P. Michael Link

Climate Change and Violent Conflict

Current debates over the relation between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena.

Theories and Models of Climate-Security Interaction: Framework and Application to a Climate Hot Spot in North Africa

In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses serious risks that could undermine the living conditions of people all over the world (IPCC 2007). Impacts on food and water availability, flood and storm disasters, and large-scale events such as loss of the monsoon, breakdown of the thermohaline circulation, polar ice melting, or sea level rise could affect a considerable fraction of the global population. After publication of this report a number of studies suggested that the struggle for food and water, the impact of natural disasters, and large-scale migration could pose security risks that would destabilize social systems and aggravate existing conflicts. These concerns inspired a debate on the securitization of climate change (Waever 1995; Brauch 2009b). The IPCC reports did not focus on the links between climate change, security, and conflict (IPCC 2007; Nordas/ Gleditsch 2009), although statements by IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri upon acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize suggest such a linkage. In its planned fifth assessment report, the IPCC will include a chapter on the human security dimensions of climate change.

The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies

The role of climate change as a potential cause of violent conflict has been debated in the scholarly and policy communities for several years. We review the most recent quantitative and qualitative literature and find that research on the issue has produced little consensual findings so far. Further, we discuss major theoretical, conceptual and empirical issues and describe possible pathways linking climate change to violent conflict. To illustrate these issues, we analyse the climate-conflict nexus in different world regions and present three qualitative case studies in north-western Kenya, the Nile Basin, and Israel/Palestine. We find that possible reasons for the lack of scientific consensus may be the difficulties of existing approaches to adequately capture the complex links between climate change, vulnerability, and violent conflict.

Possible Implications of Climate Engineering for Peace and Security

What: An international group of scientists reviewed the potential consequences of climate engineering and provided a first mapping of the problem landscape, identifying knowledge gaps and emerging research questions. When: 10–11 November 2011 Where: Hamburg, Germany T here is a growing discussion about the intentional manipulation and control of the climate system—known as “geoengineering” or “climate engineering.” This is in part due to some scientists and political authorities considering geoengineering as a necessary “plan B” option for a “global last resort” to counter catastrophic climate change. While research on climate engineering is already attracting resources and interest, there is a lack of understanding of the potential consequences, in particular for peace and security. A workshop1 held at the University of Hamburg, Germany, in the fall of 2011 examined these issues to identify gaps in our understanding of geoengineering and to address emerging questions (the conference program is available at http://clisec.zmaw.de /Conference-program.1929.0.html). In the opening keynote speech, an overview of the different possibilities for geoengineering Earth’s climate generally identified two fundamental categories: carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM). The overarching goal of all measures is to offset climate change. However, it was argued that geoengineering cannot replace mitigation and adaptation measures when it comes to dealing with climate change—hence, reduction of carbon dioxide emissions remains of utmost importance.

Coast to coast: current multidisciplinary research trends in German coastal and marine geography

Coastal and Marine Geography is a rapidly developing area of research within the Geosciences in Germany, generating new insights into highly dynamic environments that are constantly subject to change. This research field combines different theoretical and methodological approaches from various associated disciplines to explore the natural and societal dimensions of coasts and seas. In this special issue, we bring together these multidisciplinary research approaches applied from coast to coast. This special issue of the Journal of Coastal Conservation is based on the research of members of the “Working Group on Coastal andMarine Geography” (Arbeitskreis Geographie der Meere und Küsten, AMK). In 1983, the AMKwas founded as a specialty group of the German Geographical Society. Since then, annual meetings have been held to present and discuss current trends of coastal and marine geography. The 33rd annual AMK conference took place in Hamburg, Germany, in May 2015 and the 34th conference was held in April 2016 in Rostock-Warnemünde, Germany. This issue contains key papers of the presentations given at these two meetings. They present highlights of coastal and marine research that (1) addresses the development and changes of the natural environment of the interface between land and sea, and (2) explores human-environment interaction, human perceptions, and governance structures that define and transform coastal and marine areas. The variety of contributions to this special issue resembles the diversity of subjects that were addressed at the aforementioned AMK meetings. One focus of the presentations at the 33rd annual meeting in Hamburg was the development of coastal zones in the Holocene, particularly addressing environmental dynamics and the influence of early human activities. With regard to human activities in the coastal zone, presentations assessed potentials and limitations of aquaculture and other use of marine resources, ecosystem services, as well as issues of coastal protection. These are crucial not only along the German coasts as the intensity of anthropogenic use of coastal zones is ever increasing. The 34th annual meeting in Warnemünde revisited these topics and expanded on key aspects. In particular, the role of humans in coastal development was the focus of the discussion. Current trends in coastal zone management were discussed as well as environmental risks (such as marine litter) that may adversely affect ecosystem services and the adaptive capacities of coastal zones in times of climate change. It has to be noted that despite the fact that the AMK is a German organization, its research is not geographically limited to German coasts and the adjacent seas. Members of AMK regularly conduct research along African coasts and the Mediterranean * P. Michael Link michael.link@uni-hamburg.de

Energy Landscapes: Modeling of renewable energy resources with an emphasis on Northern Germany

What: A group of scientists discussed issues of the modeling of renewable energy resources within the context of climate change and land use with an emphasis on northern Germany, providing current research results, identifying knowledge gaps, and discussing emerging research questions. When: 17 July 2017 Where: Hamburg, Germany ENERGY LANDSCAPES Modeling of Renewable Energy Resources with an Emphasis on Northern Germany

Conclusions and Outlook: Research Results and Research Needs

The authors of this volume argue that research into the effects of climate change on human security, on societal stability, and on violent conflict is still in its early stages. There is, as yet, little in terms of established knowledge beyond the generally accepted proposition that climate change, if extensive, will have major effects on people, societies, states, and the international system.