Koko Warner

Loss and damage from climate change: local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries

Loss and damage is already a significant consequence of inadequate ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns. This paper reports on the first ever multi-country, evidence-based study on loss and damage from the perspective of affected people in least developed and other vulnerable countries. Researchers in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Kenya, Micronesia, Mozambique and Nepal conducted household surveys (n=3,269) and more than a hundred focus group discussions and open interviews about loss and damage. The research reveals four loss and damage pathways. Residual impacts of climate stressors occur when: 1) existing coping/adaptation to biophysical impact is not enough; 2) measures have costs (including non-economic) that cannot be regained; 3) despite short-term merits, measures have negative effects in the longer term; or 4) no measures are adopted - or possible - at all.

Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity

Up to present, research relating environmental change to human mobility has found out that environmental factors can play a role in migration without being conclusive. Further, in the context of climate change, scholarly literature on migration ranges across a host of climatic stressors and geographies, making it difficult to date to solve the debate whether migration is a form of adaptation or an indicator of limits to adaptation. To address both of these debates, original research was undertaken to answer the question ‘under what circumstances do households (HHs) use migration as a risk management strategy when facing rainfall variability and food insecurity?’. This research administered a HH survey (n = 1300) and participatory research (n = 2000 respondents) in districts in eight countries (Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Vietnam). The findings reveal that the answer to how climatic stressors affect migration decisions and the degree to which migration improves the adaptive capacity of those HHs lie in the vulnerability of the HH and its sensitivity to climatic factors. The data reveal for the first time in a comparable global study distinct HH profiles of ‘resilience’ and ‘vulnerability’. At the same time, the article distinguishes between ‘content’ migration – rather associated with resilient HHs – and ‘erosive’ migration – rather associated with vulnerable HHs. However, the article also highlights that there are not always clear cuts but very often grey areas and overlaps among the HHs of the study when applying these typologies. Moreover, the article relates these profiles to an agent-based modelling approach applied in the Tanzania case to explore under what scenarios rainfall variability and food security have the potential to become significant drivers of human mobility in particular regions of the world in the next two to three decades.

Insuring the uninsurable: design options for a climate change funding mechanism

Abstract There is growing interest in the potential role that insurance-related instruments can play in the implementation of climate-change adaptation, particularly for the areas most affected and least able to absorb the negative effects of extreme weather events. Sufficient climate adaptation efforts will require funding at two or three orders of magnitude above the current levels. For rapid-onset climate events, current ex-post disaster finance does not offer strong incentives for risk reduction. This article suggests that insurance-related instruments can be a tool to help in adapting to and ameliorating the negative impacts of climate change for those countries likely to be most negatively affected by climate change. One possibility for an insurance-related mechanism would be a scheme that allows countries (or regions in large developing countries) most affected by climate change to purchase insurance-like coverage for defined climate-related risks. This article refers to such a scheme as the Climate Change Finance Mechanism (CCFM). The attempt to design and implement such an insurance-related mechanism requires careful consideration of several issues, including technical and political challenges. We outline a way to indemnify countries that are likely to suffer most from global climate change and consider what the key design elements would be.

Environmental change and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa

Environmental changes are especially pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Land degradation is nowadays a major concern for 32 countries in Africa, and over 300 million people in SSA face water scarcity (UNEP, 2008). To what extent are environmental factors likely to trigger migration in SSA? To shed some light on the question, this paper provides the latest figures and information. The evidence from different branches of the literature – environmental sciences, migration research as well as development economics – is analysed. A focus on the four countries: Ghana, Mozambique, Niger, and Senegal, offers more specific perspectives from different regions in SSA.

From fatalism to resilience: Reducing disaster impacts through systematic investments

This paper describes a method for reducing the economic risks associated with predictable natural hazards by enhancing the resilience of national infrastructure systems. The three-step generalised framework is described along with examples. Step one establishes economic baseline growth without the disaster impact. Step two characterises economic growth constrained by a disaster. Step three assesses the economys resilience to the disaster event when it is buffered by alternative resiliency investments. The successful outcome of step three is a disaster-resistant core of infrastructure systems and social capacity more able to maintain the national economy and development post disaster. In addition, the paper considers ways to achieve this goal in data-limited environments. The method provides a methodology to address this challenge via the integration of physical and social data of different spatial scales into macroeconomic models. This supports the disaster risk reduction objectives of governments, donor agencies, and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.

