset and model projections are integrated with literature results, which indicates a climate scenario of increasing mean temperature, precipitation, sea level, typhoon intensity, and the frequency of extreme weather events in the PRD. These trends, together with the continuing urbanization in flood-prone areas, are expected to increase flood frequency and aggravate both the scale and degree of flooding in the PRD area. We further estimate the flood vulnerability of the 11 PRD cities using the indicator system method. The results suggest that the exposure and sensitivity of central cities (Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou) are very high because of highly exposed populations and assets located in lowland areas. However, the potential vulnerability and risk can be low due to high adaptive capacities (both by hard and soft flood-control measures). A novel framework on flood responses is proposed to identify vulnerable links and response strategies in different phases of a flood event. It further suggests that the flood risks can be mitigated by developing an integrated climate response strategy, releasing accurate early warning and action guidance, sharing flood-related information, and applying the advantages of online social network analysis.

The dynamic interaction between economy and ecology cooperation, stability and sustainability for a dynamic-game model of resource conflicts

The interaction between economic and ecologic dynamic systems is analyzed with a multi-player dynamic game, in which each player invests and allocates available capital to the production or consumption of natural resources and goods, and evaluates the outcome of all players’ actions as well as the reactions of the ecosystem. During the course of repeated actions a dynamic process evolves such that the players adapt the amount of investment and the direction of its allocation according to their action preferences. For stability of the interaction matrix the players can form stable coalitions. Cooperation and negotiation on the amount and the allocation of investment could lead to more sustainable use of natural resources. The dynamic coalition-formation process corresponds to a self-organized transition from unilateral action (Nash equilibria) to multilateral cooperation (Pareto optima). With increasing number of players the complexity–stability tradeoff limits the stable coalition size. As an example for resource conflicts the exploitation of fish resources is simulated, for different fish populations and different players harvesting fish.

Security Risks of Climate Change: Vulnerabilities, Threats, Conflicts and Strategies

With growing indications of climate change, the expected impacts and risks pose a major challenge for society, foreign policy and security (Ott 2001). The issue is complex and covers highly uncertain future developments which preclude simple predictions from previous data. The recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) point to new risks, but do not focus on the linkages between climate change and potential social tensions and conflicts (IPCC 2007a; Nordas/Gleditsch 2009). Worldwide, devastating impacts on food and water availability, flood and storm disasters and large-scale events, such as loss of the monsoon, breakdown of the thermahaline circulation, polar ice melting, or sealevel rise, could affect large populations. It is unclear yet how human beings and their societies will respond to the expected dramatic consequences of climate change and whether the social stress will lead to more security risks and conflicts or to more cooperation.