Laurence C. Smith

Satellite remote sensing of river inundation area, stage, and discharge: a review

The growing availability of multi-temporal satellite data has increased opportunities for monitoring large rivers from space. A variety of passive and active sensors operating in the visible and microwave range are currently operating, or planned, which can estimate inundation area and delineate flood boundaries. Radar altimeters show great promise for directly measuring stage variation in large rivers. It also appears to be possible to obtain estimates of river discharge from space, using ground measurements and satellite data to construct empirical curves that relate water surface area to discharge. Extrapolation of these curves to ungauged sites may be possible for the special case of braided rivers. Where clouds, trees and floating vegetation do not obscure the water surface, high-resolution visible/infrared sensors provide good delineation of inundated areas. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors can penetrate clouds and can also detect standing water through emergent aquatic plants and forest canopies. However, multiple frequencies and polarizations are required for optimal discrimination of various inundated vegetation cover types. Existing singlepolarization, fixed-frequency SARs are not suAcient for mapping inundation area in all riverine environments. In the absence of a space-borne multi-parameter SAR, a synergistic approach using single-frequency, fixed-polarization SAR and visible/infrared data will provide the best results over densely vegetated river floodplains. #1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methane bubbling from northern lakes: present and future contributions to the global methane budget

Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane (CH4) limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Here we describe and quantify an important source of CH4—point-source ebullition (bubbling) from northern lakes—that has not been incorporated in previous regional or global methane budgets. Employing a method recently introduced to measure ebullition more accurately by taking into account its spatial patchiness in lakes, we estimate point-source ebullition for 16 lakes in Alaska and Siberia that represent several common northern lake types: glacial, alluvial floodplain, peatland and thermokarst (thaw) lakes. Extrapolation of measured fluxes from these 16 sites to all lakes north of 45° N using circumpolar databases of lake and permafrost distributions suggests that northern lakes are a globally significant source of atmospheric CH4, emitting approximately 24.2±10.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. Thermokarst lakes have particularly high emissions because they release CH4 produced from organic matter previously sequestered in permafrost. A carbon mass balance calculation of CH4 release from thermokarst lakes on the Siberian yedoma ice complex suggests that these lakes alone would emit as much as approximately 49 000 Tg CH4 if this ice complex was to thaw completely. Using a space-for-time substitution based on the current lake distributions in permafrost-dominated and permafrost-free terrains, we estimate that lake emissions would be reduced by approximately 12% in a more probable transitional permafrost scenario and by approximately 53% in a ‘permafrost-free’ Northern Hemisphere. Long-term decline in CH4 ebullition from lakes due to lake area loss and permafrost thaw would occur only after the large release of CH4 associated thermokarst lake development in the zone of continuous permafrost.

Interferometric radar measurements of water level changes on the Amazon flood plain

Measurements of water levels in the main channels of rivers, upland tributaries and floodplain lakes are necessary for understanding flooding hazards, methane production, sediment transport and nutrient exchange. But most remote river basins have only a few gauging stations and these tend to be restricted to large river channels. Although radar remote sensing techniques using interferometric phase measurements have the potential to greatly improve spatial sampling, the phase is temporally incoherent over open water and has therefore not been used to determine water levels. Here we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, acquired over the central Amazon by the Space Shuttle imaging radar mission, to measure subtle water level changes in an area of flooded vegetation on the Amazon flood plain. The technique makes use of the fact that flooded forests and floodplain lakes with emergent shrubs permit radar double-bounce returns from water and vegetation surfaces, thus allowing coherence to be maintained. Our interferometric phase observations show decreases in water levels of 7–11 cm per day for tributaries and lakes within ∼20 km of a main channel and 2–5 cm per day at distances of ∼80 km. Proximal floodplain observations are in close agreement with main-channel gauge records, indicating a rapid response of the flood plain to decreases in river stage. With additional data from future satellite missions, the technique described here should provide direct observations important for understanding flood dynamics and hydrologic exchange between rivers and flood plains.

