Kristian Hoelscher

Political order, development and social violence

Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due to homicides worldwide outnumber those due to organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 to 1, this question has received very little attention from conflict and development specialists in recent years. As a modest first step in addressing this gap in the literature we draw together insights from the conflict and criminology literatures to develop a model of social violence that accounts for both political-institutional and socio-economic factors. While there is an extensive literature on the socio-economic determinants of social violence, there are only a handful of studies that consider the significance of political-institutional arrangements. Using cross-country estimates of homicides produced by the World Health Organization as an indicator of social violence, we test our model using OLS regression analysis for a sample of more than 120 countries. We find that countries with ‘hybrid’ political orders experience higher rates of social violence than those with strong autocratic or strong democratic regimes, and that weakly institutionalized democracies are particularly violent. We also find robust associations between indicators of poverty, inequality and ethnic diversity and social violence. These results indicate that social and political violence share some common underlying causes. We conclude by suggesting that the apparent global decline in organized armed conflict and the concomitant rise in social violence in recent decades may be linked to world urbanization and the ‘third wave’ of democratization in the global South, although further research is required to confirm this hypothesis.

Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities

By 2050, two thirds of the worlds population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed countries. This presents many governments with considerable challenges related to urban governance and the provision of services and opportunities to a burgeoning urban population. In the current article, we use a new event dataset on city-level urban social disorder, drawing upon prominent theories in the conflict literature. The dataset spans the 1960–2009 period, covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and includes data on nonviolent actions such as demonstrations and strikes and violent political actions like riots, terrorism, and armed conflict. We find that urban social disorder is associated in particular with low economic growth rates and hybrid democratic regimes, while level of development, economic inequality, large youth bulges, and economic globalization do not seem to affect levels of urban social disorder.

Hearts and mines: A district-level analysis of the Maoist conflict in India:

India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programmes in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron and coal mines that drive India’s growth. This study aims to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging qualitative fieldwork with disparate district-level conflict data sources to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programmes is loosely related to the immediate suppression of violent activities in Maoist-affected districts, and under certain conditions mining activity increases the likelihood for conflict, it is the presence of scheduled caste and tribal communities that is the best predictor of violence.

The evolution of the smart cities agenda in India

With the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, urban-led economic growth in India was firmly framed around a vision of ‘smart cities’, an ambiguous concept, which promotes the integration of information and communication technologies in cities to improve economic growth, quality of life, governance, mobility and sustainability. Given its current policy importance, this article examines how the smart cities agenda in India has emerged, what it has encompassed and its potential for transformative urban development. Reviewing policy documents and statements in combination with selected key stakeholder interviews, this article traces the emergence of the smart cities discourse in India, suggesting that the vision and concept of the smart city has shifted over time and has been evoked in different ways to serve different purposes. Overall, the smart cities agenda in India appears to be characterized by a failure to conceptualize and develop an integrated set of policies, and while a clearer (yet contested) concept is emerging, the prospects for success are uncertain.

Urban violence and the militarisation of security: Brazilian ‘peacekeeping’ in Rio de Janeiro and Port-au-Prince

Despite problems of violence domestically, Brazil has played a key leadership role as part of MINUSTAH peacekeeping operations in Haiti since 2004. This article addresses how Brazils international military engagement is shaping domestic approaches to urban security, and what may be the implications of the use of military strategies, operations, and norms to address issues of public security in Brazilian cities. It is argued that current approaches toward urban security employing military-trained peacekeepers actually represent a continuation of old paradigms, yet these recent militarised approaches are likely evolving into newer and potentially more accountable forms by constraining indiscriminate use of force and establishing a positive state presence in marginal urban areas. As such, the article connects long-established issues of dealing with urban violence in Latin America with ongoing debates in the United States and beyond about post-counterinsurgency approaches to increasingly urban conflict settings. It reflects on potential lessons to be learned from the Latin American perspective, while showing also how these have changed over the last decade. The article concludes that despite the potential utility of force in some urban conflict settings, this approach could entail a normative shift towards legitimising forceful containment of violence, and hinder democratic consolidation in Brazil.

Conflict, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Security: Understanding Violent Attacks Against Aid Workers

ABSTRACT What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe trends rather than analyse the underlying reasons behind attacks. To move this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first peer-reviewed cross-national time-series study that identifies factors related to violent attacks on humanitarian aid workers. Our theoretical framework explores two sets of potential explanatory factors: dynamics of conflicts; and the politicization and militarization of humanitarian operations. Using a global sample at the country level from 1997 to 2014, our results suggest that: (i) the presence and severity of armed conflicts are related to increased attacks on aid workers; (ii) aid workers do not appear to face greater risks even where civilians are targeted; (iii) the presence of an international military force does not appear to add to nor decrease risks to aid workers; and (iv) the effects of peacekeeping operations upon humanitarian security are varied. We discuss this in light of the ongoing challenges facing humanitarian organizations to provide security in fragile and conflict-affected areas.

A new research approach for Peace Innovation

ABSTRACT How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? In arguing that incorporating contextual, area-specific and conflict-sensitive guidance enhances the quality and depth of innovation, this article calls for a new research approach on Peace Innovation (PI). This approach could help overcome four existing challenges: expanding the scholar–entrepreneur–policy triad of PI; prioritizing ethical, culturally sensitive engagement; designing innovation to more clearly deliver positive impacts in conflict environments; and glocalizing the PI playing field. We then explore five thematic areas where PI can be impactful: forecasting political economies of conflict; business and virtual peacebuilding; climate and environmentalism; migration and identity; and urbanization. Finally, we discuss how to operationalize such partnerships, moving the theoretical discussion on PI forward for both the peacebuilding and innovation communities. Pushing research frontiers forward will also help innovators develop better tools that prevent violence and promote peace in crisis and conflict environments.

Challenges and opportunities in an urbanising India

India is in the midst of a transformative urban awakening. The country’s 380 million urban population as of 2011 is projected to swell to over 600 million by 2030 and almost 900 million by 2050. These processes of urbanization and urban growth are embedded in and shape complex political, social, demographic, environmental and ethno-religious contexts; and while the developmental advantages to urban modes of living are clear, urbanization in India comes with its own set of challenges. This introduction outlines the current special issue, which collects six articles that reflect on three key themes in contemporary urban India: urban governance and planning; social, economic and political exclusion and the conflicts this may engender; and climate change in Indian cities. Here we briefly contextualise some of these issues, and reflect on some of the cross-cutting themes that individual articles in this issue address. Our hope is that this volume contributes to debates on the dynamics of governance, inclusiveness, security and prosperity in today’s urban India.

Smart Cities, Mobile Technologies and Social Cohesion in India

India’s cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transition may exacerbate fragile communal and infrastructural tensions. To address these challenges, the ‘Smart Cities’ agenda attempts to leverage India’s rapid embrace of technology to generate societal positive developmental outcomes in urban areas that emphasize the use of Internet and communications technologies (ICTs). However, local, regional and national government agencies struggle to balance embracing technology with inclusive development that protects civil rights and liberties. While the benefits are often stated, the acceleration of technology use in urban development can also create exclusionary cities, and many technologies that drive India’s modernization have also facilitated riots and violence between communities. This article explores these contradictions, examining scholarship on Smart Cities and ICTs in the context of the 2015–2016 Patel/Patidar agitation in Gujarat. We conclude by offering forward pathways for the Smart Cities and mobile technology agendas that support inclusive urban growth and development in India but are also mindful of civil liberties.