Kate Snow

Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

Ice shelves play a vital role in regulating loss of grounded ice and in supplying freshwater to coastal seas. However, melt variability within ice shelves is poorly constrained and may be instrumental in driving ice shelf imbalance and collapse. High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelfs grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt-driven sub-ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.

Ocean-Forced Ice-Shelf Thinning in a Synchronously Coupled Ice-Ocean Model

The first fully synchronous, coupled ice shelf-ocean model with a fixed grounding line and imposed upstream ice velocity has been developed using the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model). Unlike previous, asynchronous, approaches to coupled modeling our approach is fully conservative of heat, salt, and mass. Synchronous coupling is achieved by continuously updating the ice-shelf thickness on the ocean time step. By simulating an idealized, warm-water ice shelf we show how raising the pycnocline leads to a reduction in both ice-shelf mass and back stress, and hence buttressing. Coupled runs show the formation of a western boundary channel in the ice-shelf base due to increased melting on the western boundary due to Coriolis enhanced flow. Eastern boundary ice thickening is also observed. This is not the case when using a simple depth-dependent parameterized melt, as the ice shelf has relatively thinner sides and a thicker central “bulge” for a given ice-shelf mass. Ice-shelf geometry arising from the parameterized melt rate tends to underestimate backstress (and therefore buttressing) for a given ice-shelf mass due to a thinner ice shelf at the boundaries when compared to coupled model simulations.

Change in Dense Shelf Water and Adélie Land Bottom Water Precipitated by Iceberg Calving

Antarctic Bottom Water supplies the deep limb of the global overturning circulation and ventilates the abyssal ocean. Antarctic Bottom Water has warmed, freshened, and contracted in recent decades, but the causes remain poorly understood. We use unique multiyear observations from the continental shelf and deep ocean near the Mertz Polynya to examine the sensitivity of this bottom water formation region to changes on the continental shelf, including the calving of a large iceberg. Postcalving, the seasonal cycle of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) density almost halved in amplitude and the volume of DSW available for export reduced. In the deep ocean, the density and volume of Adelie Land Bottom Water decreased sharply after calving, while oxygen concentrations remained high, indicating continued ventilation by DSW. This natural experiment illustrates how local changes in forcing over the Antarctic continental shelf can drive large and rapid changes in the abyssal ocean.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.