Kiril Tochkov

University efficiency and public funding for higher education in Bulgaria

The recent pressure on public finances in Bulgaria has exposed the need for a performance-based system of public funding for higher education. This article estimates the relative technical and cost efficiency of Bulgarian universities and explores the correlation between public funding and efficiency levels. In particular, a recent government proposal to use university rankings for the allocation of funds is evaluated with regard to efficiency. The results indicate that public universities are less efficient than private institutions, especially in teaching-related aspects. A larger share of the education market, fewer fields of study and more science-related majors result in efficiency gains. Efficiency is not a significant determinant of the amounts of subsidy allocated to a university, while the rankings of efficiency and funding are found to be negatively correlated. However, the rankings to be used under the proposed policy are positively related to cost efficiency, suggesting that the reform effort is a step in the right direction.

Soaring dragons, roaring tigers, growling bears

We perform a comparative analysis of regional growth and convergence in China, Russia and India over the period 1993–2003 by means of non-parametric methods and kernel density estimates. Our results indicate that wealthy regions were largely responsible for the rapid growth in all three countries. For China and India, capital dissipation was identified as the major determinant of regional growth. In Russia, capital deepening impeded positive changes in labour productivity, leaving technological change as the only source of regional growth. Furthermore, we find that the increasing regional income inequality in all three countries was driven by technological change which more than offset the convergence resulting from capital deepening in China and India.

Comparative Advantages in U. S. Bilateral Services Trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-a-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.

Efficiency of Commercial Banks in Bulgaria in the Wake of EU Accession

The paper examines the efficiency of Bulgarian banks and its determinants over the period 1999- 2007. The levels of technical, allocative, and cost efficiency are first estimated using a nonparametric methodology and then regressed upon a number of bank-specific, institutional, and EU-related factors. The findings indicate that foreign banks were more efficient than domestic private banks, although the gap between them narrowed over time. State-owned banks ranked last on average but their privatization resulted in efficiency gains. Capitalization, liquid ity, and enterprise restructuring enhanced bank efficiency, while banking reforms had an adverse effect. The Treaty of Accession and EU membership were associated with significant efficiency improvements.

Relative Inflation Dynamics in the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

Following their EU accession, the new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) must achieve sustainable price stability as one of the pre-conditions for joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and adopting the euro. This paper examines the distribution dynamics of inflation rates in ten EU members from CEE relative to the EMU accession benchmark inflation over the period 1990-2009. In contrast to previous studies, we use non-parametric methods to test for convergence in inflation rates between CEE and the EMU benchmark as well as within the CEE sample. Over the entire sample period, we detect a general shift in the CEE inflation distribution towards the EMU benchmark along with intradistributional convergence. However, this process is not uniform. In the early years, it was equally likely for CEE inflation rates to move towards or away from the benchmark. The resulting multimodal distribution gave way to a unimodal distribution in the years leading up to the EU accession, accompanied by a marked shift towards the EMU benchmark. In more recent years, a bimodal distribution signaled the stratification of relative inflation in CEE into two convergence clubs, which has intensified since the start of the global economic crisis.

The Distribution Dynamics of Income in Central and Eastern Europe relative to the EU: A Nonparametric Analysis

After more than two decades of transition and integration, countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) still exhibit income levels that are significantly lower than the European Union (EU) average. This paper examines convergence in per-capita GDP between CEE and the EU over the period 1990-2012 by employing a combination of parametric and nonparametric methods, which provide more detailed insights than previous studies. The results indicate that the first decade of transition has been marked by divergence from the EU benchmark. In contrast, CEE countries experienced strong convergence over the 2000s, even in the face of the global financial crisis. However, the distribution of relative income evolved from a unimodal to a multimodal one, revealing growing disparities within CEE. Human capital accumulation and progress in economic reforms are identified as the key determinants of convergence, while financial deepening and price instability had a negative effect, especially in the past decade.

Growth Impact of Aid Quantity and Quality in Africa

This chapter employs parametric and nonparametric methods to examine the impact of aid (quantity and quality) on growth in the former British and French colonies of Africa over the period 1975–2010. The quantity of aid is proxied by a quadratic term of the aid variable while the quality, by different source of aid. Results indicate that foreign aid exhibits diminishing returns when a countries’ legal origin is taken into account. Bilateral aid is found to be effective only in the former British colonies, while multilateral aid generates growth regardless of legal origin but only above a certain threshold. Moreover, good governance is shown to stimulate growth and improve aid effectiveness.

