Kurt Braddock

Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges in Assessing the Effectiveness of De-radicalization Programs

Renewed interest on how and why terrorism ends has emerged in parallel with increased visibility of some new and innovative approaches to counterterrorism. These are collectively known, whether for good or bad, as “de-radicalization programs.” However, and despite their popularity, data surrounding even the most basic of facts about these programs remains limited. This article presents an overview of the results of a one-year pilot study of select de-radicalization programs and investigates critical issues surrounding assessment of their effectiveness and outcomes. We argue that Multi Attribute Utility Technology (MAUT) may offer promise for future empirical assessment of what we prefer to designate “terrorism risk reduction initiatives.” Perhaps less obviously, and until more data surrounding the efficacy of such initiatives becomes available, MAUT may also provide a conceptual basis for planning, evaluating, and guiding the development of future such initiatives and may have the unanticipated consequence of facilitating progress by encouraging greater exploration of efforts to change behavior from other contexts.

Meta-analytic evidence for the persuasive effect of narratives on beliefs, attitudes, intentions, and behaviors

ABSTRACT Although narratives are often credited with the capacity to change opinions, empirical tests of this prediction have produced mixed results. To provide a more precise test of narratives effect on beliefs, attitudes, intentions, and behaviors, we performed meta-analyses on studies that evaluated narratives persuasive influence on these outcomes. Results suggested positive relationships between exposure to a narrative and narrative-consistent beliefs (k = 37; N = 7,376; r = .17), attitudes (k = 40; N = 7,132; r = .19), intentions (k = 28; N = 5,211; r = .17), and behaviors (k = 5; N = 978; r = .23). Moderator analyses on the effect of fictionality yielded mixed results. Neither medium of presentation nor research design influenced the magnitude of the narrative-persuasion relationship. However, results suggested the presence of unidentified moderators.

Towards a Guide for Constructing and Disseminating Counternarratives to Reduce Support for Terrorism

ABSTRACT Despite widespread recognition that the use of counternarratives is an important strategic component of countering violent extremism, to date, there are no comprehensive guidelines on how to develop and distribute counternarratives to effectively reduce support for terrorism. To redress this, we offer communication and psychology theory-based procedures for (1) analyzing terrorist narratives, (2) constructing counternarratives that challenge terrorist narratives, and (3) disseminating the counternarratives to overcome barriers to persuasion. Analysts and practitioners can use such guidelines in developing counternarratives to reduce support for violent extremism.

Organisational adaptation in an activist network: social networks, leadership, and change in al-Muhajiroun.

Social networks are said to facilitate learning and adaptation by providing the connections through which network nodes (or agents) share information and experience. Yet, our understanding of how this process unfolds in real-world networks remains underdeveloped. This paper explores this gap through a case study of al-Muhajiroun, an activist network that continues to call for the establishment of an Islamic state in Britain despite being formally outlawed by British authorities. Drawing on organisation theory and social network analysis, we formulate three hypotheses regarding the learning capacity and social network properties of al-Muhajiroun (AM) and its successor groups. We then test these hypotheses using mixed methods. Our methods combine quantitative analysis of three agent-based networks in AM measured for structural properties that facilitate learning, including connectedness, betweenness centrality and eigenvector centrality, with qualitative analysis of interviews with AM activists focusing organisational adaptation and learning. The results of these analyses confirm that al-Muhajiroun activists respond to government pressure by changing their operations, including creating new platforms under different names and adjusting leadership roles among movement veterans to accommodate their spiritual leaders unwelcome exodus to Lebanon. Simple as they are effective, these adaptations have allowed al-Muhajiroun and its successor groups to continue their activism in an increasingly hostile environment.

The utility of narratives for promoting radicalization: The case of the Animal Liberation Front

Although terrorism scholars have begun to recognize the role of communication in the promotion of radicalization, there have been few (if any) studies to explore the radicalizing effects of specific types of communication. To redress this oversight, this study seeks to investigate one of the most prevalent types of communication used by terrorist groups – narratives. Specifically, this study features a theme analysis of narratives disseminated by a specific terrorist group, the Animal Liberation Front (ALF), and a discussion of the ways in which the ALFs narrative themes may promote the adoption of beliefs, attitudes, and intentions that are consistent with the groups ideology. Results demonstrate that the ALF narratives are primarily comprised of 10 themes that may promote radicalization through identification with story characters, elicitation of emotional responses, and distinction of in-groups and out-groups. Future avenues of research, including the development of counter-narratives, are also discussed.

Impulsivity Partially Mediates the Relationship Between BIS/BAS and Risky Health Behaviors

Several theorists have suggested that impulsivity can be understood as a joint function of the behavioral approach (BAS) and behavioral inhibition systems (BIS). After resolving questions concerning the measurement of impulsivity and BAS, this study examined the relationships among risky health behaviors, impulsivity, BIS, and BAS. Utilizing a sample of undergraduates (N = 904), a structural model was tested in which BAS and BIS predicted impulsivity, which, in turn, predicted risky behavior. Fit indices were acceptable, but not good. A modified version of the model showed a statistically significant negative relationship between BAS and risky behaviors. However, the fit indices were not unequivocally supportive of the need to include that path. Overall, the data suggest that impulsivity is the joint result of countervailing motivational forces and that it partially or fully mediates the influence of BIS and BAS on risky health behavior.