Norihiro Itsubo

Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: findings of the scoping phase

Olivier Jolliet & Rolf Frischknecht & Jane Bare & Anne-Marie Boulay & Cecile Bulle & Peter Fantke & Shabbir Gheewala & Michael Hauschild & Norihiro Itsubo & Manuele Margni & Thomas E. McKone & Llorenc Mila y Canals & Leo Postuma & Valentina Prado-Lopez & Brad Ridoutt & Guido Sonnemann & Ralph K. Rosenbaum & Tom Seager & Jaap Struijs & Rosalie van Zelm & Bruce Vigon & Annie Weisbrod & with contributions of the other workshop participants

Consensus building on the development of a stress-based indicator for LCA-based impact assessment of water consumption: outcome of the expert workshops

PurposeThe WULCA group, active since 2007 on Water Use in LCA, commenced the development of consensus-based indicators in January 2014. This activity is planned to last 2xa0years and covers human health, ecosystem quality, and a stress-based indicator. This latter encompasses potential deprivation of both ecosystem and human, hence aiming to represent potential impacts more comprehensively than any other available LCA-oriented method assessing the “water scarcity footprint” (ISO 2014).MethodsA series of three expert workshops, including non-LCA experts from hydrology, eco-hydrology, and water supply science, was organized specifically on the topic of this generic midpoint indicator. They were held in Zurich on 10th September, in San Francisco on 5th October and in Tsukuba on 27th October 2014. In total 49 experts attended. The specific objectives of the workshops were twofold. First, it was to present the identified options of the stress-based indicator narrowed down by the active members of WULCA during the first 8xa0months of the project and to receive comments on the relevance, usefulness, acceptability, and focus of the selected indicator. Second, the workshop covered different challenges in the modeling of the indicator and presented the experts with background information and specific questions. This paper summarizes the discussions and outcome of these workshops. Where no agreement was reached, the working group of active members is considering all inputs received and continues the work.Results and discussionThe discussion covered first the question to be answered by such indicator, resulting on an agreement on the evaluation of the potential to deprive other users of water, independently of who the user is (i.e., human or ecosystems). Special attention was given to the special case of arid areas as well as the definition of environmental water requirements. Specific modeling challenges were then addressed: definition and quantification of human and ecosystem water demand, consideration of green water and terrestrial ecosystems, sources of data, distinction of groundwater and surface water, and temporal and geographical resolution.ConclusionsThe input, decisions, and points of discussion were compiled and brought back within the group of active members. The group is using the recommendations and works further on the harmonization of the points of disagreement. It is expected that a selection of indicators representing different ways to address the most important issues will be produced and tested in spring 2015. The analysis of the result should lead to a provisional recommendation by summer 2015.

Statistical analysis for the development of national average weighting factors—visualization of the variability between each individual’s environmental thoughts

