Kirstin Dow

Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders

This article examines the evacuation behavior of residents in two South Carolina communities, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, during the 1996 hurricane season. Two hurricanes that approached South Carolina but hit in North Carolina allowed us to study the impact of repeated “false alarms”; (evacuations ordered based on expectations of a hurricane landfall that proved to be wrong). Differences in evacuation behavior, specific information and concerns prompting evacuation, and the reliability of information sources between hurricane events are examined to determine the impact of false alarms on the credibility of warning systems. Data were derived from a face‐to‐face survey of residents 2 weeks after Hurricane Fran in September 1996. We found that the role of official advisories was more limited than reported in previous research as people sought information on more diverse sets of concerns in their decision making. Reliance on the media and the Weather Channel, in particular, for storm characteristics and ad...

ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES TO EXTREME STORMS: THE CASE OF REVERE, MA., USA

Climate change may affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of severe coastal storms. Concurrent sea-level rise would raise the baseline of flooding during such events. Meanwhile, social vulnerability factors such as poverty and disability hinder the ability to cope with storms and storm damage. While physical changes are likely to remain scientifically uncertain into the foreseeable future, the ability to mitigate potential impacts from coastal flooding may be fostered by better understanding the interplay of social and physical factors that produce human vulnerability. This study does so by integrating the classic causal model of hazards with social, environmental, and spatial dynamics that lead to the differential ability of people to cope with hazards. It uses Census data, factor analysis, data envelopment analysis, and floodplain maps to understand the compound social and physical vulnerability of coastal residents in the city of Revere, MA, USA.

Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment

This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This ‘‘hurricane savvy’’ population depends more heavily on individuals’ assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures. r 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits

Since the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), demand for knowledge regarding the planning and implementation of adaptation as a strategy for climate risk management has increased significantly (Preston et al., 2011a; Park et al., 2012). This chapter assesses recent literature on the opportunities that create enabling conditions for adaptation as well as the ancillary benefits that may arise from adaptive responses. It also assesses the literature on biophysical and socioeconomic constraints on adaptation and the potential for such constraints to pose limits to adaptation. Given the available evidence of observed and anticipated limits to adaptation, the chapter also discusses the ethical implications of adaptation limits and the literature on system transformational adaptation as a response to adaptation limits. To facilitate this assessment, this chapter provides an explicit framework for conceptualizing opportunities, constraints, and limits (Section 16.2). In this framework, the core concepts including definitions of adaptation, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity are consistent with those used previously in the AR4 (Adger et al., 2007). However, the material in this chapter should be considered in conjunction with that of complementary WGII AR5 chapters. These include Chapter 14 (Adaptation Needs and Options), Chapter 15 (Adaptation Planning and Implementation), and Chapter 17 (Economics of Adaptation). Material from other WGII AR5 chapters is also relevant to informing adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits, particularly Chapter 2 (Foundations for Decision Making) and Chapter 19 (Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities). This chapter also synthesizes relevant material from each of the sectoral and regional chapters (Section 16.5). To enhance its policy relevance, this chapter takes as its entry point the perspective of actors as they consider adaptation response strategies over near, medium, and longer terms (Eisenack and Stecker, 2012; Dow et al., 2013a,b). Actors may be individuals, communities, organizations, corporations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), governmental agencies, or other entities responding to real or perceived climate-related stresses or opportunities as they pursue their objectives (Patt and Schroter, 2008; Blennow and Persson, 2009; Frank et al., 2011).

Social dimensions of gradients in urban ecosystems

Urban ecosystems are complex mosaics in which the biophysical characteristics are transformed over time by a concentrated, diverse set of human activities. Understanding their complexity requires the continuing development of interdisciplinary approaches. The use of gradient approaches has pointed towards the need to examine in greater detail the roles of human influences. In this paper, I propose the addition of three social dimensions to characteristics defining urban gradients: landuse, land management effort, and historical context. These dimensions correspond with major types of social activities that modify the physical environment. They are intended to augment research by explicitly elaborating on the social factors contributing to the variation along the complex, indirect gradients that typify urban areas.The diversity of urban landuses has numerous influences, obvious and subtle, on the complex urban land gradients. Incorporating new information on historical and spatial characteristics of management practices supports more direct fine-scale analyses of the impact of human activities on the environment. This path of inquiry also requires engaging in more detailed research on historical dimensions of urban development in conjunction with biophysical analyses. Examples from Columbia, South Carolina, illustrate the ways that social and historical processes contribute to urban ecology.

