Kelly O. Maloney

Metacommunity theory as a multispecies, multiscale framework for studying the influence of river network structure on riverine communities and ecosystems

Abstract Explaining the mechanisms underlying patterns of species diversity and composition in riverine networks is challenging. Historically, community ecologists have conceived of communities as largely isolated entities and have focused on local environmental factors and interspecific interactions as the major forces determining species composition. However, stream ecologists have long embraced a multiscale approach to studying riverine ecosystems and have studied both local factors and larger-scale regional factors, such as dispersal and disturbance. River networks exhibit a dendritic spatial structure that can constrain aquatic organisms when their dispersal is influenced by or confined to the river network. We contend that the principles of metacommunity theory would help stream ecologists to understand how the complex spatial structure of river networks mediates the relative influences of local and regional control on species composition. From a basic ecological perspective, the concept is attractive because new evidence suggests that the importance of regional processes (dispersal) depends on spatial structure of habitat and on connection to the regional species pool. The role of local factors relative to regional factors will vary with spatial position in a river network. From an applied perspective, the long-standing view in ecology that local community composition is an indicator of habitat quality may not be uniformly applicable across a river network, but the strength of such bioassessment approaches probably will depend on spatial position in the network. The principles of metacommunity theory are broadly applicable across taxa and systems but seem of particular consequence to stream ecology given the unique spatial structure of riverine systems. By explicitly embracing processes at multiple spatial scales, metacommunity theory provides a foundation on which to build a richer understanding of stream communities.

RESEARCH ARTICLE: Production and Disposal of Waste Materials from Gas and Oil Extraction from the Marcellus Shale Play in Pennsylvania

The increasing world demand for energy has led to an increase in the exploration and extraction of natural gas, condensate, and oil from unconventional organic-rich shale plays. However, little is known about the quantity, transport, and disposal method of wastes produced during the extraction process. We examined the quantity of waste produced by gas extraction activities from the Marcellus Shale play in Pennsylvania for 2011. The main types of wastes included drilling cuttings and fluids from vertical and horizontal drilling and fluids generated from hydraulic fracturing [i.e., flowback and brine (formation) water]. Most reported drill cuttings (98.4%) were disposed of in landfills, and there was a high amount of interstate (49.2%) and interbasin (36.7%) transport. Drilling fluids were largely reused (70.7%), with little interstate (8.5%) and interbasin (5.8%) transport. Reported flowback water was mostly reused (89.8%) or disposed of in brine or industrial waste treatment plants (8.0%) and largely remained within Pennsylvania (interstate transport was 3.1%) with little interbasin transport (2.9%). Brine water was most often reused (55.7%), followed by disposal in injection wells (26.6%), and then disposed of in brine or industrial waste treatment plants (13.8%). Of the major types of fluid waste, brine water was most often transported to other states (28.2%) and to other basins (9.8%). In 2011, 71.5% of the reported brine water, drilling fluids, and flowback was recycled: 73.1% in the first half and 69.7% in the second half of 2011. Disposal of waste to municipal sewage treatment plants decreased nearly 100% from the first half to second half of 2011. When standardized against the total amount of gas produced, all reported wastes, except flowback sands, were less in the second half than the first half of 2011. Disposal of wastes into injection disposal wells increased 129.2% from the first half to the second half of 2011; other disposal methods decreased. Some issues with data were uncovered during the analytical process (e.g., correct geospatial location of disposal sites and the proper reporting of end use of waste) that obfuscated the analyses; correcting these issues will help future analyses.

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats.

Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have led to the exploration and exploitation of shale oil and gas both nationally and internationally. Extensive development of shale resources has occurred within the United States over the past decade, yet full build out is not expected to occur for years. Moreover, countries across the globe have large shale resources and are beginning to explore extraction of these resources. Extraction of shale resources is a multistep process that includes site identification, well pad and infrastructure development, well drilling, high-volume hydraulic fracturing and production; each with its own propensity to affect associated ecosystems. Some potential effects, for example from well pad, road and pipeline development, will likely be similar to other anthropogenic activities like conventional gas drilling, land clearing, exurban and agricultural development and surface mining (e.g., habitat fragmentation and sedimentation). Therefore, we can use the large body of literature available on the ecological effects of these activities to estimate potential effects from shale development on nearby ecosystems. However, other effects, such as accidental release of wastewaters, are novel to the shale gas extraction process making it harder to predict potential outcomes. Here, we review current knowledge of the effects of high-volume hydraulic fracturing coupled with horizontal drilling on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the contiguous United States, an area that includes 20 shale plays many of which have experienced extensive development over the past decade. We conclude that species and habitats most at risk are ones where there is an extensive overlap between a species range or habitat type and one of the shale plays (leading to high vulnerability) coupled with intrinsic characteristics such as limited range, small population size, specialized habitat requirements, and high sensitivity to disturbance. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

Landuse legacies and small streams: identifying relationships between historical land use and contemporary stream conditions

