Raju Jan Singh

Does financial structure matter for poverty ? evidence from developing countries

Although there has been research looking at the relationship between the structure of the financial system and economic growth, much less work has dealt with the importance of bank-based versus market-based financial systems for poverty and income distribution. Empirical evidence has indicated that the structure of the financial system has little relevance for economic growth, suggesting that the same could be true for poverty since growth is an important driver in reducing poverty. Some theories, however, claim that, by reducing information and transaction costs, the development of bank-based financial systems could exert a particularly large impact on the poor. This paper looks at a sample of 47 developing economies from 1984 through 2008. The results suggest that when institutions are weak, bank-based financial systems are better at reducing poverty and, as institutions develop, market-based financial systems can turn out to be beneficial for the poor.

Does migration foster exports ? evidence from Africa

This paper aims at assessing the impact of migration on export performance and more particularly the effect of African migrants on African trade. Relying on a new data set on international bilateral migration recently released by the World Bank spanning from 1980 to 2010, the authors estimate a gravity model that deals satisfactorily with endogeneity. The results first indicate that the pro-trade effect of migration is higher for African countries, a finding that can be partly explained by the substitution between migrants and institutions (the existence of migrant networks compensating for weak contract enforcement, for instance). This positive association is particularly important for the exports of differentiated products, suggesting that migrants also play an important role in reducing information costs. Moreover, focusing on intra-African trade, the pro-trade effect of African migrants is larger when migrants are established in a more geographically and ethnically distant country. All these findings highlight the ability of African migrants to help overcome some of the main barriers to African trade: the weakness of institutions, information costs, cultural differences, and lack of trust.

Guns, books, or doctors ? conflict and public spending in Haiti : lessons from cross-country evidence

Haitis economic development has been held back by a history of civil conflict and violence. With donor assistance declining from its exceptional levels following the 2010 earthquake, and concessional financing growing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budget constraints. At the same time, the United Nations forces that have provided security in the past decade are scaling down. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict, and draws possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period 1960-2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases in military spending would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, an observation in line with Haitis own history. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance), by contrast, would be associated with lower risk of conflict.