PurposeWeighting is one of the steps involved in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). This enables us to integrate various environmental impacts and facilitates the interpretation of environmental information. Many different weighting methodologies have already been proposed, and the results of many case studies with a single index have been published. However, a number of problems still remain. Weighting factors should be based on the preferences of society as a whole so that the life cycle assessment (LCA) practitioner can successfully apply them to every product and service. However, most existing studies do not really measure national averages but only the average of the responses obtained from the people actually sampled. Measuring the degree of uncertainty in LCIA factors is, therefore, one of the most important issues in current LCIA research, and some advanced LCIA methods have tried to deal with the problem of uncertainty. However, few weighting methods take into account the variability between each individual’s environmental thoughts. LIME2, the updated version of life cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME), has been developed as part of the second LCA national project of Japan. One of the aims of LIME2 is to develop new weighting factors which fulfill the following requirements: (1) to accurately represent the environmental attitudes of the Japanese public, (2) to measure the variability between each individual’s environmental thoughts and reflect them in the choice of suitable weighting factors.MethodsThis study adopted the technique of conjoint analysis, which is currently the most advanced methodology available in the field of environmental economics. Using a random sampling process, 1,000 individual responses were collected. Every response was based on an interview survey designed to minimize bias. We used a random parameter logit model to estimate the preferences of society. Statistical values based on this model can be considered to reflect the variability between each individual’s environmental thoughts. The calculated results can then be used to develop integration factors in LIME2, enabling us to express LCIA results as a single index, such as external cost.Results and discussionThe calculated values were significant statistically at the 1% level (all p values for the safeguard subject coefficients were less than 0.0001), with the exception of “social assets.” Based on the calculated results, two types of weighting factor, an economic valuation and a dimensionless index, were obtained. A relative comparison of importance among these four categories indicates that “biodiversity” receives the highest level of recognition, followed by “human health” and “primary production,” while the weight of “social assets” rate lower than the other safeguard subjects, in comparison. Using the calculated results produced by the RPL model, the probability density of the variables for individual preferences could then be derived and displayed. The coefficients of variance for the estimated weighting factors were relatively small (in the range from 0.1 to 0.3).ConclusionsAccurate weighting factors representing the environmental attitudes of the Japanese public are needed in order to conduct general-purpose LCA for Japanese products. Random, unbiased sampling throughout Japan and an interview survey carried out on 1,000 respondents enabled us to address and solve the problems found with past weighting methodologies. We confirmed that the results of comparisons carried out among safeguard subjects were statistically significant, and showed that the contents of the questionnaires were well understood by the respondents. This study succeeded in visualizing the variability between each individual’s environmental thoughts in order to improve the transparency of the weighting factors—expressing the difference in individual preferences within a certain range. This data can be used to develop integration factors with statistical values which can then be applied to uncertainty analysis in future LCA case studies.

Consistent characterisation factors at midpoint and endpoint relevant to agricultural water scarcity arising from freshwater consumption

PurposeThe shortage of agricultural water from freshwater sources is a growing concern because of the relatively large amounts needed to sustain food production for an increasing population. In this context, an impact assessment methodology is indispensable for the identification and assessment of the potential consequences of freshwater consumption in relation to agricultural water scarcity. This paper reports on the consistent development of midpoint and endpoint characterisation factors (CFs) for assessing these impacts.MethodsMidpoint characterisation factors focus specifically on shortages in food production resulting from agricultural water scarcity. These were calculated by incorporating country-specific compensation factors for physical availability of water resources and socio-economic capacity in relation to the irrigation water demand for agriculture. At the endpoint, to reflect the more complex impact pathways from food production losses to malnutrition damage from agricultural water scarcity, international food trade relationships and economic adaptation capacity were integrated in the modelling with measures of nutritional vulnerability for each country.Results and discussionThe inter-country variances of CFs at the midpoint revealed by this study were larger than those derived using previously developed methods, which did not integrate compensation processes by food stocks. At the endpoint level, both national and trade-induced damage through international trade were quantified and visualised. Distribution of malnutrition damage was also determined by production and trade balances for commodity groups in water-consuming countries, as well as dependency on import ratios for importer countries and economic adaptation capacity in each country. By incorporating the complex relationships between these factors, estimated malnutrition damage due to freshwater consumption at the country scale showed good correlation with total reported nutritional deficiency damage.ConclusionsThe model allows the establishment of consistent CFs at the midpoint and endpoint for agricultural water scarcity resulting from freshwater consumption. The complex relationships between food production supply and nutrition damage can be described by considering the physical and socio-economic parameters used in this study. Developed CFs contribute to a better assessment of the potential impacts associated with freshwater consumption in global supply chains and to life cycle assessment and water footprint assessments.