Feeling at risk matters: water managers and the decision to use forecasts.

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.

SUBSIDIZED INEQUITIES: THE SPATIAL PATTERNING OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED HOUSING

This paper examines the relationship between the location of environmental risks and federally assisted public housing (Housing and Urban Development [HUD] Section 8) in a sample of eight medium-sized United States metropolitan areas. Using four U.S. Environmental Protection Agency databases, locational and potential risk exposure surfaces were constructed for each study area using a GIS-based methodology. Families living in HUD housing had a greater risk potential from hazardous facilities based on proximity and the reported releases from them. Minority populations (defined as percentage non-White) had significantly greater locational exposure than nonminority populations in all but one metropolitan area, Albuquerque. Minority populations also had higher risk burdens than nonminority residents. The historical evolution of the patterns of social and industrial change illustrates the unique localized processes of residential and industrial development. Explanations based solely on race and income show little consistency in cause and effect through time, but there is some emerging evidence that industrial host tracts are becoming poorer and home to more minority residents in at least half of our cities. [Key words: environmental justice, HUD housing, GIS.]

The role of ad hoc networks in supporting climate change adaptation: a case study from the Southeastern United States

To examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, this article explores five climate-sensitive sectors in North and South Carolina (Forestry, Government Administration, Tourism, Water Management, and Wildlife Management) and the role of partnerships, collaborations, and networks in facilitating climate adaptation and related activities. Drawing from 117 online questionnaires and interviews with sector leaders across the Carolinas, the article highlights several key functions of networks in regard to supporting adaptation—intra-sector information sharing; monitoring, data collection, and research; and education and outreach. Furthermore, the analysis examines how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra- and cross-sector collaboration. Although no formal, or discrete, state or regional cross-sector climate change network exists in the Carolinas, climate adaptations and capacity-building efforts have been supported by ad hoc and decentralized networks, emerging collegial partnerships within and across sectors, and collaborative efforts to pool expertise and resources. The role of different forms of social capital within these networks is discussed in the context of a contentious political environment where support for activities designed to address climate change is limited. These findings enhance our understanding of the social factors and relational processes that shape and influence capacity to adapt to climate change.

What Stakeholder Needs Tell Us about Enabling Adaptive Capacity: The Intersection of Context and Information Provision across Regions in the United States

In recent years increasing attention has been focused on understanding the different resources that can support decision makers at all levels in responding to climate variability and change. This article focuses on the role that access to information and other potential constraints may play in the context of water decision making across three U.S. regions (the Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the Carolinas). The authors report on the degree to which climate-related needs or constraints pertinent to water resources are regionally specific. They also find that stakeholder-identified constraints or needs extended beyond the need for data/information to enabling factors such as governance arrangements and how to improve collaboration and communication. As climate information networks expand and emphasis is placed on encouraging adaptation more broadly, these constraints have implications not only for how information dissemination efforts are organized but for how those efforts need to be informed by the larger regional context in a resource-limited and fragmented landscape.

Chapter 8 Hazard Perception and Geography

Publisher Summary This chapter deals with the hazard perception and geography. Perception plays a central role in explaining how risk, uncertainty, and values enter into the ways by which societies and individuals debate and cope with existing natural hazards and the introduction of new hazards associated with technological change. It reviews the current state of understanding, highlights key geographical contributions, assesses the broadening of perception research that is in process, and explores prospects for a more integrative understanding. One of the remarkable features of the intellectual history of hazard analysis is the large proportion of all research devoted to understanding how individuals and various groups evaluate and respond to the hazards of nature and technology. In addition, from initial geographical and psychological studies of hazard, much became known of human perception of a wide range of natural hazards. More recent efforts have extended the analysis from natural to technological hazards, from choice-centered to constraint-centered analyses, from cognitive psychology to anthropology and political science, and from disciplinary to more integrative perspectives. Meanwhile, the long-existing concern in geography to understand how human societies behave in their encounters with diverse physical and cultural environments with sensitive appreciation for the rich fabric of social meaning and complex of hazards at particular regions and places remains an enduring goal.