Rice Ecosystems and Adoption of Modern Rice Varieties in Odisha, East India: Intensity, Determinants and Policy Implications

ABSTRACT:Odisha is one of the major rice producing states of the eastern region of India. But, the adoption of modern agricultural technologies like modern varieties (MVs) of paddy is still low and skewed across regions and farmer groups in the state even after five decades of inception of green revolution in India. The state has two distinct ecosystems because out of 6.5 million hectares of gross cropped area of the state, 49% is still rainfed and 51% is irrigated. The patterns of adoption of MVs of rice and constraints in adoption process differ in both ecosystems. On this background, the present paper tries to analyze the intensity of adoption of MVs of rice and its determinants in irrigated and rainfed rice ecosystems of the state. The study is based on the primary data at the household level collected by a multistage purposive sampling method. The sample included 300 farm households from six villages of two districts, i.e., Cuttack and Khordha. These two districts represent the irrigated ecosystem and rainfed ecosystem, respectively. The study found that the total study region shows an increasing trend in the adoption intensity with the rise in the size of operational landholding even though the absolute area for large farmer group is the lowest. This positive association is higher in the irrigated region than in the rainfed ecosystem. There is no huge difference in adoption intensity of MVs across the farmer groups in the irrigated region as compared to their counterparts in the rainfed ecosystem. From the tobit model regression results, the study has found a glaring difference between the specific factors influencing the adoption intensity in both ecosystems. Factors like education, farm size, land position, extension visits, credit accessibility, local market, seed availability, perception about taste of MVs and shorter maturity of MVs were significantly influencing the adoption intensity in irrigated ecosystem. But, in the rainfed ecosystem, variables like non-farm activities, soil quality, land position, seed availability, perception on shorter maturity and higher yield of MVs were the significant determinants of adoption intensity. The pooled sample regression results reveal that the ecosystem dummy variable plays a significant role in the adoption decision. Therefore, the study pitches for the development of irrigation facilities along with rigorous implementation of farmer field school program and strengthening of agricultural extension networks.

Regional and Sectoral Patterns and Determinants of Comparative Advantage in China

Chinai¯s export performance is marked by large regional disparities which affect trade patterns at the national level. This paper uses data from input-output tables to estimate the comparative advantage of Chinese provinces in the three main economic sectors over the period 1992¨C2007. In contrast to existing studies, we include the services sector in the analysis and construct not only indices of revealed comparative advantage for overall trade, but also bilateral indices for interprovincial trade. The results indicate that West and Central China have a comparative advantage in agriculture/mining, coastal provinces in manufacturing, and metropolitan provinces in services. However, interprovincial trade exhibits a more complex pattern. Regression analysis identifies labor endowments as the key determinant of comparative advantage in total trade, while physical capital is the driving force in domestic trade. Human capital and government spending have a positive effect, whereas industrial loans and taxes, along with provincial trade barriers, impair comparative advantage.

External debt relief initiatives and economicgrowth in least developed countries

In the late 1990s, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) initiated a series of debt relief programs for highly indebted poor countries (HIPCs) based on the idea that high levels of indebtedness impede growth by discouraging domestic and foreign investment. This paper examines the relationship between external debt and growth with a focus on the effects of multilateral debt relief. In particular, we use a sample of 33 least developed countries (LDCs) over the period 1970-2010 to explore the impact of indebtedness on growth before and after participating in the debt relief initiatives. In contrast to previous studies, we employ a combination of parametric and non-parametric methods to investigate the linear and nonlinear aspects of the debt-growth relationship. In the non-parametric analysis, we model growth as a discreet-time Markov process and estimate the transition probabilities for HIPCs. The results show that lower debt levels stimulate economic growth. The average impact of debt on growth in HIPCs becomes negative at about 64 -78% of GDP depending on the initial growth conditions. In the period after joining the debt relief initiatives, HIPCs generally exhibited a higher chance of moving towards or persisting in the positive range of growth. However, this process was related to lower debt levels mostly in countries that had initially exhibited moderate to rapid growth, while debt relief seems to have been less relevant for future growth in countries that started off in a state of moderate economic decline. Furthermore, the results of the regression analysis show that the marginal effect of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt on growth is negative and significant. Debt relief programs were found to mitigate the negative impact of debt, both after their initiation in 1996 and after the HIPCs reached their decision point. Generally, the overarching policy that can be drawn from this paper is that LDCs, and HIPCs in particular, should strive to reduce their PPG debt levels to at least below 64%-78% of GDP in order to experience and maintain positive growth rates, ceteris paribus. Notwithstanding, our findings also suggest that if HIPCs, and LDCs in general, want to reduce or maintain their debt to sustainable levels, they should adopt some of the conditions imposed by the international financial institutions on HIPCs as part of their macroeconomic policy framework, such as developing and implementing a poverty reduction strategy through a broad based participatory process.