The LCA of portland cement production in China

PurposeCement production is associated with a considerable environmental load, which needs to be fully understood before effective measures can be taken. The existing literature did not give detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) study of China and had limited potential for investigating how best available techniques (BATs) would provide a maximum benefit when they are applied in China. Japan was selected as a good example to achieve better environmental performance of cement production. We identified potentials for reducing emissions and saving energy and natural resources in Chinese cement industry through the comparative analysis.MethodsThis paper follows the principal of Life Cycle Assessment and International Reference Life Cycle Data System (ILCD). The functional units are “1xa0t of portland cement” and with 42.5xa0MPa of strength grade. The input (limestone, sandstone, ferrous tailings, coal, and electricity) and output (CO2 from limestone decomposition and coal combustion, NOx, PM, and SO2) of cement manufacturing were calculated by use of on-site measurements, calculation by estimated coefficients, and derivation by mass and heat balance principle. The direct (cement manufacturing) and indirect (electricity production) LCI are added to be total LCI results (cement production). The impact categories of global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), photochemical oxidant formation potential (POCP), and human toxicity potential (HTP) are used to calculate environmental impact.Results and discussionOnly in GWP of cement manufacturing China has advantage. Japanese cement industry shows remarkable superiorities in the environmental impacts of AP, POCP, HTP, and EP due to advanced technologies. SO2 emissions make the corresponding AP and HTP. PM emissions result in part of HTP. The NOx emissions are the major contributors of POCP, AP, EP, and HTP in China. China emits fewer CO2 emissions (2.09xa0%) in cement manufacturing than Japan but finally makes higher total GWP than Japan due to more GWP of electricity generation in power stations. The waste heat recovery technology can save electricity but bring more coal use and CO2 emissions. The alternative fuel and raw materials usage and denitration and de-dust technologies can relieve the environmental load. Using the functional unit with the strength grade, the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results are affected.ConclusionsLCA study allows a clear understanding from the view of total environmental impact rather than by the gross domestic product (GDP) unit from an economic development perspective. In an LCA study, the power generation should be considered in the life cycle of cement production.

Development of human health damage factors for PM2.5 based on a global chemical transport model

PurposeHealth damage from ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) shows large regional variations and can have an impact on a global scale due to its transboundary movement. However, existing damage factors (DFs) for human health in life cycle assessments (LCA) are calculated only for a few limited regions based on various regional chemical transport models (CTMs). The aim of this research is to estimate the human health DFs of PM2.5 originating from ten different regions of the world by using one global CTM.MethodsThe DFs express changes in worldwide disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to unit emission of black carbon and organic carbon (BCOC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). DFs for ten regions were calculated as follows. Firstly, we divided the whole world into ten regions. With a global CTM (MIROC-ESM-CHEM), we estimated the concentration change of PM2.5 on the world caused by changes in the emission of a targeted precursor substance from a specific region. Secondly, we used population data and epidemiological concentration response functions (CRFs) of mortality and morbidity to estimate changes in the word’s DALYs occurring due to changes in the concentration of PM2.5. Finally, the above calculations were done for all ten regions.Results and discussionDFs of BCOC, NOx, and SO2 for ten regions were estimated. The range of DFs could be up to one order of magnitude among the ten regions in each of the target substances. While population density was an important parameter, variation in transport of PM2.5 on a continental level occurring due to different emission regions was found to have a significant influence on DFs. Especially for regions of Europe, Russia, and the Middle East, the amount of damage which occurred outside of the emitted region was estimated at a quarter, a quarter, and a third of their DFs, respectively. It was disclosed that the DFs will be underestimated if the transboundary of PM2.5 is not taken into account in those regions.ConclusionsThe human health damage factors of PM2.5 produced by BCOC, NOx, and SO2 are estimated for ten regions by using one global chemical transport model. It became clear that the variation of transport for PM2.5 on a continental level greatly influences the regionality in DFs. For further research to quantify regional differences, it is important to consider the regional values of concentration response function (CRF) and DALY loss per case of disease or death.

Development of weighting factors for G20 countries—explore the difference in environmental awareness between developed and emerging countries

