Kirk R. Karwan

An investigation of system design considerations for emergency management decision support

Simulation tests that were carried out to evaluate decision support system design factors in the context of emergency management decision-making are reported. In particular, two basic issues have been examined: the availability of a microcomputer for enhancing data display during an emergency: and the stage or severity of the emergency. The exercise involved the response to a nuclear generating facility accident, a situation that typically would require various inputs from public officials to protect the local community from potential radiation exposure. The results of the experiment indicate: clear support for computerization of emergency management decision support systems; and an apparent need to focus attention on further development of these systems to improve the decision-making capabilities of public managers during the later, less-structured stages of an emergency.

The development of a disaster management support system through prototyping

Abstract The authors discuss the development of a disaster management decision support system through the use of a prototyping strategy. The system was designed to aid a Regional Emergency Medical Organization in establishing an effective means of dealing with multiple casualty emergencies. Prototyping proved to be an appropriate development approach, promoting a high level of user involvement and interest in a setting where tasks were somewhat ill-structured and the problem and associated decision rules not well understood. The authors conjecture that their approach will work well in the development of similar systems for other crisis on disaster managers. The limitations of the study are also discussed.

A Comparative Evaluation of Conjoint Measurement and Goal Programming as Aids in Decision Making for Marine Environmental Protection

This paper compares the use of two MCDM methods — goal programming in an extended form and direct utility assessment via conjoint measurement — for determining solutions to a resource allocation problem confronted by the U. S. Coast Guard’s Marine Environmental Protection Program. The problem is discussed, solutions generated and an analysis is then presented to explain why the goal programming method appears to have been more attractive to Coast Guard decision makers.

Can We Manage Natural Hazards?@@@Evacuation Planning in Emergency Management@@@Social Science and Natural Nazards@@@Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy: Anticipating the Unexpected

I. Anticipating the Unexpected as a Focus of Public Policy.- 1. Natural Hazards as Public Policy Problems.- Natural Hazards as Candidate Problems.- Characteristics of the Public Policy System.- Overview of Policy Assisting Study Approaches.- An Integrative Model.- Conclusion.- References.- 2. Natural Hazards Characteristics and Mitigations.- Earthquake.- Landslides.- Expansive Soil.- Riverine Flooding.- Storm Surge.- Tsunami.- Tornado.- Hurricane.- Severe Wind.- Mitigation Strategies.- Mitigation Strategies in Developing Countries.- References.- 3. Public Policy Approaches to Management of Natural Hazards.- The Matrix of Policy Authority.- Types of Hazard-Related Public Policies.- U.S. Federal Natural Hazard Policies and Programs.- State Land Use Policies.- State Coastal Zone Regulations.- Building Code Policy and Authority.- International Differences in Public Policies toward Natural Hazards.- Conclusion.- References.- II. Natural Hazards Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis.- 4. Methodologies for Hazard Analysis.- Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards.- Hazard-Exposure - Vulnerability Estimation.- Cost Analysis Methods.- Mitigation Cost Estimates.- Cost Feasibility Analysis.- Analysis of Social Impacts.- Conclusion.- References.- 5. Natural Hazard Exposure and Loss Analysis.- Natural Hazard Effects.- Natural Hazard Loss Analysis (1970-2000).- Referent Effects and Problems.- Cost Escalations in Catastrophic Losses.- Federal Liability for Natural Hazard Losses.- Interstate Tax Transfers Produced by Federal Liability for Natural Hazard Losses.- Interstate Tax Transfers Produced by Other Federal Policies.- Conclusion.- References.- 6. Natural Hazard Mitigation Costs and Impacts.- Estimate of Losses for Year.- Alternative Mitigation Strategies.- Loss Reduction Analysis.- Cost Analysis.- Economic Payoffs from Major Mitigation Groups.- Social Payoffs from Major Mitigation Groups.- Conclusion.- References.- 7. Catastrophic Natural Hazard Occurrences.- Approach to Scenario Development.- Camille II.- San Francisco Earthquake II.- Other Scenarios.- References.- III. Natural Hazards Policy Planning and Administration.- 8. Policy Makers, Stakeholders, and Candidate Public Problems.- The Plight of the Policy Maker.- Stakeholders in Natural Hazard Policy.- Candidate Public Problems.- Establishing Priorities.- Federal Role.- Conclusion.- References.- 9. Constraints on Public Hazards Management Policy Making.- Legal Constraints.- Sociopolitical Constraints.- Value Constraints.- Administrative Constraints.- Economic Constraints.- Federal Constraints on State and Local Decision Making.- Conclusion.- References.- 10. Public Policy Alternatives.- The Policy Options.- The Policy Plan.- Action Possibilities for the Federal Government.- Action Possibilities for State Governments.- Action Possibilities for Local Units of Government.- Action Possibilities for Private Entities.- The Problem of Future Policy Making.- References.