Stream flow characterization and feature detection using a discrete wavelet transform

An exploration of the wavelet transform as applied to daily river discharge records demonstrates its strong potential for quantifying stream flow variability. Both periodic and non-periodic features are detected equally, and their locations in time preserved. Wavelet scalograms often reveal structures that are obscure in raw discharge data. Integration of transform magnitude vectors over time yields wavelet spectra that reflect the characteristic time-scales of a rivers flow, which in turn are controlled by the hydroclimatic regime. For example, snowmelt rivers in Colorado possess maximum wavelet spectral energy at time-scales on the order of 4 months owing to sustained high summer flows; Hawaiian streams display high energies at time-scales of a few days, reflecting the domination of brief rainstorm events. Wavelet spectral analyses of daily discharge records for 91 rivers in the US and on tropical islands indicate that this is a simple and robust way to characterize stream flow variability. Wavelet spectral shape is controlled by the distribution of event time-scales, which in turn reflects the timing, variability and often the mechanism of water delivery to the river. Five hydroclimatic regions, listed here in order of decreasing seasonality and increasing pulsatory nature, are described from the wavelet spectral analysis: (a) western snowmelt, (b) north-eastern snowmelt, (c) mid-central humid, (d) south-western arid and (e) ‘rainstorm island’. Spectral shape is qualitatively diagnostic for three of these regions. While more work is needed to establish the use of wavelets for hydrograph analysis, our results suggest that river flows may be effectively classified into distinct hydroclimatic categories using this approach.

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

Estimation of Discharge From Three Braided Rivers Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellite Imagery: Potential Application to Ungaged Basins

Analysis of 41 ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar images and simultaneous ground measurements of discharge for three large braided rivers indicates that the area of active flow on braided river floodplains is primarily a function of discharge. A power law correlation is found between satellite-derived effective width We and discharge Q, where We is the water surface area within a braided reach divided by the reach length. Synthetic values of We and Q generated from a cellular automata model of stream braiding display a similar power law correlation. Power functions that are fit through plots of We and Q represent satellite-derived rating curves that can subsequently be used to estimate instantaneous river discharge from space, with errors ranging from tens to hundreds of cubic meters per second. For ungaged rivers, changes in relative discharge can be determined from satellite data alone to determine the shape and timing of annual flows in glacierized basins. Absolute discharge can probably be estimated within a factor of 2. More accurate estimates will require either (1) one or more ground measurements of discharge acquired simultaneously with a satellite image acquisition, or (2) successful parameterization of known morphologic controls such as total sinuosity 5;P, valley slope, bank material and stability, and braid channel hydraulic geometry. Values of total sinuosity 5;P derived from satellite imagery and field measurements from two rivers of braid channel width, depth, velocity, water surface slope, and bed material grain size indicate that while the shape of satellite-derived We-Q rating curves may be influenced by all of these variables, the sensitivity of flow area to changing discharge is most dependent upon the degree of braiding. Efforts to monitor river discharge from space will be most successful for intensely braided rivers with high values of total sinuosity. Subsampling of existing daily discharge records from the Iskut River suggests that satellite return times of about 1 week are sufficient for approximating the shape and timing of the seasonal hydrograph in large, glacierized basins. Although errors are large, the presented technique represents the only currently available way to estimate discharge in ungauged braided rivers.

Peatlands of the Western Siberian lowlands: current knowledge on zonation, carbon content and Late Quaternary history

The Western Siberian lowlands (WSL) are the world’s largest high-latitude wetland, and possess over 900,000 km 2 of peatlands. The peatlands of the WSL are of major importance to high-latitude hydrology, carbon storage and environmental history. Analysis of the existing Russian data suggests that the mean depth of peat accumulation in the WSL is 256 cm and the total amount of carbon stored there may exceed 53,836 million metric tons. A synthesis of published and unpublished radiocarbon dates indicates that the peatlands first developed at the end of the Last Glacial, with a rapid phase of initiation between 11,000 and 10,000 cal yr BP. Initiation slowed after 8000 cal yr BP and reached a nadir at 4000 cal yr BP. There has been renewed initiation, particularly south of 621N, following 4000 cal yr BP. The initial development of peatlands in the WSL corresponds with the warming at the close of the Pleistocene. Cooling after 4000 Cal yr BP has likely led to increased permafrost and increased peatland development particularly in central and southern regions. Cold and dry conditions in the far north may have inhibited peatland formation in the late Holocene. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

