Kangni Kpodar

The Magnitude and Distribution of Fuel Subsidies: Evidence from Bolivia, Ghana, Jordan, Mali, and Sri Lanka

With the recent jump in world oil prices, the issue of petroleum product pricing has become increasingly important in developing countries. Reflecting a reluctance of many governments to pass these price increases onto energy users, energy price subsidies are absorbing an increasing share of scarce public resources. This paper identifies the issues that need to be discussed when analyzing the fiscal and social costs of fuel subsidies. Using examples from analyses recently undertaken for five countries, it also identifies the magnitude of consumer subsidies and their fiscal implications. The results of the analysis show that - in all of these countries - energy subsidies have significant social and fiscal costs and are badly targeted.

Islamic Banking: How Has it Diffused?

This paper investigates the determinants of the pattern of Islamic bank diffusion around the world using country-level data for 1992 - 2006. The analysis illustrates that income per capita, share of Muslims in the population and status as an oil producer are linked to the development of Islamic banking, as are economic integration with Middle Eastern countries and proximity to Islamic financial centers. Interest rates have a negative impact on Islamic banking, reflecting the implicit benchmark for Islamic banks. The quality of institutions does not matter, probably because the often higher hurdle set by Shariah law trumps the quality of local institutions in most countries. The 9/11 attacks were not important to the diffusion of Islamic banking; but they coincided with rising oil prices, which are a significant factor in the diffusion of Islamic banking. Islamic banks also appear to be complements to, rather than substitutes for, conventional banks.

ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth Evidence from African Countries

This paper studies the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, we investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating the impact of ICT on economic growth, we use a wide range of ICT indicators, including mobile and fixed telephone penetration rates and the cost of local calls. We address any endogeneity issues by using the System Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator. Financial inclusion is captured by variables measuring access to financial services, such as the number of deposits or loans per head, compiled by Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, and Martinez Peria (2007) and the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP, 2009). The results confirm that ICT, including mobile phone development, contribute significantly to economic growth in African countries. Part of the positive effect of mobile phone penetration on growth comes from greater financial inclusion. At the same time, the development of mobile phones consolidates the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, especially in countries where mobile financial services take hold.

Financial Deepening in the CFA Franc Zone: The Role of Institutions

During the 1980s and early 1990s many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries undertook reforms to promote financial sector deepening. Nevertheless, financial sectors in SSA countries remain among the shallowest in the world and, within Sub-Saharan Africa, financial depth in the CFA franc zone is even more limited. This paper sets out to investigate empirically factors that may explain why financial depth in the CFA franc zone is shallower than in the rest of SSA using panel data for a sample of 40 countries for 1992-2006. The results indicate that the gap in financial development between the CFA franc zone countries and the rest of SSA can be explained by differences in institutional quality (e.g., availability of credit information, and strength and enforcement of property rights), variables that policy makers can influence.

Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changeson Household Expenditures; Evidence From Mali

Using an input-output approach, this paper assesses the distributional effects of a rise in various petroleum product prices in Mali. The results show that, although rising gasoline and diesel prices affect mainly nonpoor households, rising kerosene prices are most harmful to the poor. Overall, the impact of fuel prices on household budgets displays a U-shaped relationship with expenditure per capita. Regardless of the oil product considered, high-income households would benefit disproportionately from oil price subsidies. This suggests that a petroleum price subsidy is an ineffective mechanism for protecting the income of poor households compared with a targeted subsidy.

Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There be a Benefit Without a Cost?

This article investigates how financial development helps to reduce poverty directly through the McKinnon conduit effect and indirectly through economic growth. The results obtained with data for a sample of developing countries from 1966 through 2000 suggest that the poor benefit from the ability of the banking system to facilitate transactions and provide savings opportunities but to some extent fail to reap the benefit from greater availability of credit. Moreover, financial development is accompanied by financial instability, which is detrimental to the poor. Nevertheless, the benefits of financial development for the poor outweigh the cost.

Does financial structure matter for poverty ? evidence from developing countries

Although there has been research looking at the relationship between the structure of the financial system and economic growth, much less work has dealt with the importance of bank-based versus market-based financial systems for poverty and income distribution. Empirical evidence has indicated that the structure of the financial system has little relevance for economic growth, suggesting that the same could be true for poverty since growth is an important driver in reducing poverty. Some theories, however, claim that, by reducing information and transaction costs, the development of bank-based financial systems could exert a particularly large impact on the poor. This paper looks at a sample of 47 developing economies from 1984 through 2008. The results suggest that when institutions are weak, bank-based financial systems are better at reducing poverty and, as institutions develop, market-based financial systems can turn out to be beneficial for the poor.

Why has Unemployment in Algeria Been Higher than in MENA and Transition Countries

This paper analyzes the determinants of labor market performance in Algeria. When the model is estimated with panel data on a sample of MENA and transition countries for 1995- 2005, the results suggest that lower growth in labor productivity in Algeria is associated with higher unemployment than the sample average, though recent positive terms of trade shocks have helped Algeria reduce the differential. Labor market rigidities and labor taxation do not seem to explain why unemployment is higher in Algeria than in other countries. The results are robust to various panel econometric methods and instrumental variable estimates.

Short- Versus Long-Term Credit and Economic Performance: Evidence from the WAEMU

This paper studies the link between financial development and economic growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Using panel data for WAEMU countries over the period 1995-2006, the results suggest that while financial development does support growth in the region, long-term bank financing has a greater impact on economic growth than short-term financing because long-term projects have higher returns adjusted for risks. Given that in the WAEMU short-term credit accounts for about 70 percent of credit to the private sector, WAEMU countries are less able to reap the full benefits of improvements in their financial systems. The results also highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability, a creditor-friendly environment, political stability, and the availability of long-term financial resources in fostering banks’ supply of long-term loans.

Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Worsen Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation

This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.