Katya A. Shackelford

Mapping Plasmodium falciparum Mortality in Africa between 1990 and 2015

BACKGROUND Malaria control has not been routinely informed by the assessment of subnational variation in malaria deaths. We combined data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate malaria mortality across sub-Saharan Africa on a grid of 5 km2 from 1990 through 2015. METHODS We estimated malaria mortality using a spatiotemporal modeling framework of geolocated data (i.e., with known latitude and longitude) on the clinical incidence of malaria, coverage of antimalarial drug treatment, case fatality rate, and population distribution according to age. RESULTS Across sub-Saharan Africa during the past 15 years, we estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% (95% uncertainty interval, 46 to 65) in the rate of malaria deaths, from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval, 8.3 to 17.0) per 10,000 population in 2000 to 5.4 (95% uncertainty interval, 3.4 to 7.9) in 2015. This led to an overall decrease of 37% (95% uncertainty interval, 36 to 39) in the number of malaria deaths annually, from 1,007,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 666,000 to 1,376,000) to 631,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 394,000 to 914,000). The share of malaria deaths among children younger than 5 years of age ranged from more than 80% at a rate of death of more than 25 per 10,000 to less than 40% at rates below 1 per 10,000. Areas with high malaria mortality (>10 per 10,000) and low coverage (<50%) of insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarial drugs included much of Nigeria, Angola, and Cameroon and parts of the Central African Republic, Congo, Guinea, and Equatorial Guinea. CONCLUSIONS We estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% in the rate of death from malaria across sub-Saharan Africa over the past 15 years and identified several countries in which high rates of death were associated with low coverage of antimalarial treatment and prevention programs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

US County-Level Trends in Mortality Rates for Major Causes of Death, 1980-2014

Importance County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities. Objectives To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014. Design, Setting, and Participants Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death. These estimates were raked (scaled along multiple dimensions) to ensure consistency between causes and with existing national-level estimates. Geographic patterns in the age-standardized mortality rates in 2014 and in the change in the age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2014 for the 10 highest-burden causes were determined. Exposure County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures Cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates. Results A total of 80 412 524 deaths were recorded from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014, in the United States. Of these, 19.4 million deaths were assigned garbage codes. Mortality rates were analyzed for 3110 counties or groups of counties. Large between-county disparities were evident for every cause, with the gap in age-standardized mortality rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentiles varying from 14.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases) to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cardiovascular diseases). Geographic regions with elevated mortality rates differed among causes: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality tended to be highest along the southern half of the Mississippi River, while mortality rates from self-harm and interpersonal violence were elevated in southwestern counties, and mortality rates from chronic respiratory disease were highest in counties in eastern Kentucky and western West Virginia. Counties also varied widely in terms of the change in cause-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2014. For most causes (eg, neoplasms, neurological disorders, and self-harm and interpersonal violence), both increases and decreases in county-level mortality rates were observed. Conclusions and Relevance In this analysis of US cause-specific county-level mortality rates from 1980 through 2014, there were large between-county differences for every cause of death, although geographic patterns varied substantially by cause of death. The approach to county-level analyses with small area models used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into US disease-specific mortality time trends and their differences across geographic regions.

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Importance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. Objective To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes. Design, Settings, and Participants Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. Main Outcomes and Measures Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. Results There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. Conclusions and Relevance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

Global Burden of Multiple Myeloma: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Introduction Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell neoplasm with substantial morbidity and mortality. A comprehensive description of the global burden of MM is needed to help direct health policy, resource allocation, research, and patient care. Objective To describe the burden of MM and the availability of effective therapies for 21 world regions and 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting We report incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. Data sources include vital registration system, cancer registry, drug availability, and survey data for stem cell transplant rates. We analyzed the contribution of aging, population growth, and changes in incidence rates to the overall change in incident cases from 1990 to 2016 globally, by sociodemographic index (SDI) and by region. We collected data on approval of lenalidomide and bortezomib worldwide. Main Outcomes and Measures Multiple myeloma mortality; incidence; years lived with disabilities; years of life lost; and DALYs by age, sex, country, and year. Results Worldwide in 2016 there were 138 509 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 000-155 480) incident cases of MM with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.1 per 100 000 persons (95% UI, 1.8-2.3). Incident cases from 1990 to 2016 increased by 126% globally and by 106% to 192% for all SDI quintiles. The 3 world regions with the highest ASIR of MM were Australasia, North America, and Western Europe. Multiple myeloma caused 2.1 million (95% UI, 1.9-2.3 million) DALYs globally in 2016. Stem cell transplantation is routinely available in higher-income countries but is lacking in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East. In 2016, lenalidomide and bortezomib had been approved in 73 and 103 countries, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance Incidence of MM is highly variable among countries but has increased uniformly since 1990, with the largest increase in middle and low-middle SDI countries. Access to effective care is very limited in many countries of low socioeconomic development, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Global health policy priorities for MM are to improve diagnostic and treatment capacity in low and middle income countries and to ensure affordability of effective medications for every patient. Research priorities are to elucidate underlying etiological factors explaining the heterogeneity in myeloma incidence.