RivWidth: A Software Tool for the Calculation of River Widths From Remotely Sensed Imagery

RivWidth is an implementation in ITT Visual Information Solutions IDL of a new algorithm that automates the calculation of river widths using raster-based classifications of inundation extent derived from remotely sensed imagery. The algorithm utilizes techniques of boundary definition to extract a river centerline, derives a line segment that is orthogonal to this line at each centerline pixel, and then computes the total river width along each orthogonal. The output of RivWidth is comparable in quality to measurements derived using manual techniques; yet, it continuously generates thousands of width values along an entire stream course, even in multichannel river systems. Uncertainty in RivWidth principally depends on the quality of the water classification used as an input, though pixel resolution and the values of input parameters play lesser roles. Source code for RivWidth can be obtained by visiting http://pavelsky.googlepages.com/rivwidth.

Toward global mapping of river discharge using satellite images and at-many-stations hydraulic geometry

Significance Political and practical realities limit our knowledge of water resources in many parts of the world. Here, we present a radically different approach for quantitative remote sensing of river discharge (flow rate) that is enabled by advancing a classic theory of river hydraulics and adapting it for use with satellite or aerial images. Because no ground-based information is required, the approach holds promise for addressing pressing societal, ecological, and scientific problems through global mapping of river flow. Rivers provide critical water supply for many human societies and ecosystems, yet global knowledge of their flow rates is poor. We show that useful estimates of absolute river discharge (in cubic meters per second) may be derived solely from satellite images, with no ground-based or a priori information whatsoever. The approach works owing to discovery of a characteristic scaling law uniquely fundamental to natural rivers, here termed a river’s at-many-stations hydraulic geometry. A first demonstration using Landsat Thematic Mapper images over three rivers in the United States, Canada, and China yields absolute discharges agreeing to within 20–30% of traditional in situ gauging station measurements and good tracking of flow changes over time. Within such accuracies, the door appears open for quantifying river resources globally with repeat imaging, both retroactively and henceforth into the future, with strong implications for water resource management, food security, ecosystem studies, flood forecasting, and geopolitics.

A spatially calibrated model of annual accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet (1958-2007)

[1] Past estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet accumulation rates have been multiyear climatologies based on ice/firn cores and coastal precipitation records. Existing annually resolved estimates have incompletely quantified uncertainty, owing primarily to incomplete spatial coverage. This study improves upon these shortcomings by calibrating annual (1958–2007) solid precipitation output from the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model modified for polar climates (Polar MM5) using firn core and meteorological station data. The calibration employs spatial interpolation of regionally derived linear correction functions. Residual uncertainties exhibit coherent spatial patterns, which are modeled via spatial interpolation of root mean squared errors. Mean 1958–2007 Greenland Ice Sheet annual accumulation rate is 337 ± 48 mm/yr water equivalent (w.e.) or 591 ± 83 Gt/yr. Annual estimates contain one standard deviation uncertainties of 74 mm/yr w.e., 22%, or 129 Gt/yr. Accumulation rates in southeast Greenland are found to exceed 2000 mm/yr w.e. and to dominate interannual variability in Greenland Ice Sheet total accumulated mass, representing 31% of the whole. Accumulation rates in the southeast are of sufficient magnitude to affect the sign of Greenland mass balance during some years. The only statistically significant temporal change in total ice sheet accumulation in the 1958–2007 period occurred between 1960 and 1972, when a simultaneous accumulation increase and decrease occurred in west and east Greenland, respectively. No statistically significant uniform change in ice sheet‐wide accumulation is evident after 1972. However, regional changesdooccur,includingan accumulation increaseonthewestcoast post‐1992.Thehigh accumulation rates of 2002–2003 appear to be confined to the southeast.