PurposeWeighting is one of the steps involved in LCIA. This enables us to integrate various environmental impacts and facilitates the interpretation of environmental information. Many different weighting methodologies have already been proposed, and the results of many case studies with a single index have been published. LIME2 (Itsubo et al. Int J Life Cycle Assess 17(4):488-498, 2012) developed weighting factors for four different areas of protection that reflect environmental awareness among the Japanese public. This method has already been widely used in Japan, but difficulties exist universally using the Japanese weighting factors around the world. It is presumed that the weighting varies depending on economic, cultural, and social conditions, and there are still few cases in which weighting factors have been specifically invented or studied in consideration of variance in these elements. This study attempted to develop weighting factors applicable to the Group of Twenty (G20) countries with a view toward developing those that could be used in different countries. In the study, a survey was conducted with a uniform questionnaire in G20 countries to compare the weighting factors calculated for different countries, along with an investigation on development and utilization of global weighting factors.MethodsA conjoint analysis was conducted to give a weighting between the four areas of protection defined by LIME: human health, social assets, biodiversity, and primary production. The analysis is suitable for measuring the value of each of the multiple attributes of the environment. This study conducted a questionnaire in all the G20 member states. The survey puts priority on making the questions understood by the respondents and minimizing bias, adopting interviews, visiting surveys, and surveys in venues in the 11 emerging countries. In the developed countries, Internet surveys were conducted after confirming that their results are statistically significant from the pretest results in these states. In both surveys, random sampling was performed to take 200–250 samples (households) in each of the emerging countries and 500–600 samples in each of the developed countries. The surveys collected a total of 6400 responses. Statistical values based on this model can be considered to reflect the variability between each individual’s environmental thoughts. The calculated results can then be used to compare the variety of environmental thoughts in developed and emerging countries.Results and discussionThe study was able to obtain two different kinds of results: dimensionless weighting factors and economic indicators using the amount of willingness to pay. This paper solely presents the former. The weighting factors in the entire G20 community, in the group of developed countries (G8) and in the group of emerging countries (G20 states excluding the G8) and those in the individual G20 countries, were estimated. The calculated values were significant statistically at the 1xa0% level (all p values for the safeguard subject coefficients were less than 0.0001), with the exception of monetary attributes for several emerging countries. Converted into dimensionless values, so that the total sum for the four subjects equals 1, the weighting factor was the highest for human health in the entire G20 circles, at 0.34, followed by biodiversity at 0.29, and primary production at 0.23. The weighting for social assets was relatively poor, at 0.13. In the G8 developed states, the figures of biodiversity and primary production were relatively higher than those of the same two subjects in the full G20. Biodiversity had the highest value, at 0.34, and was followed by human health at 0.30. On the other hand, in emerging countries, the weighting of health impacts was particularly significant, at 0.44, whereas the three other subjects had almost equivalent weightings—biodiversity at 0.19, social assets at 0.18, and primary product at 0.18. The weighting factors by country and the variance of preference intensities by country showed minor differences among developed countries while they reflected considerable differences among emerging countries.ConclusionsAccurate weighting factors representing the environmental attitudes of the world and national public are needed in order to conduct general purpose LCA. This study is the world’s first to conduct surveys with the use of the same questionnaire not only in developed countries but also in emerging countries, and to compare the findings. A total of 6400 responses were obtained via interviews and Internet surveys. The survey thus gained a statistically significant result on all the environmental attributes including the weighting factors for the G20 circles, G8 states, emerging countries exclusive of the G8 states, and individual countries in which surveys took place. The results have revealed a relatively minor difference in weighting factors and variation coefficients between the areas of protection in the developed countries whereas a considerable difference was observed between those subjects in emerging countries.

Development of water footprint inventory database on Japanese goods and services distinguishing the types of water resources and the forms of water uses based on input-output analysis

PurposeWater footprint is expected as a tool to identify critical and effective points for reducing the impact of water use through the entire life cycle of products, services, and organizations. The purpose of this study is to develop a water footprint inventory database that makes it possible to account the water intensities of all the Japanese goods and services with a differentiation for the types of water resources and the forms of water uses.MethodsAn input-output analysis was applied to establish a comprehensive database covering all of the Japanese goods and services. The amount of water consumption in each sector was estimated by modeling (for agricultural goods) and determined based on the uses of input water according to the statistic reports and hearing survey results (for other sectors). The intensities of direct water input or consumption in each sector were calculated by dividing the amount of water input or consumption with the domestic production amount for each sector. Based on the input-output analysis by using Leontief’s inverse matrix, the intensities of water use and consumption from cradle to gate were estimated for all goods and services in 403 sectors of Japan.Results and discussionThe intensities of water input and consumption in the primary sectors of industry from cradle to gate showed large values and high dependency on rain water as the sources of input water. While the water input intensities in secondary sector of industry were relatively higher than those in tertiary sector of industry, the water consumption intensities generally showed larger reduction in secondary sectors in comparison with those in tertiary sectors due to the utilization of recycling water. The results of comparing the intensities in this study with previous studies showed some differences due to the consideration of site-specific conditions in production and the temporal resolution for the calculation of consumed amount in crop production.ConclusionsBy considering the site-specific conditions, the intensities were developed as the datasets suitable for water footprint of products, services, and organizations in Japan. While this database would be expected to be applied to the implementation of water footprint, the reflection of the effects by imported goods and services through international trade needs to be conducted in the future study for improving the preciseness and reliability of the results of water footprint.

