Kevin M. Grise

A Global Survey of Static Stability in the Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

Abstract Static stability is a fundamental dynamical quantity that measures the vertical temperature stratification of the atmosphere. However, the magnitude and structure of finescale features in this field are difficult to discern in temperature data with low vertical resolution. In this study, the authors apply more than six years of high vertical resolution global positioning system radio occultation temperature profiles to document the long-term mean structure and variability of the global static stability field in the stratosphere and upper troposphere. The most pronounced feature in the long-term mean static stability field is the well-known transition from low values in the troposphere to high values in the stratosphere. Superposed on this general structure are a series of finer-scale features: a minimum in static stability in the tropical upper troposphere, a broad band of high static stability in the tropical stratosphere, increases in static stability within the core of the stratospheric polar ...

The response of midlatitude jets to increased CO2: Distinguishing the roles of sea surface temperature and direct radiative forcing

In Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation shifts robustly poleward in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, the circulation response to CO2 is largely absent in the zonal mean and is instead characterized by complex regional anomalies. This study decomposes the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing in CMIP5 models into two components: a direct component due to CO2 radiative forcing and an indirect component associated with sea surface temperature (SST)-mediated changes. The direct radiative forcing of CO2 drives a weak poleward jet shift in both hemispheres, whereas the indirect (SST) component of the CO2 forcing dominates the total response and drives a zonally asymmetric response in the NH. Hence, understanding the SST-mediated component of atmospheric CO2 forcing appears crucial to unlocking the mechanisms that contribute to forced extratropical circulation changes.

Southern Hemisphere Cloud–Dynamics Biases in CMIP5 Models and Their Implications for Climate Projections

AbstractThis study quantifies cloud–radiative anomalies associated with interannual variability in the latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet, in 20 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two distinct model types are found. In the first class of models (type I models), total cloud fraction is reduced at SH midlatitudes as the jet moves poleward, contributing to enhanced shortwave radiative warming. In the second class of models (type II models), this dynamically induced cloud radiative warming effect is largely absent. Type I and type II models have distinct deficiencies in their representation of observed Southern Ocean clouds, but comparison with two independent satellite datasets indicates that the cloud–dynamics behavior of type II models is more realistic.Because the SH midlatitude jet shifts poleward in response to CO2 forcing, the cloud–dynamics biases uncovered from interannual variability are directly relevant for cli...

A Mechanism for the Poleward Propagation of Zonal Mean Flow Anomalies

Abstract Observational studies have shown that tropospheric zonal mean flow anomalies frequently undergo quasi-periodic poleward propagation. A set of idealized numerical model runs is examined to investigate the physical mechanism behind this poleward propagation. This study finds that the initiation of the poleward propagation is marked by the formation of negative zonal wind anomalies in the Tropics. These negative anomalies arise from meridional overturning/breaking of waves that originate in midlatitudes. This wave breaking homogenizes the potential vorticity (PV) within the region of negative zonal wind anomalies, and also leads to the formation of positive zonal wind anomalies in the subtropics. Subsequent equatorward radiation of midlatitude waves is halted, which results in wave breaking at the poleward end of the homogenized PV region. This in turn generates new positive and negative zonal wind anomalies, which enables a continuation of the poleward propagation. The shielding of the homogenized ...

Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity? A Southern Hemisphere perspective

This study examines whether the spread in the climate sensitivity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models also captures the spread in the Southern Hemisphere dynamical response to greenhouse gas forcing. Three metrics are proposed to quantify the “dynamical sensitivity” of the Southern Hemisphere: the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone, and the poleward shift of the midlatitude jet. In the CMIP5 abrupt 4 × CO2 integrations, the expansion of the Hadley circulation is well correlated with climate sensitivity in all seasons; in contrast, the shifts in the subtropical dry zone and midlatitude jet are significantly correlated with climate sensitivity only in summer and fall. In winter, those responses are more strongly linked to the control climatology in each model. Thus, a narrow focus on traditional climate sensitivity alone might miss out on important features of the atmospheric circulations response to increasing greenhouse gases, particularly in the extratropics.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability in North American Storm Tracks and Its Relationship to Equatorial Pacific Variability

