Lawson W. Brigham

Marine accessibility along Russia's Northern Sea Route

Recent Arctic sea ice retreat indicates that the Russian coastal seas encompassing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will be among the first marine environments to transition to a summer ice-free state. Forty-six voyages carrying 1.26 million tons of cargo in 2012 suggest increasing economic viability of the NSR for eastward transport of natural resources from northern Norway and Russia. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the near-term length and variability of the navigation season, and shelf bathymetry presents a critical constraint limiting vessel draft and cargo capacity. This paper aims to quantify the length and variability of the NSR navigation season as constrained by both sea ice and bathymetry over the next 15 years. We present simulations of accessibility to the Russian maritime Arctic by Polar Class and nonice-strengthened vessels, as based on CCSM4 daily projections of sea ice concentration and thickness averaged for 2013–2027. Results indicate strong navigation uncertainties in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas, while destinational shipping to the Barents and Chukchi Seas will be relatively unencumbered by ice. Shallow-draft ships may be required for maximum utilization of the navigation season for full NSR transits. This study can be viewed as support to strategic planning in identifying key navigational challenges and opportunities along the NSR.

Polar maps: early eighteenth century vision of a northeast passage

The accompanying historic map of the Russian maritime Arctic (Figure 1) was published in Paris during the period 1715–1720. The cartographer is unknown. The original map is quite small (15.5 cm by 9.5 cm) and is published here in full size, conveniently filling a single page in Polar Geography. A copperplate engraving of this Arctic coastal map in black and white is included in a major reference work of early maps in books of Russia and Poland published in the Netherlands (van Gestel-van het Schip et al. 2011). The map was later hand-colored after printing. Postulated on this extraordinary map is a Northeast Passage (NEP), a route for ships that runs from the Atlantic Ocean into the Barents Sea, east across northern Eurasia, and through Bering Strait into the Pacific Ocean. Represented is the vision for a ‘fabled’ trade route to and from the Orient, or Cathay (northeast China), across the top of the world along the Eurasian coast. The NEP is shown passing north of Novaya Zemlya and into a ‘great unknown’ region of the Arctic Ocean. At the time the map was drawn, Novaya Zemlya’s west and northern coasts had been explored by the Dutch explorer William Barentz in 1594 and 1596 (Vaughn 1994). East of Novaya Zemlya much of what we know today in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas had not yet been fully discovered at the time of the map’s creation. Notable, missing geographic features on this map are Severyna Zemlya, the New Siberian Islands, and Wrangel Island. Curiously, a caricature of a wall is indicated near China and is most probably the Great Wall of China. There was considerable speculation used in drawing this map especially filling in the far northeastern coastline of Russia. It is recorded that the Russian Semen Dezhnev and his companions sailed in 1648 from the Kolmya River around the northeastern tip along the coast to the Anadyr River; but this voyage would be unknown until 1736 (Vaughn 1994), two decades after this map was drawn. Vitus Bering sailed in the strait in 1728 but it was not until Captain Cook’s voyage in 1778 that the eastern point of Chukotka would be charted (McLynn 2011). Three centuries after this map’s printing there is much fascination with the same region of the polar world. Driven by anthropogenic climate change and a warming world, a more accessible summer Arctic Ocean has evolved. Potential longer seasons of navigation are envisioned. Arctic sea ice is undergoing profound changes in extent, thickness, and character. All of these changes have hastened interest in how historic Arctic marine routes, such as the NEP and the Northwest Passage (NWP), routes from Baffin Bay to Bering Strait across the Canadian Arctic, might be used for shipping. The Arctic coastal region shown on the map is where key developments

Environmental Security Challenges and the Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment

The Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) released in 2009 has become a framework for the Council’s response to enhancing Arctic marine safety and environmental protection. AMSA can be viewed in three ways: as a baseline, snapshot for Arctic marine activity early in the twenty-first century; as a strategic guide for a host of stakeholders and actors; and, as a policy document of the Arctic Council since the report was negotiated and approved after consensus of the eight Arctic states was reached. The 2009 AMSA Report communicates to the global maritime community the current and future state of Arctic marine activity, and a set of complex drivers of change that must be considered in responding to the future. A set of 17 AMSA recommendations lays out a comprehensive strategy to address three themes: Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety; Protecting Arctic people and the Environment; and, Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure. AMSA addresses issues related to Arctic indigenous communities, the legal governance of the Arctic Ocean, today’s infrastructure limitations, and significant environmental issues including great concern for the release of oil in Arctic waters. As a holistic assessment providing an integrated framework from which to address the challenges of expanded, Arctic marine use, AMSA represents a first-order guide by the Council to an array of environmental security issues confronting the Arctic Ocean.

Navigating the Future: Towards Sustainable Arctic Marine Operations and Shipping in a Changing Arctic

This volume is focused on a broad set of challenges and issues related to sustainable marine operations and shipping in a future Arctic, a region experiencing extraordinary change and increasingly intense attention. The numerous chapters in this volume highlight the key current and future issues in the Arctic, with a sharp focus on what remains to be done and how we must proceed.

Challenges for the Establishment of Marine Protected Areas in Response to Arctic Marine Operations and Shipping

Increasing Arctic marine use is driven primarily by natural resource development and greater marine access throughout the Arctic Ocean created by profound sea ice retreat. Significant management measures to enhance protection of Arctic people and the marine environment are emerging, including the development of marine protected areas (MPAs) which may be effective and valuable tools. MPAs have been established by individual Arctic coastal states within their respective national jurisdictions; however, a pan-Arctic network of MPAs has yet to be established despite Arctic Council deliberations. This overview focuses on those MPAs that can be designated by the International Maritime Organization and by international instrument or treaty to respond to increasing Arctic marine operations and shipping. Key challenges remain in the Arctic to the introduction of select MPAs and development of a circumpolar network of MPAs in response to greater marine use: the variability of sea ice; the rights and concerns of indigenous people; a lack of marine infrastructure; application to the Central Arctic Ocean; establishing effective monitoring; and, compliance and enforcement in remote polar seas. Robust bilateral and multilateral cooperation will be necessary not only to establish effective MPAs but also to sustain them for the long term. Reducing the large Arctic marine infrastructure gap will be a key requirement to achieve effective MPA management and attain critical conservation goals.

Introduction to the New Maritime Arctic

Fundamental changes continue to reshape the maritime Arctic. Globalization (the linkage of Arctic natural resources to global markets), profound climate change, regional and global geopolitics, and challenges to the Arctic’s indigenous people are all drivers of a new era at the top of the world. The Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment released in 2009 continues to be a key, policy framework of the Arctic states for protection of Arctic people and the marine environment. An International Maritime Organization (IMO) Polar Code ushered in on 1 January 2017 a new era of governance for commercial ships and passenger vessels sailing in polar waters. Current Arctic marine commercial traffic is dominated by destinational voyages related to natural resource development, particularly along Russia’s Northern Sea Route. New Arctic marine operations and shipping are emerging, but significant challenges remain including: effective implementation and enforcement of the IMO Polar Code; a huge gap in Arctic marine infrastructure (hydrography and charting, communications, emergency response capacity, and more); enhancing the monitoring and surveillance of Arctic waters; the challenge of developing a set of marine protected areas and additional Polar Code measures for the circumpolar region; and, the need for large public and private investments, as well as potential public-private partnerships in the Arctic. Cooperation among the Arctic states, the non-Arctic shipping states, and the global maritime enterprise will be critical to effective protection of Arctic people and the marine environment, and developing sustainable strategies for the region.