Financial planning for savings and loan institutions—A new challenge

The savings and loan (S&L) industry has survived the fast wave of adverse conditions that confronted all fmancial institutions in the 1980s. S&L managers are now faced with the task of how to function best under the continuing deregulation of their industry. This paper presents a dynamic b&objective linear programming model intended to aid managers in making appropriate balance sheet decisions. The recent major changes in the network of regulations that affect S&L operations are incorporated into the model and discussed. Various uses of this approach are also suggested.

Who cleans up the oil? A microeconomic study

Abstract Although oil spill cleanup requirements have existed in the United States for years, recent increases in oil imports and marine transportation of petroleum products as well as growing environmental concern have exposed a new industry, the Oil Spill Cleanup Industry. This paper explores some of the microeconomic aspects of this industry which has come under increased scrutiny by the general public, big business, and the federal government. In addition to a brief history and definition, several basic questions about the economic viability of the oil spill cleanup industry are raised and explored, and the impact on the industry of cleanup from government sources is examined, both from the perspective of present operations and from apparent future increases in federal participation. The primary dilemma facing the industry, that of providing continued and immediate supply while confronted with stochastic demand, is discussed. The effects of the large spill on the industry both in terms of revenue and ability to meet cleanup requirements is also considered. Information for the paper is drawn from past and continuing involvement in the U.S. Coast Guards Marine Environmental Protection Program by both authors. The statistical evidence presented here was compiled through personal interviews and from two computerized Coast Guard information systems; PIRS (the Pollution Incident Reporting System), and SKIM (the Spill Cleanup Equipment Inventory System).

Assessing the effectiveness of a Marine Environmental Protection Program

Abstract The Marine Environmental Protection (MEP) Program of the United States Coast Guard has a responsibility for improving the quality of our oceans and waterways. This paper describes the analytical construct developed for measuring the effectiveness of the programs activities. It discusses how the overall objective was translated into subobjectives, called program elements. Measures of the resources utilized by the program, the activities performed, and the results of those activities are presented. The applicability of regression analysis in relating the resources utilized to performance measures on the program elements is discussed and evaluated in the light of the multi-mission nature of Coast Guard activities.

PREVENTION OF POLLUTION DURING OIL TRANSFER OPERATIONS: AN EVALUATION OF USCG PREVENTIVE ACTIONS

Durings its journey from a production facility to a refinery, the most probable time for oil to enter the water is during vessel cargo-transfer operations. This paper describes the origins, implementation, and effects of the U.S. Coast Guards operational and regulatory program designd to prevent oil transfer-related discharges. Statistical data from the USCG Pollution Incident Reporting System (PIRS) is used to measure the effectiveness of these actions. A review is presented of the results of an on-scene transfer monitoring program conducted in 1972 in Seattle, Washington. Coast Guard pollution prevention regulations and the present nationwide transfer operations monitoring program is presented. The paper concludes that the Coast Guard preventive program has had a measurable effect on the incidence of transfer-related pollution incidents.