Kevin E. Doherty

Greater Sage‐Grouse Population Response to Energy Development and Habitat Loss

Abstract Modification of landscapes due to energy development may alter both habitat use and vital rates of sensitive wildlife species. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana, USA, have experienced rapid, widespread changes to their habitat due to recent coal-bed natural gas (CBNG) development. We analyzed lek-count, habitat, and infrastructure data to assess how CBNG development and other landscape features influenced trends in the numbers of male sage-grouse observed and persistence of leks in the PRB. From 2001 to 2005, the number of males observed on leks in CBNG fields declined more rapidly than leks outside of CBNG. Of leks active in 1997 or later, only 38% of 26 leks in CBNG fields remained active by 2004–2005, compared to 84% of 250 leks outside CBNG fields. By 2005, leks in CBNG fields had 46% fewer males per active lek than leks outside of CBNG. Persistence of 110 leks was positively influenced by the proportion of sagebrush habitat within 6.4 km of the lek. After controlling for habitat, we found support for negative effects of CBNG development within 0.8 km and 3.2 km of the lek and for a time lag between CBNG development and lek disappearance. Current lease stipulations that prohibit development within 0.4 km of sage-grouse leks on federal lands are inadequate to ensure lek persistence and may result in impacts to breeding populations over larger areas. Seasonal restrictions on drilling and construction do not address impacts caused by loss of sagebrush and incursion of infrastructure that can affect populations over long periods of time. Regulatory agencies may need to increase spatial restrictions on development, industry may need to rapidly implement more effective mitigation measures, or both, to reduce impacts of CBNG development on sage-grouse populations in the PRB.

Greater Sage-Grouse Winter Habitat Selection and Energy Development

Abstract Recent energy development has resulted in rapid and large-scale changes to western shrub-steppe ecosystems without a complete understanding of its potential impacts on wildlife populations. We modeled winter habitat use by female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana, USA, to 1) identify landscape features that influenced sage-grouse habitat selection, 2) assess the scale at which selection occurred, 3) spatially depict winter habitat quality in a Geographic Information System, and 4) assess the effect of coal-bed natural gas (CBNG) development on winter habitat selection. We developed a model of winter habitat selection based on 435 aerial relocations of 200 radiomarked female sage-grouse obtained during the winters of 2005 and 2006. Percent sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) cover on the landscape was an important predictor of use by sage-grouse in winter. The strength of habitat selection between sage-grouse and sagebrush was strongest at a 4-km2 scale. Sage-grouse avoided coniferous habitats at a 0.65-km2 scale and riparian areas at a 4-km2 scale. A roughness index showed that sage-grouse selected gentle topography in winter. After controlling for vegetation and topography, the addition of a variable that quantified the density of CBNG wells within 4 km2 improved model fit by 6.66 Akaikes Information Criterion points (Akaike wt = 0.965). The odds ratio for each additional well in a 4-km2 area (0.877; 95% CI = 0.834–0.923) indicated that sage-grouse avoid CBNG development in otherwise suitable winter habitat. Sage-grouse were 1.3 times more likely to occupy sagebrush habitats that lacked CBNG wells within a 4-km2 area, compared to those that had the maximum density of 12.3 wells per 4 km2 allowed on federal lands. We validated the model with 74 locations from 74 radiomarked individuals obtained during the winters of 2004 and 2007. This winter habitat model based on vegetation, topography, and CBNG avoidance was highly predictive (validation R2 = 0.984). Our spatially explicit model can be used to identify areas that provide the best remaining habitat for wintering sage-grouse in the PRB to mitigate impacts of energy development.

Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

Background Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. Methodology/Principal Findings We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area. Conclusions/Significance Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation.

Win-Win for Wind and Wildlife: a Vision to Facilitate Sustainable Development

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ∼7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ∼3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ∼2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation.

