Lauro Gonzalez

Crises financeiras nos anos 1990 e poupança externa

Ao contrario do que afirma a analise economica convencional, a causa principal das crises financeiras dos paises emergentes dos anos 1990 e inicio dos anos 2000s comecando pela do Mexico (1994) e terminando com a da Argentina (2001) nao foi fiscal, mas a decisao dos governos de promover o crescimento com poupanca externa, isto e, com deficits em conta corrente. Como a taxa de câmbio tem outros determinantes alem da absorcao interna, o pressuposto dos deficits gemeos com frequencia nao e valido. Essas foram de balanco de pagamentos e se caracterizaram por elevados deficits em conta corrente e forte aumento da divida externa e/ou por forte aumento do deficit em conta corrente, que levaram os credores a se persuadirem que o problema do pais era ou de liquidez ou de solvencia, ou ambos, e decidirem, subitamente, suspender a rolagem da divida externa do pais. Um teste econometrico substancia a hipotese do trabalho.

Microfinanças e impactos das mudanças climáticas: o caso do Agroamigo no Brasil

This paper reports an empirical case study on the interface between microfinance and climate change actions. Climate change, which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for its future. For their low adaptive capacity, the millions of microfinance clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. However, such an arena is still blurred from an academic viewpoint, and inexistent among Brazilian academia. Therefore, by investigating Brazil’s largest rural MFI, Agroamigo, we aim at providing an empirical contribution to green microfinance. The main conclusion is that, albeit Agroamigo offers important links to climate change initiatives, it will need to take better account of specific vulnerabilities and risks to protect its portfolio and clients better from climate change impacts.

Green microfinance: the case of the Cresol System in Southern Brazil

Climate change which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for the future of the sector. Due to their low adaptive capacity, the millions of MF clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. Adapting previous analysis conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh by Agrawala and Maelis (2010) to the Brazilian context, in this inductive qualitative study we aim to assess potential synergies between MF and CC actions and what strategies can be harnessed to better respond to CC vulnerabilities at client/MF level. To do so, we investigated the case of the second largest rural microcredit programme in Brazil, Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Credito Rural com Interacao Solidaria. Albeit important overlaps between Cresol’s product envelope and CC strategies exist, there is still room to realise synergies to both mitigate a new potential source of risk to Cresol’s portfolio and to increase clients’ adaptive capacity.El cambio climatico que hasta hace poco parecia un lujo intangible para el sector de las microfinanzas, ahora parece ser crucial para el futuro del sector. Debido a la baja capacidad adaptativa, millones de clientes de microfinanzas de todo el mundo seran los mas vulnerables al cambio climatico. Adaptando el analisis de Agrawala y Maelis (2010) en Nepal y Bangladesh al contexto brasileno, este estudio cualitativo inductivo evalua posibles sinergias entre MF y temas de MC, asi como las estrategias que se pueden mejorar para reducir las vulnerabilidades de MC en el nivel micro/institucional. Por lo tanto, se investigo el segundo mas grande programa de microcredito rural de Brasil, el Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Credito Rural con Interaccion Solidaria. Aunque existan importantes vinculos entre la cartera de productos de Cresol y estrategias de mitigacion/adaptacion, hay todavia margen para mejorar estas sinergias para mitigar una posible nueva fuente de riesgo y aumentar la capacidad de adaptacion de los clientes.

The impact of microcredit on income: the case of Banco Real in Brazil

This study aims to evaluate the impact of productive microcredit provided by a microfinance institution linked to a commercial bank by examining a sample of 20,628 customers. Academic literature points to the existence of shared specific characteristics amongst successful microcredit programs, including: (a) the use of a solidarity group, also called a joint debtor, (b) strong female participation, (c) a focus on poor regions, and (d) the presence of a loan officer. This article finds that the female variable is associated with increased income for the individual participant. Women began the program with an average sales value less than men, yet their sales grew exponentially at about 10% with each extension of credit.

Financial Literacy and Informal Loan

The finance literature documents associations between family financial literacy and their propensity to borrow. However, there is a predominance of studies that focus exclusively on formal loan markets. In this chapter, based on 2023 observations about financial behavior of families, we examined the impacts of financial literacy on borrowing in informal markets, such as loans obtained from friends or acquaintances or even moneylenders. Using multinomial logit models, we measured the effects of financial literacy on the propensity to take informal loans, comparing two groups: families that did not take any type of loan and those took bank loans. The proxy adopted for the level of financial literacy is the consumption of a particular financial product called capitalization bond. The results suggest that financial literacy may have greater relevance in the propensity for informal loans compared to the formal credit constraint.

DEFICIT DE ALFABETIZAÇÃO FINANCEIRA INDUZ AO USO DE EMPRÉSTIMOS EM MERCADOS INFORMAIS

Finance literature documents associations between a family’s financial literacy and its propensity to borrow. However, most studies focus exclusively on formal loan markets. Based on 2,023 observations about financial behavior of Brazilian families, we examined the impacts of financial literacy on informal borrowing, such as loans from friends or moneylenders. Using multinomial logit models, we compared financial literacy’s effects on the propensity to take informal loans between families that did not borrow at all and those who took bank loans. Financial literacy is measured by the investment in capitalization bonds, a financial instrument in the Brazilian market. The results suggest that financial literacy’s relevance to informal loans may exceed that for formal credit channels.

What Can Explain the Recent Adoption of Correspondent Banking by Credit Unions in Brazil

Credit Unions (CU) represent a particular non-capitalist alternative to promote financial inclusion and local development. Correspondent banking (CB) have proved to be a channel that gets closer to the underserved by the traditional financial system. The recent adoption of the CB channel improves CU outreach and thus could expad their ability to promote financial inclusion. This study investigates the recent expansion of CB networks controlled by CU, questioning the potential of this new organizational model for financial inclusion.

Microfinanzas verdes: el caso del Sistema Cresol en la región Sur de Brasil

Climate change which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for the future of the sector. Due to their low adaptive capacity, the millions of MF clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. Adapting previous analysis conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh by Agrawala and Maelis (2010) to the Brazilian context, in this inductive qualitative study we aim to assess potential synergies between MF and CC actions and what strategies can be harnessed to better respond to CC vulnerabilities at client/MF level. To do so, we investigated the case of the second largest rural microcredit programme in Brazil, Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Credito Rural com Interacao Solidaria. Albeit important overlaps between Cresol’s product envelope and CC strategies exist, there is still room to realise synergies to both mitigate a new potential source of risk to Cresol’s portfolio and to increase clients’ adaptive capacity.El cambio climatico que hasta hace poco parecia un lujo intangible para el sector de las microfinanzas, ahora parece ser crucial para el futuro del sector. Debido a la baja capacidad adaptativa, millones de clientes de microfinanzas de todo el mundo seran los mas vulnerables al cambio climatico. Adaptando el analisis de Agrawala y Maelis (2010) en Nepal y Bangladesh al contexto brasileno, este estudio cualitativo inductivo evalua posibles sinergias entre MF y temas de MC, asi como las estrategias que se pueden mejorar para reducir las vulnerabilidades de MC en el nivel micro/institucional. Por lo tanto, se investigo el segundo mas grande programa de microcredito rural de Brasil, el Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Credito Rural con Interaccion Solidaria. Aunque existan importantes vinculos entre la cartera de productos de Cresol y estrategias de mitigacion/adaptacion, hay todavia margen para mejorar estas sinergias para mitigar una posible nueva fuente de riesgo y aumentar la capacidad de adaptacion de los clientes.