Abstract The concept of landscape legacies has been examined extensively in terrestrial ecosystems and has led to a greater understanding of contemporary ecosystem processes. However, although stream ecosystems are tightly coupled with their catchments and, thus, probably are affected strongly by historical catchment conditions, few studies have directly examined the importance of landuse legacies on streams. We examined relationships between historical land use (1944) and contemporary (2000–2003) stream physical, chemical, and biological conditions after accounting for the influences of contemporary land use (1999) and natural landscape (catchment size) variation in 12 small streams at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. Most stream variables showed strong relationships with contemporary land use and catchment size; however, after accounting for these factors, residual variation in many variables remained significantly related to historical land use. Residual variation in benthic particulate organic matter, diatom density, % of diatoms in Eunotia spp., fish density in runs, and whole-stream gross primary productivity correlated negatively, whereas streamwater pH correlated positively, with residual variation in fraction of disturbed land in catchments in 1944 (i.e., bare ground and unpaved road cover). Residual variation in % recovering land (i.e., early successional vegetation) in 1944 was correlated positively with residual variation in streambed instability, a macroinvertebrate biotic index, and fish richness, but correlated negatively with residual variation in most benthic macroinvertebrate metrics examined (e.g., Chironomidae and total richness, Shannon diversity). In contrast, residual variation in whole-stream respiration rates was not explained by historical land use. Our results suggest that historical land use continues to influence important physical and chemical variables in these streams, and in turn, probably influences associated biota. Beyond providing insight into biotic interactions and their associations with environmental conditions, identification of landuse legacies also will improve understanding of stream impairment in contemporary minimally disturbed catchments, enabling more accurate assessment of reference conditions in studies of biotic integrity and restoration.

Land use history alters the relationship between native and exotic plants: the rich don't always get richer

Observational studies of diversity have consistently found positive correlations between native and exotic species, suggesting that the same environmental factors that drive native species richness also drive exotic species richness, i.e., “the rich get richer”. We examined patterns of native and exotic plant species richness in temperate forests that have been undergoing reforestation since the turn of the twentieth century to test the influence of disturbance arising from land-use history on this relationship. Overall, we found no relationship between native and exotic plant species richness. Instead, we found a positive relationship between native and exotic richness in older but not younger-growth forests, suggesting that the same processes that drove exotic plant richness in older forests also facilitated native plants. In contrast, younger forests had similar numbers of native species relative to older forests, but 41% more exotic species and 24% more compacted soils. Moreover, exotic but not native species richness was positively correlated with increasing soil compaction across all sites. Overall, our results suggest that elevated exotic plant invasions in younger forests are a legacy of soil disturbance arising from agricultural practices at the turn of the century, and that native and exotic plants may respond differentially to disparate environmental drivers.

Boosted Beta Regression

Regression analysis with a bounded outcome is a common problem in applied statistics. Typical examples include regression models for percentage outcomes and the analysis of ratings that are measured on a bounded scale. In this paper, we consider beta regression, which is a generalization of logit models to situations where the response is continuous on the interval (0,1). Consequently, beta regression is a convenient tool for analyzing percentage responses. The classical approach to fit a beta regression model is to use maximum likelihood estimation with subsequent AIC-based variable selection. As an alternative to this established - yet unstable - approach, we propose a new estimation technique called boosted beta regression. With boosted beta regression estimation and variable selection can be carried out simultaneously in a highly efficient way. Additionally, both the mean and the variance of a percentage response can be modeled using flexible nonlinear covariate effects. As a consequence, the new method accounts for common problems such as overdispersion and non-binomial variance structures.

Classifying the biological condition of small streams: an example using benthic macroinvertebrates

Abstract The ability to classify the biological condition of unsurveyed streams accurately would be an asset to the conservation and management of streams. We compared the ability of 5 modeling methods (classification and regression trees, conditional inference trees, random forests [RF], conditional random forests [cRF], and ordinal logistic regression) to predict stream biological condition (very poor, poor, fair, or good) based on benthic macroinvertebrate Index of Biotic Integrity data taken from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey. Predictor variables included land use and land cover (e.g., impervious surface, row-crop agriculture, and population density) and landscape measures (annual precipitation and watershed area). We included 1561 sites on small nontidal streams in the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We used 1248 sites (80%) as a training data set to build models and 313 sites (20%) as an independent evaluation data set. RF and cRF models most accurately predicted observed integrity scores in the evaluation data set, but we selected the cRF as the best model because of weaknesses in the RF model (e.g., biased variable selection). Percent impervious surface was the most important variable in the cRF model, and the probability that a site was in very poor or poor biological condition increased rapidly as % impervious cover increased up to 20%. When applied to predict stream biological conditions in all 7908 small nontidal stream reaches in the study area, the cRF model predicted that 33.8% were in fair, 29.9% in good, 22.7% in poor, and 13.6% in very poor biological condition. Our analyses can be used to manage and conserve freshwater and estuarine resources of Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Model predictions for unsurveyed streams can help target field studies to identify high-quality streams deserving of conservation and impaired streams in need of restoration.