Surveying Predicted Rendezvous Sites to Monitor Gray Wolf Populations

Abstract We used rendezvous site locations of wolf (Canis lupus) packs recorded during 1996–2006 to build a predictive model of gray wolf rendezvous site habitat in Idaho, USA. Variables in our best model included green leaf biomass (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), surface roughness, and profile curvature, indicating that wolves consistently used wet meadow complexes for rendezvous sites. We then used this predictive model to stratify habitat and guide survey efforts designed to document wolf pack distribution and fecundity in 4 study areas in Idaho. We detected all 15 wolf packs (32 wolf pack-yr) and 20 out of 27 (74%) litters of pups by surveying <11% of the total study area. In addition, we were able to obtain detailed observations on wolf packs (e.g., hair and scat samples) once we located their rendezvous sites. Given an expected decrease in the ability of managers to maintain radiocollar contact with all of the wolf packs in the northern Rocky Mountains, rendezvous sites predicted by our model can be the starting point and foundation for targeted sampling and future wolf population monitoring surveys.

Population structure and genetic diversity of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in fragmented landscapes at the northern edge of their range

Range-edge dynamics and anthropogenic fragmentation are expected to impact patterns of genetic diversity, and understanding the influence of both factors is important for effective conservation of threatened wildlife species. To examine these factors, we sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) from a declining, fragmented region at the northern periphery of the species’ range and from a stable, contiguous core region. We genotyped 2,519 individuals at 13 microsatellite loci from 104 leks in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana, and Wyoming. Birds from northern Montana, Alberta, and Saskatchewan were identified as a single population that exhibited significant isolation by distance, with the Milk River demarcating two subpopulations. Both subpopulations exhibited high genetic diversity with no evidence that peripheral regions were genetically depauperate or highly structured. However, river valleys and a large agricultural region were significant barriers to dispersal. Leks were also composed primarily of non-kin, rejecting the idea that leks form because of male kin association. Northern Montana sage-grouse are maintaining genetic connectivity in fragmented and northern peripheral habitats via dispersal through and around various forms of fragmentation.

A Currency for Offsetting Energy Development Impacts: Horse-Trading Sage-Grouse on the Open Market

Background Biodiversity offsets provide a mechanism to compensate for unavoidable damages from new energy development as the U.S. increases its domestic production. Proponents argue that offsets provide a partial solution for funding conservation while opponents contend the practice is flawed because offsets are negotiated without the science necessary to backup resulting decisions. Missing in negotiations is a biologically-based currency for estimating sufficiency of offsets and a framework for applying proceeds to maximize conservation benefits. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we quantify a common currency for offsets for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) by estimating number of impacted birds at 4 levels of development commonly permitted. Impacts were indiscernible at 1–12 wells per 32.2 km2. Above this threshold lek losses were 2–5 times greater inside than outside of development and bird abundance at remaining leks declined by −32 to −77%. Findings reiterated the importance of time-lags as evidenced by greater impacts 4 years after initial development. Clustering well locations enabled a few small leks to remain active inside of developments. Conclusions/Significance Documented impacts relative to development intensity can be used to forecast biological trade-offs of newly proposed or ongoing developments, and when drilling is approved, anticipated bird declines form the biological currency for negotiating offsets. Monetary costs for offsets will be determined by true conservation cost to mitigate risks such as sagebrush tillage to other populations of equal or greater number. If this information is blended with landscape level conservation planning, the mitigation hierarchy can be improved by steering planned developments away from conservation priorities, ensuring compensatory mitigation projects deliver a higher return for conservation that equate to an equal number of birds in the highest priority areas, provide on-site mitigation recommendations, and provide a biologically based cost for mitigating unavoidable impacts.