Factors influencing patients’ satisfaction at different levels of health facilities in Bangladesh: Results from patient exit interviews

There is a paucity in current literature about the level of patients’ satisfaction and factors influencing it in Bangladesh health system. We aimed to measure the level of patients’ satisfaction across different types and levels of healthcare facilities and to determine which factors influence this satisfaction level. A patient exit interview was carried out among 2207 patients attending selected health facilities in two administrative divisions of Bangladesh, namely Rajshahi and Sylhet. Information on healthcare experience and satisfaction with received care was collected through an electronic structured questionnaire. Information about ‘overall satisfaction with healthcare’ was collected on a 10-point scale and then dichotomized based on the median-split. Binomial logistic regressions, both simple and multivariable, were conducted to identify which factors contribute significantly to patients’ satisfaction. We found that 63.2% of the participants were satisfied with the healthcare service they received. Patients attending the private facilities had the highest level of satisfaction (i.e. 73%) and patients attending the primary care facilities had the lowest level of satisfaction (i.e. 52%). Factors like convenient opening hours, asking related questions to the providers, facility cleanliness and privacy settings were significantly associated with patients’ satisfaction. Being satisfied with facility cleanliness (multivariable OR 4.30; 95% CI: 3.29–5.62) and privacy settings (multivariable OR 1.68; 95% CI: 1.28–2.21) were the strongest predictors of patients’ satisfaction. In conclusion, a significant portion of the patients in Bangladesh are not satisfied with their received care. Patients’ satisfaction can be increased by focusing on improving facility cleanliness, privacy settings and providers’ interpersonal skills.

General service and child immunization-specific readiness assessment of healthcare facilities in two selected divisions in Bangladesh

BackgroundService readiness of health facilities is an integral part of providing comprehensive quality healthcare to the community. Comprehensive assessment of general and service-specific (i.e. child immunization) readiness will help to identify the bottlenecks in healthcare service delivery and gaps in equitable service provision. Assessing healthcare facilities readiness also helps in optimal policymaking and resource allocation.MethodsA health facility survey was conducted between March 2015 and December 2015 in two purposively selected divisions in Bangladesh; i.e. Rajshahi division (high performing) and Sylhet division (low performing). A total of 123 health facilities were randomly selected from different levels of service, both public and private, with variation in sizes and patient loads from the list of facilities. Data on various aspects of healthcare facility were collected by interviewing key personnel. General service and child immunization specific service readiness were assessed using the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) manual developed by World Health Organization (WHO). The analyses were stratified by division and level of healthcare facilities.ResultsThe general service readiness index for pharmacies, community clinics, primary care facilities and higher care facilities were 40.6%, 60.5%, 59.8% and 69.5%, respectively in Rajshahi division and 44.3%, 57.8%, 57.5% and 73.4%, respectively in Sylhet division. Facilities at all levels had the highest scores for basic equipment (ranged between 51.7% and 93.7%) and the lowest scores for diagnostic capacity (ranged between 0.0% and 53.7%). Though facilities with vaccine storage capacity had very high levels of service readiness for child immunization, facilities without vaccine storage capacity lacked availability of many tracer items. Regarding readiness for newly introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), most of the surveyed facilities reported lack of sufficient funding and resources (antigen) for training programs.ConclusionsOur study suggested that health facilities suffered from lack of readiness in various aspects, most notably in diagnostic capacity. Conversely, with very few challenges, nearly all the health facilities designated to provide immunization services were ready to deliver routine childhood immunization services as well as newly introduced PCV and IPV.