Kim Quaile Hill

The Policy Consequences of Class Bias in State Electorates

This paper tests the proposition that an electorate disproportionately representative of higherclass citizens will be rewarded with public policies in favor of its economic interests and at the expense of the interests of lower-class citizens. We find a consistent negative relationship between the degree of class bias favoring the upper class and the generosity of indigenous state social welfare spending. We also find that it is the underrepresentation of the poor, rather than the overrepresentation of the wealthy, that principally explains this relationship. These findings have important implications for democratic theory generally and for present-day concern about the composition of the U.S. electorate.

The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique

Abstract Focusing on the general issues of reliability and validity, several specific problems evident in reported applications of the Delphi method to forecasting are discussed. Reliability threats, which are noted in a number of procedural aspects of the method, arise from ill-considered procedural variations and lack of standardization. While validity threats are also found in several procedural aspects of the tool, they arise principally from pressures for convergence of predictions. This feature of the method, along with certain structural characteristics, is found to undermine critically its forecasting ability. Having discussed in some detail the nature of these difficulties, the paper closes with consideration of the reasons for the continued use of Delphi in spite of its shortcomings and with comments on alternative approaches.

Dyadic representation reappraised.

Recent research on representational linkages between legislators and their constituents challenges the long-standing assumption that constituency preferences are exogenous to the linkage process but does not clearly suggest the conditions under which a specific pattern of linkage should exist. Drawing on a diverse collection of prior research the authors argue that issues that function as main lines of cleavage between competing political parties should be characterized by reciprocal linkages between mass and elite preferences while highly complex issues on which party distinctions are unclear should be characterized by no linkages between mass and elite. For salient issues on which the public fails to distinguish party positions the authors expect the traditional one-way linkage from mass to elite. The authors test their theoretical expectations with a unique version of the data from the 1958 American Representation Study--and with explicit predictions for which policy issues addressed in that study should demonstrate which particular pattern of mass-elite linkage. The empirical results derived from LISREL analyses for three policy areas are entirely in accord with the authors predictions. (authors)

The Policy Agendas of the President and the Mass Public: A Research Validation and Extension

Research on various forms of mass-elite representational linkage and on public-president links specifically suggests that a reciprocal influence process exists between the attention to policy issues of the mass public and the president. Other research suggests that issue attention for both the president and the public is shaped by real-world cues. Time-series regression analyses of data from State of the Union addresses, Gallup polls, and for various indicators of policy-specific, real-world phenomena are employed to test these propositions and to extend prior research that has assumed presidents influence the public, but not vice versa. For foreign policy and economic policy there is a reciprocal influence process between the president and the mass public. For civil rights policy there is a one-way influence process from presidential to mass attention to the issue. The issue attention of the mass public, but not that of the president, is consistently influenced by realworld cues relevant to the particular policy area.

Racial Diversity, Voter Turnout, and Mobilizing Institutions in the United States:

Race is often identified as uniquely defining and influencing electoral processes in the United States. However, little empirical research has investigated the consequences of racial diversity for levels of voter turnout or for the nature of mobilizing institutions. On the basis of historical analyses of U.S. politics, we hypothesize that greater racial diversity is associated with lower levels of voter mobilization, weaker mobilizing institutions, and higher barriers to voter participation. Cross-sectional models for the 1950s, the 1980s, and the 1990s are tested with ordinary least squares regression techniques, using states as the unit of analysis. We find that racial diversity is a potent negative predictor of turnout levels, in each time period and in non-Southern, as well as Southern, states and that it has an especially strong relationship in presidential elections. Racial diversity is also associated nationwide with weak state and national mobilizing forces, and more difficult voter registration requirements.

Pathways of Representation: A Causal Analysis of Public Opinion-Policy Linkages

Theory: Altemative theories of the linkage process between mass policy preferences and public policies are tested empirically. Hypotheses: Opinion-policy linkage may arise because mass preferences drive the policy process, elite preferences drive the process, or because of a shared-preferences, reciprocal influence process. Policy linkage may also be facilitated by higher voter mobilization and party competition. Methods: A multiple-equation model of the opinion-policy process in the United States is tested with two-stage least squares regression. Results: The state policy process is best explained by an opinion-sharing, reciprocal influence model. Shared partisanship, party competition, and voter mobilization enhance the linkage process in theoretically anticipated ways.

Party Ideology, Organization, and Competitiveness as Mobilizing Forces in Gubernatorial Elections

Using aggregate data on statewide turnout, we examine the relative importance of party ideology, organization, and competitiveness as mobilizing forces in U.S. gubernatorial elections. We find that party competitiveness and ideology are significantly related to turnout, while party organization is not. We also show that the effect of each party attribute is essentially the same in presidential and off-year elections; that party ideology and competitiveness remain significant when controlling for candidate spending; and that the impact of ideology and competition differs depending on the restrictiveness of a states voter registration requirements. Party competition is the only significant mobilizing force in states with more restrictive voter registration laws, while party ideology and candidate campaign spending are mobilizing forces in states with less restrictive registration laws.

Political Parties and Class Mobilization in Contemporary United States Elections

Research on historical and contemporary American party systems suggests how political party and party system attributes are relevant to class-specific mobilization. The more liberal and competitive the Democratic party in a state, the greater the mobilization of lower-class voters. Liberal and competitive Democratic parties will enhance turnout of the lower classes more than that of other classes. The latter relationships will be stronger in off year elections than in presidential elections. Pooled time-series and cross-sectional analyses of turnout are conducted by social class, state, and year for 1978 through 1990. The first two hypotheses about party attributes and class-specific mobilization are strongly supported, but only in presidential election years.

Beyond the Demand-Input Model: A Theory of Representational Linkages

We offer a theory of the direction and nature of representational linkages between constituents and their elected representatives based on two attributes of issues: their complexity and their relationship to the lines of partisan cleavage. We show that the theory is compatible with the existing evidence on representation and then offer results of tests of new predictions from the theory for both simple and complex party-defining issues. For additional evidence of the dyadic basis of these findings, we also show that the strength of the observed linkages varies in accordance with theoretical expectations about the seniority of members of Congress and, for senators, recency of election. We also explain how the theory can account for a number of seemingly contradictory empirical findings in the large literature on policy representation and how it allows scholars to make precise predictions about the characteristics of representational linkages.

The Distribution of Benefits in an Urban Environment Parks and Libraries in Houston

The research reported here examines the neighborhood distribution of park and library services in Houston. The analysis reveals that inequalities in distribution on the basis of race and wealth are dispersed rather than cumulative. The distribution of park acreage and facilities is equal while the location pattern is skewed in the direction of low income neighborhoods. The distribution of library resources favors upper income neighbor hoods, while the spatial distribution of branch libraries advantages black and other low income areas. Distributional decisions are made on the basis of bureaucratic rules and appear to be little affected by explicit racial and socioeconomic criteria. However, these rules may have distributional consequences.