Financial services and disaster risk finance: Examples from the community level

Abstract Increased attention has recently been given to the possible role of financial services in the management of natural disaster risk. Local communities have been at the forefront of developing innovative disaster risk finance strategies and implementing risk-oriented incentive programs. In view of increasing risks, including the impacts of climate change, such programs will become more important. This paper examines four models and some recent experiences in using financial services at the community level. The paper offers an overview of advantages and limitations of each model to manage disaster risk in communities. Examples include a federal government initiated scheme of social protection funds, a local government risk reduction scheme, an insurance product provided by a non-governmental organization, and a micro-insurance scheme. Finally, the paper offers some directions about specific ways that the public and private sectors, in collaboration with other partners can improve finance alternatives for disaster management at the community level. It appears that a range of follow-up studies and further dialogue is needed, in order to expand the knowledge on what types of risk finance models can help manage and reduce the financial impacts of natural disasters.

Human mobility in response to rainfall variability: opportunities for migration as a successful adaptation strategy in eight case studies

This article analyses the dynamics between rainfall variability, food insecurity and human mobility in eight case studies, namely Ghana, Tanzania, Guatemala, Peru, Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Vietnam. It covers a large spectrum of rainfall-related climatic events, including floods, drought, seasonal shifts and dry spells, and their impact on food insecurity and in turn on human mobility in approximately 1300 households in the eight case studies. It also summarizes the outcomes of focus group discussions and participatory research approach sessions held with communities in the villages that are affected by rainfall variability. The article compares the outcomes of the case studies and identifies the similarities and areas of overlap. It concludes that for some households – regardless of the case study – there is high potential for migration to be a successful adaptation strategy. Some other households rather find it hard to adapt to the situation in situ; among them, some cannot afford moving to other areas to improve their livelihoods and remain ‘trapped’ while others do move, but barely survive or are even subject to worse conditions. The article provides policy recommendations for policy-makers and practitioners that might be applicable for these, and also other countries exposed to the same climatic issues. Finally, the article provides an outlook with lessons learned for the benefit of future research.

Climate Change, Migration, and Development

Climate change is relatively new to the international discourse on migration and development. The impacts of climate change on migration have been variously debated for almost 20 years now, but there continues to be insufficiently informed debate on the links with development, both as cause and effect. The chapter reviews current knowledge and discussion about how climate change may affect migration and the implications of this for adaptation, development, and immigration policies. The chapter draws on the discussions at the Global Forum on Migration and Development in Puerto Vallarta and the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change summit in Cancun, as they pertain to the interconnections between climate change and migration. The chapter makes recommendations to policy makers in the migration and development fields for specific actions to ensure in-depth qualitative and quantitative research in specific hot spots, dialogue and exchange on good practices, participatory policy planning, the involvement of affected communities in human mobility solutions, and proactive adaptation strategies that deal with migration potentials and impacts in development-sensitive ways.

Migration and Natural Hazards: Is Relocation a Secondary Disaster or an Opportunity for Vulnerability Reduction?

Natural hazards result in substantial human movement and displacement. As the world approaches the year 2050, scientists expect that tipping points will be exceeded and rapid-onset natural hazard events will increase (IPCC, 2007). These developments could move migration to a new magnitude (Christian Aid, 2007; IOM, 2008; Myers, 2002).

European (im)migration policy and environmental change: institutional and governance gaps

Immigration gains a new dimension when climate and/or environmental change contribute to migration. This article defines and explores concepts related to environmentally induced migration, analyses the relevant policies or lack thereof, and suggests ways to bridge the policy gaps that exist in this area. Environmental events or changes are categorised into rapid- or slow-onset processes, and policies for and responses to each category are further explored and explained. Although some regions are equipped to handle an influx of migrants due to these particular circumstances, the majority of regions investigated have policies that can only partially respond to this phenomenon.