Measuring marginal willingness to pay using conjoint analysis and developing benefit transfer functions in various Asian cities

ABSTRACT We need a consistent methodology to measure the co-benefits of climate change mitigation across Asian countries. This study chose a strategy of modifying the Japan-specific life-cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME) for wider application across countries. LIME has two dimensions. First, it is an environmental science that links the cause-and-effect chain. Second, it is an environmental valuation that weighs four endpoint damages in monetary terms through a conjoint analysis that is derived from an Internet-based questionnaire survey. This article describes the modification of the methodology for application of the conjoint analysis to weigh environmental impacts. We approached the investigation as follows. First, we conducted Internet surveys to measure marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP). We used a sample of 112 respondents in their 20 s to 40 s, divided equally between men and women, in 11 cities across China, India, and Southeast Asia. The results obtained showed clear statistical significance and were comparable across the cities. Second, we attempted to develop functions (called benefit transfer functions) to simplify the measured MWTP in order to apply it across different Asian countries. The functions were derived through a stepwise meta-analytic method, a type of multiple regression analysis whose independent variable was MWTP and dependent variables were attributes of both respondents and surveyed cities. The functions showed that coal consumption and percentage of nature reserve were dependent variables. Then, the MWTPs estimated from the functions were compared with the measured MWTP for transfer error, which is calculated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value divided by the latter. The transfer error was below 50% in about 90% of the 44 results (a combination of four endpoints and 11 cities), implying that the developed functions were statistically significant.

Development of human health damage factors related to CO2 emissions by considering future socioeconomic scenarios

PurposeGlobal warming is exerting a damaging effect on human health. This damage is not only influenced by future climate conditions but also projected economic development and population growth. That being said, there are no health damage factors related to CO2 emissions which take into account future socioeconomic scenarios in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Thus, the purpose of the current research is to calculate human health damage factors based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).MethodsThe procedure used to calculate the SRES-based damage factors is as follows. First, a framework was developed to calculate damage factors based on multiple parameters: rise in temperature, relative risk increase, mortality rate increase, rise in number of deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) increase. Secondly, these parameters were calculated for each individual SRES based on the relationship among the parameters and CO2 emissions, GDP, and population values of each scenario. Finally, the damage factor for each SRES was calculated by multiplying all the parameters that had been calculated based on the CO2 emission, GDP, and population data in the corresponding scenarios.Results and discussionUsing this method, the human health damage factors for four SRESs (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) were calculated. The damage factors consisted of six different items: malaria, diarrhea, cardiovascular disease, malnutrition, coastal flooding, and inland flooding. The calculated results by scenario were 2.0u2009×u200910−7, 6.2u2009×u200910−7, 2.1u2009×u200910−7, and 4.2u2009×u200910−7xa0DALY/kg CO2, respectively. The damage caused by malnutrition is the greatest, followed by diarrhea. Regions of Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East showed the highest damages due to their high damage from malnutrition and diarrhea. With regard to the differences among the four damage factors, the difference between the projected future mortality rate and DALY per death based on the future GDP per capita is greater than the difference between the increases in temperature among scenarios dependent on future CO2 emission.ConclusionsThe human health damage factors related to CO2 emissions for four SRESs were estimated. As a result of differences between future socioeconomic scenarios, the largest amount of damage per CO2 emission unit was three times greater than the smallest amount. Therefore, sensitive analysis is highly recommended when seeking to compare damage caused by global warming and other impact categories.