Tamer Afifi

Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity

Up to present, research relating environmental change to human mobility has found out that environmental factors can play a role in migration without being conclusive. Further, in the context of climate change, scholarly literature on migration ranges across a host of climatic stressors and geographies, making it difficult to date to solve the debate whether migration is a form of adaptation or an indicator of limits to adaptation. To address both of these debates, original research was undertaken to answer the question ‘under what circumstances do households (HHs) use migration as a risk management strategy when facing rainfall variability and food insecurity?’. This research administered a HH survey (n = 1300) and participatory research (n = 2000 respondents) in districts in eight countries (Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Vietnam). The findings reveal that the answer to how climatic stressors affect migration decisions and the degree to which migration improves the adaptive capacity of those HHs lie in the vulnerability of the HH and its sensitivity to climatic factors. The data reveal for the first time in a comparable global study distinct HH profiles of ‘resilience’ and ‘vulnerability’. At the same time, the article distinguishes between ‘content’ migration – rather associated with resilient HHs – and ‘erosive’ migration – rather associated with vulnerable HHs. However, the article also highlights that there are not always clear cuts but very often grey areas and overlaps among the HHs of the study when applying these typologies. Moreover, the article relates these profiles to an agent-based modelling approach applied in the Tanzania case to explore under what scenarios rainfall variability and food security have the potential to become significant drivers of human mobility in particular regions of the world in the next two to three decades.

Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability

The recent increase in the number of publications, debates and public discourse about the displacement of people caused by environmental changes can be reasonably attributed to the alarming intensity of the situation. In the near future, the proliferation of environmentally forced migrants (EM) is expected to create tremendous socio-economic and political problems. In spite of the immensity of the problem, no official definition of this class of migrants has been established and no policy measures are adopted at the national and international level.

Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same-Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

This article addresses the interrelation between rainfall variability, food insecurity and human mobility in three villages located in the Same District, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, namely the villages Vudee, Bangalala and Ruvu Mferejini which are of distinct elevation and precipitation levels. It runs a comparison between the three villages and shows that there is a positive relationship between rainfall shortage and out-migration, after taking other important demographic and socio-economic factors into account, such as age, wealth and education. The article further argues that the mechanism through which rainfall variability affects human mobility in the research site is food insecurity for humans and livestock.

Human mobility in response to rainfall variability: opportunities for migration as a successful adaptation strategy in eight case studies

This article analyses the dynamics between rainfall variability, food insecurity and human mobility in eight case studies, namely Ghana, Tanzania, Guatemala, Peru, Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Vietnam. It covers a large spectrum of rainfall-related climatic events, including floods, drought, seasonal shifts and dry spells, and their impact on food insecurity and in turn on human mobility in approximately 1300 households in the eight case studies. It also summarizes the outcomes of focus group discussions and participatory research approach sessions held with communities in the villages that are affected by rainfall variability. The article compares the outcomes of the case studies and identifies the similarities and areas of overlap. It concludes that for some households – regardless of the case study – there is high potential for migration to be a successful adaptation strategy. Some other households rather find it hard to adapt to the situation in situ; among them, some cannot afford moving to other areas to improve their livelihoods and remain ‘trapped’ while others do move, but barely survive or are even subject to worse conditions. The article provides policy recommendations for policy-makers and practitioners that might be applicable for these, and also other countries exposed to the same climatic issues. Finally, the article provides an outlook with lessons learned for the benefit of future research.

Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility in the Janjgir-Champa district of Chhattisgarh state, India

The impacts of rainfall variability are threatening food production systems, leading to losses of livelihood and food insecurity. The frequency and intensity of floods and drought are likely to be higher as a result of climate change. This case study presents an empirical account of the impacts of rainfall variability on agriculture, food security, livelihoods and human mobility in the Janjigir-Champa district of Chhattisgarh. The research tests the hypothesis that human migration is a major coping mechanism against climate variability. The findings confirm that a coordination mechanism exists between rainfall changes (i.e. erratic rainfall patterns in terms of delayed monsoons, seasonal shifts, drought and floods) and livelihood and food security of a number of farmers and farm labourers in the research site. Because there is only a single annual harvest of paddy rice (practiced as monoculture) in the research site, which is partly due to the non-availability of water for a second crop, marginal farmers and farm labourers are left with very few options in finding sufficient employment in and around their villages. Some people cope with the situation by seeking assistance from their relatives, friends and the government. However, seasonal and permanent migrations are the most opted-for coping strategies in the study area.

Rainfall Variability, Hunger, and Social Inequality, and Their Relative Influences on Migration: Evidence from Bangladesh

Research on climate change and migration usually assesses the effects of natural hazards and/or creeping environmental degradation on people’s livelihoods and their migration. This chapter looks at changing rainfall patterns, local perception of these changes, and the decision to migrate, or not, to cope with rainfall variability and hunger. Based on empirical evidence from a case study undertaken in Kurigram District in northern Bangladesh, this chapter addresses four key questions: (1) Is the rural population sensitive to rainfall variability? (2) How is rainfall variability related to food security? (3) Which labour-migration systems can be used by the local people to cope with environmental shocks and adapt to change? and (4) Do people migrate for work to cope with and adapt to the effects of rainfall variability or because of food insecurity and social inequality? Although rainfall variability can play an important role in people’s decisions to migrate, we argue that migration from the region is not driven so much by climate changes as it is by the persistent local patterns of social inequality and food insecurity coupled with the structural economic disparities that exist in Bangladesh.

The Environmental Root Causes Triggering Economic Migration: The Case of Egypt

Egypt covers a total area of about 1 million km², most of which experiences arid and hyper-arid climatic conditions.