Anthropogenic disturbance and landscape patterns affect diversity patterns of aquatic benthic macroinvertebrates

Abstract Measures of species diversity are valuable tools for assessing ecosystem health. However, most assessments have addressed individual sites or regional taxon pools, with few comparisons of differences in assemblage composition within or among regions. We examined the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on local richness (&agr; diversity) and species turnover (&bgr; diversity) of benthic macroinvertebrates in small streams within and between 2 ecoregions (Northern Piedmont vs Southeastern Plains ecoregions) of the Patuxent River basin (Maryland, USA). Regional species pools did not differ between ecoregions (Piedmont  =  166 taxa, Plains  =  162 taxa); however, local richness was lower in the Plains (mean  =  17.4 taxa/stream) compared to the Piedmont (mean  =  22.2 taxa/stream). When streams were categorized into disturbance classes (low, medium, high), local richness did not differ among categories for either region. However, at the entire Patuxent scale, local richness tended to decrease with % impervious cover in a watershed. Variation in species composition, analyzed with nonmetric multidimensional scaling (nMDS), differed significantly between Piedmont and Plains streams, and Plains streams had higher &bgr; diversity than Piedmont streams. When partitioned by disturbance category and region, &bgr; diversity differed only between the low-disturbance sites (Plains > Piedmont). Relationships between &bgr; diversity and environmental variables varied by region. &bgr; diversity was weakly negatively related to % row-crop cover in a watershed at the entire Patuxent scale. For the Piedmont region, &bgr; diversity tended to decrease with % forest, % pasture, and % row-crop cover in a watershed. Such negative relationships between &bgr; diversity and landuse variables indicate a possible homogenization of the assemblage. The incongruence between diversity measures and composition measures, together with differing effects of anthropogenic land use on &bgr; diversity in the 2 regions, emphasizes the need to incorporate both &agr; and &bgr; diversity and regional environmental factors in conservation/land management studies.

Unconventional oil and gas spills: Materials, volumes, and risks to surface waters in four states of the U.S.

Extraction of oil and gas from unconventional sources, such as shale, has dramatically increased over the past ten years, raising the potential for spills or releases of chemicals, waste materials, and oil and gas. We analyzed spill data associated with unconventional wells from Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota and Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2014, where we defined unconventional wells as horizontally drilled into an unconventional formation. We identified materials spilled by state and for each material we summarized frequency, volumes and spill rates. We evaluated the environmental risk of spills by calculating distance to the nearest stream and compared these distances to existing setback regulations. Finally, we summarized relative importance to drinking water in watersheds where spills occurred. Across all four states, we identified 21,300 unconventional wells and 6622 reported spills. The number of horizontal well bores increased sharply beginning in the late 2000s; spill rates also increased for all states except PA where the rate initially increased, reached a maximum in 2009 and then decreased. Wastewater, crude oil, drilling waste, and hydraulic fracturing fluid were the materials most often spilled; spilled volumes of these materials largely ranged from 100 to 10,000L. Across all states, the average distance of spills to a stream was highest in New Mexico (1379m), followed by Colorado (747m), North Dakota (598m) and then Pennsylvania (268m), and 7.0, 13.3, and 20.4% of spills occurred within existing surface water setback regulations of 30.5, 61.0, and 91.4m, respectively. Pennsylvania spills occurred in watersheds with a higher relative importance to drinking water than the other three states. Results from this study can inform risk assessments by providing improved input parameters on volume and rates of materials spilled, and guide regulations and the management policy of spills.

Stream Vulnerability to Widespread and Emergent Stressors: A Focus on Unconventional Oil and Gas.

Multiple stressors threaten stream physical and biological quality, including elevated nutrients and other contaminants, riparian and in-stream habitat degradation and altered natural flow regime. Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is one emerging stressor that spans the U.S. UOG development could alter stream sedimentation, riparian extent and composition, in-stream flow, and water quality. We developed indices to describe the watershed sensitivity and exposure to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and computed a vulnerability index from these two scores across stream catchments in six productive shale plays. We predicted that catchment vulnerability scores would vary across plays due to climatic, geologic and anthropogenic differences. Across-shale averages supported this prediction revealing differences in catchment sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability scores that resulted from different natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For example, semi-arid Western shale play catchments (Mowry, Hilliard, and Bakken) tended to be more sensitive to stressors due to low annual average precipitation and extensive grassland. Catchments in the Barnett and Marcellus-Utica were naturally sensitive from more erosive soils and steeper catchment slopes, but these catchments also experienced areas with greater UOG densities and urbanization. Our analysis suggested Fayetteville and Barnett catchments were vulnerable due to existing anthropogenic exposure. However, all shale plays had catchments that spanned a wide vulnerability gradient. Our results identify vulnerable catchments that can help prioritize stream protection and monitoring efforts. Resource managers can also use these findings to guide local development activities to help reduce possible environmental effects.