West Nile Virus and Greater Sage-Grouse: Estimating Infection Rate in a Wild Bird Population

Abstract Understanding impacts of disease on wild bird populations requires knowing not only mortality rate following infection, but also the proportion of the population that is infected. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in western North America are known to have a high mortality rate following infection with West Nile virus (WNv), but actual infection rates in wild populations remain unknown. We used rates of WNv-related mortality and seroprevalence from radiomarked females to estimate infection rates in a wild greater sage-grouse population in the Powder River basin (PRB) of Montana and Wyoming from 2003 to 2005. Minimum WNv-related mortality rates ranged from 2.4% to 13.3% among years and maximum possible rates ranged from 8.2% to 28.9%. All live-captured birds in 2003 and 2004 tested seronegative. In spring 2005 and spring 2006, 10.3% and 1.8% respectively, of newly captured females tested seropositive for neutralizing antibodies to WNv. These are the first documented cases of sage-grouse surviving infection with WNv. Low to moderate WNv-related mortality in summer followed by low seroprevalence the following spring in all years indicates that annual infection rates were between 4% and 29%. This suggests that most sage-grouse in the PRB have not yet been exposed and remain susceptible. Impacts of WNv in the PRB in the near future will likely depend more on annual variation in temperature and changes in vector distribution than on the spread of resistance. Until the epizootiology of WNv in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems is better understood, we suggest that management to reduce impacts of WNv focus on eliminating man-made water sources that support breeding mosquitoes known to vector the virus. Our findings also underscore problems with using seroprevalence as a surrogate for infection rate and for identifying competent hosts in highly susceptible species.

West Nile virus and sage‐grouse: What more have we learned?

Abstract West Nile virus (WNv) has emerged as a new issue in the conservation of native avifauna in North America. Mortality associated with WNv infection decreased survival of female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) by 25% across 4 populations in Wyoming and Montana, USA, and Alberta, Canada, in 2003. In 2004 WNv spread to populations in Colorado and California, and female survival in late summer was 10% lower at 4 sites with confirmed WNv mortalities (86% survival) than at 8 sites without (96%). We still have no evidence that sage-grouse show resistance to the virus. The 2004 WNv season was not the catastrophe that many had predicted, and the decrease in prevalence of infection and mortality in sage-grouse, humans, and horses (except in California) has left many wondering if the worst has past. Evidence suggests that risk of infection was low in 2004 because unseasonably cool summer temperatures delayed or reduced mosquito production. Moreover, mortalities occurred 2–3 weeks later in 2004 than in 2003, and the shift to later timing was consistent between years at sites where WNv reduced survival both years. Mosquito surveillance data indicated a sharp decline in prevalence and infection rate of adult C. tarsalis in southeast Alberta, the most northern latitude where WNv reduced survival, in 2003 but not in 2004. A full understanding of the implications of WNv for sage-grouse requires a long-term, coordinated monitoring strategy among researchers and a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the role of WNv in population viability. Epidemiological research examining the prevalence and ecology of the virus among reservoir hosts is crucial.

Linking conservation actions to demography: grass height explains variation in greater sage-grouse nest survival

Conservation success often hinges on our ability to link demography with implementable management actions to influence population growth (&lgr;). Nest success is demonstrated to be important to &lgr; in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, an imperiled species in the North American sagebrush-steppe. Enhancing this vital rate through management represents an opportunity to increase bird numbers inside population strongholds. We identified management for grass height as an action that can improve nest success in an analysis of sage-grouse nests (n = 529) from a long-term study (2003–2007) in the Powder River Basin, southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, USA. Average grass height by study area and year varied (11.4–29.2 cm) but its positive effects on nest survival were consistent among study years and study areas that differed in absolute rates of nest success. We tested the predictive ability of models by grouping output from log-link analyses (2004–2006) into two bins with nest success probabilities < 0.45 and > 0.55, and validated the relationship with additional data from 2003 and 2007. Nests with probabilities > 0.55 were 1.64 (2004–2006) to 3.11 (2007) times more likely to hatch than those < 0.45, except in 2003 when an early wet spring resulted in universally high grass height at nest sites (29.2 cm) and high predicted nest success (64%). The high predictive power of grass height illustrates its utility as a management tool to increase nest success within priority landscapes. Relationships suggest that managing grass height during drought may benefit sage-grouse populations.