AbstractExtratropical cyclones play a principal role in wintertime precipitation and severe weather over North America. On average, the greatest number of cyclones track 1) from the lee of the Rocky Mountains eastward across the Great Lakes and 2) over the Gulf Stream along the eastern coastline of North America. However, the cyclone tracks are highly variable within individual winters and between winter seasons. In this study, the authors apply a Lagrangian tracking algorithm to examine variability in extratropical cyclone tracks over North America during winter. A series of methodological criteria is used to isolate cyclone development and decay regions and to account for the elevated topography over western North America. The results confirm the signatures of four climate phenomena in the intraseasonal and interannual variability in North American cyclone tracks: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), and the Madden–Julia...

On the Signatures of Equatorial and Extratropical Wave Forcing in Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures

AbstractTemperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) play an important role in stratosphere–troposphere exchange and in the formation and maintenance of thin cirrus clouds. Many previous studies have examined the contributions of extratropical and equatorial waves to the TTL using coarse-vertical-resolution satellite and reanalysis data. In this study, the authors provide new insight into the role of extratropical and equatorial waves in the TTL using high-vertical-resolution GPS radio occultation data.The results examine the influence of four different wave forcings on the TTL: extratropical waves that propagate vertically into the stratosphere, extratropical waves that propagate meridionally into the subtropical stratosphere, extratropical waves that propagate meridionally into the subtropical troposphere, and the equatorial planetary waves. The vertically and meridionally propagating extratropical stratospheric waves are associated with deep, zonally symmetric temperature anomalies that extend a...

On the Role of Radiative Processes in Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Abstract Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere is associated with substantial changes in the atmospheric circulation that extend to the earth’s surface. The mechanisms that drive the changes in the SH troposphere are not fully understood, but most previous hypotheses have focused on the role of atmospheric dynamics rather than that of radiation. This study quantifies the radiative response of temperatures in the SH polar troposphere to the forcing from long-term temperature and ozone trends in the SH polar stratosphere. A novel methodology is employed that explicitly neglects changes in tropospheric dynamics and hence isolates the component of the tropospheric temperature response that is radiatively driven by the overlying stratospheric trends. The results reveal that both the amplitude and seasonality of the observed cooling of the middle and upper SH polar troposphere over the past few decades are consistent with a reduction in downwelling longwave radiation induced by cooli...

Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity

The atmospheric response to increasing CO2 concentrations is often described in terms of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Yet the response to CO2 forcing in global climate models is not limited to an increase in global-mean surface temperature: for example, the midlatitude jets shift poleward, the Hadley circulation expands, and the subtropical dry zones are altered. These changes, which are referred to here as “dynamical sensitivity,” may be more important in practice than the global-mean surface temperature. This study examines to what degree the intermodel spread in the dynamical sensitivity of 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models is captured by ECS. In the Southern Hemisphere, intermodel differences in the value of ECS explain ~60% of the intermodel variance in the annual-mean Hadley cell expansion but just ~20% of the variance in the annual-mean midlatitude jet response. In the Northern Hemisphere, models with larger values of ECS significantly expand the Hadley circulation more during winter months but contract the Hadley circulation more during summer months. Intermodel differences in ECS provide little significant information about the behavior of the Northern Hemisphere subtropical dry zones or midlatitude jets. The components of dynamical sensitivity correlated with ECS appear to be driven largely by increasing sea surface temperatures, whereas the components of dynamical sensitivity independent of ECS are related in part to changes in surface temperature gradients. These results suggest that efforts to narrow the spread in dynamical sensitivity across global climate models must also consider factors that are independent of global-mean surface temperature.

Midlatitude Cloud Shifts, Their Primary Link to the Hadley Cell, and Their Diverse Radiative Effects

We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983-2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets.