Kjell Stordahl

Forecasting long-term demand for services in the residential market

The TITAN tool makes possible the examination of alternative implementation strategies for advanced services in the access network, relying on component cost trends and forecasts of demand for services to evaluate the overall economic viability of new networks for advanced service delivery. >

Risk analysis of residential broadband upgrade in a competitive and changing market

The article presents risk and techno-economic analyses of broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts and market shares are analyzed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modem, hybrid fiber coax networks, and ATM-based passive optical networks.

Broadband access network competition-analysis of technology and market risks

The paper shows how risk methodology developed in the European projects TITAN (Tool for Introduction strategies and Techno-economic evaluation of Access Network) and OPTIMUM (Optimised Network Architectures for multimedia Services) can be applied for evaluation of Various broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators (PNOs) and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts, market shares and cost predictions are analysed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modems, hybrid fibre coax networks and ATM-based passive optical networks. The results show that the uncertainty in the few market parameters contribute relatively more to the uncertainty in the final economic evaluation than the uncertainty in the large number of cost components.

Overview of risks in multimedia broadband upgrades

The paper gives an overview of the risks connected to a roll out of a broadband infrastructure. Specific attention is put on market risk, competition risk, regulatory risk, technology risk and operational risk. The risk methodology developed in the ACTS projects OPTIMUM and TERA is described. The paper shows how the risk methodology can be applied for evaluation of various network architectures. The paper also presents risk and techno-economic analyses of broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts and market shares are analysed.

Risk Methodology for Multimedia Projects Assessments

The paper describes a methodology for performing quantitative risk analysis of multimedia projects, as developed in the ACTS projects OPTIMUM and TERA. A framework for risk analysis is presented, encompassing key elements such as choice of probability density functions, correlation between important variables, simulation performance, methodology for cost predictions, demand forecasts, tariff predictions and associated uncertainties. The TERA tool for techno-economic evaluation is presented and the important steps in network evaluation identified. The paper examines how much the most critical factors contribute to the overall risk profile of telecommunications operator projects and studies the dependencies between variables.

Broadband forecasting models for content services

This paper addresses the evolution of new and enhanced broadband services based on a top down approach. The idea is to identify future potentials for spending on telecommunications, especially in the residential sector which is the dominating part of the broadband market today. Household spending data for a sample of Western European countries has been collected, segmented and analyzed, based on the United Nations COICOP classification. Parts of household spending on categories like entertainment, social and cultural activities are expected to be activated, in the long run, by the usage of broadband services, becoming a source of revenues for service and network providers. These new broadband services generate more traffic in the NGN than traditional browsing and surfing. Substantial additional traffic will also be generated by new usages of various services, not only by substitution effects. A framework for forecasting future telecommunication usage and revenues is described and illustrated with concrete examples

Risk analysis of residential broadband upgrade based on market evolution and competition

The paper presents risk and techno-economic analyses of broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts and market shares are analysed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modems, hybrid fibre coax networks and ATM-based passive optical networks.