Scott R. Stephenson

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage: routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure

The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when emerging and global markets are in growing demand for them. Driven by the expectation of potential future economic importance of the region, political interest and governance has been rapidly developing, mostly within the Arctic Council. However, this paper argues that optimism regarding the potential of Arctic routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal is overstated. The route involves many challenges: jurisdictional disputes create political uncertainties; shallow waters limit ship size; lack of modern deepwater ports and search and rescue (SAR) capabilities requires ships to have higher standards of autonomy and safety; harsh weather conditions and free-floating ice make navigation more difficult and schedules more variable; and more expensive ship construction and operation costs lessen the economic viability of the route. Technological advances and infrastructure investments may ameliorate navigational challenges, enabling increased shipping of natural resources from the Arctic to global markets.

Marine accessibility along Russia's Northern Sea Route

Recent Arctic sea ice retreat indicates that the Russian coastal seas encompassing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will be among the first marine environments to transition to a summer ice-free state. Forty-six voyages carrying 1.26 million tons of cargo in 2012 suggest increasing economic viability of the NSR for eastward transport of natural resources from northern Norway and Russia. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the near-term length and variability of the navigation season, and shelf bathymetry presents a critical constraint limiting vessel draft and cargo capacity. This paper aims to quantify the length and variability of the NSR navigation season as constrained by both sea ice and bathymetry over the next 15 years. We present simulations of accessibility to the Russian maritime Arctic by Polar Class and nonice-strengthened vessels, as based on CCSM4 daily projections of sea ice concentration and thickness averaged for 2013–2027. Results indicate strong navigation uncertainties in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas, while destinational shipping to the Barents and Chukchi Seas will be relatively unencumbered by ice. Shallow-draft ships may be required for maximum utilization of the navigation season for full NSR transits. This study can be viewed as support to strategic planning in identifying key navigational challenges and opportunities along the NSR.

Influence of Climate Model Variability on Projected Arctic Shipping Futures

Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to inter-model variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011–2035) and mid-century (2036–2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

The work of networks: Embedding firms, transport, and the state in the Russian Arctic oil and gas sector

The “network” has gained widespread acceptance within economic geography as a metaphor for economic interaction. Consistent with a global production network (GPN) approach, extractive industries are deeply embedded in political structures, physical infrastructure, and environmental conditions. We advocate for a GPN framework that emphasizes the co-operation of multiple, differentiated networks at each stage of a production network. Furthermore, the physical geography of sub-national spaces as well as trans-national spaces linking resources with destination markets imposes critical constraints on the structure and operation of oil and natural-gas extraction. We attempt to move beyond notions of a singular network encompassing all aspects of production by contextualizing extractive activities within the geopolitical economy of Arctic Russia. Our aim is twofold: to develop a more carefully articulated conception of networks based on the different economic principles and political regulation at work within different types of networks, and to show how the Russian Arctic oil and gas sector can only be adequately understood with such a nuanced approach. The Arctic case illustrates well the complex entanglement of the state and political actors in networks of firms and specialized transport systems. We first deconstruct the network concept to establish the economic principles, actors, and spaces that comprise the extractive production network, and then examine the extractive hydrocarbon networks active in Arctic Russia through this analytical lens.

Challenges of Sea-Ice Prediction for Arctic Marine Policy and Planning

ABSTRACT Sea ice presents an important challenge for trans-border coordination of Arctic maritime infrastructure. Widespread summer sea-ice melt and anticipated expansion of shipping and offshore oil and gas drilling have highlighted a need for seasonal forecasts and decadal projections of sea ice for strategic planning efforts. While the long-term trend in sea-ice extent is expected to remain negative, ice conditions exhibit large spatial and temporal variability, raising uncertainty and operational risks of navigation in seasonally ice-covered areas. Given the potential trans-border impacts of a maritime accident on the marine and coastal environment, predicting ice conditions is of critical interest to government, industry, and community stakeholders. Seasonal ice forecasts have shown promise for short-term operational decision-making, while decadal projections from general circulation models are increasingly being used for long-term planning of energy, security, and environmental policy. However, numerous issues complicate the application of sea-ice prediction methods for policy and planning. This paper examines the potential of sea-ice prediction as a tool to support strategic planning, with a focus on the trans-border marine space of the US and Canadian Arctic. The utility and limitations of seasonal and decadal sea-ice prediction are reviewed, followed by a discussion of the infrastructure and policy context within which sea-ice forecasts may be used to enhance safety and mitigate risk in the Arctic.

Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Preface Despite a period of generally heightened tensions between Russia and the West, cooperation on Arctic affairs—particularly through the Arctic Council—has remained largely intact, with the exception of direct military to military cooperation in the region. This report examines potential transformations that could alter Russias current cooperative stance there. It analyzes current security challenges in the Arctic with regard to climate and geography, economy, territorial claims, and military power, and suggests some ways in which these could undermine Arctic cooperation. It concludes with recommendations for the U.S. government to manage the risks to cooperation posed by these various factors. This research should be of interest to the many organizations, inside and outside the U.S. government, that are Arctic stakeholders and are concerned with current and upcoming transformations in the Arctic, the likely impact of those transformations on the regions security , and Russias role in that security. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. The research was conducted within the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD) of the RAND Corporation. NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis. Summary To date, the Arctic has been widely viewed as stable and peaceful, with cooperation between Russia and other Arctic states remaining possible in spite of heightened geopolitical tensions. For example, the Arctic Council has endured as a forum for cooperative policy shaping, agreements have been signed and abided by, and nations—including Russia—have participated …

The Shifting Geopolitics of Water in the Anthropocene

ABSTRACT This forum responds to recent calls to hypothesize a geopolitics of the Anthropocene by examining how our notions of geopolitics of water may shift in the context of this new and, at times, divisive framework. The Anthropocene describes the geological epoch in which humans are the dominant actor in the global environmental system and has been a concept that is not without controversy. Taking the Anthropocene as an epistemological divergence where nature can no longer be viewed as separate from humanity, this forum asks how moving away from understanding hydraulic systems as essentially stable to understanding them as unstable and profoundly influenced by humans changes our understanding ofthe geopolitics of water. Collectively the contributions to this forum illustrate that formulating a water geopolitics of the Anthropocene requires 1) moving beyond a focus on fluvial flows to consider other forms of water; 2) broadening our understanding of the actors involved in water geopolitics; 3) examining new geopolitical tactics, particularly those grounded in law; 4) engaging critically with new and emerging forms of visualization and representation in the geopolitics of water, and; 5) examining how the notion of the Anthropocene has been used towards geopolitical ends and worked to elide different positionalities.

Confronting Borders in the Arctic

ABSTRACT In this thematic issue, six papers and three short commentaries investigate the evolving nature of borders in the Arctic in an era of climate change and globalization. Together, they illustrate how processes unique to the Arctic, such as sea ice melt and Inuit self-governance, tell a larger story about the co-evolving relationship of people and the environment, and the physical and constructed borders that give them meaning. Arctic human–environment relations are embedded in distinct histories and materialities in which border-making is understood as a multi-scalar arena of subnational and transnational actors, rather than the exclusive domain of the state. At the same time, the Arctic is shaped by powerful agents of change whose impacts span national borders and reconfigure environmental barriers. The papers in this issue reveal the ways in which Arctic climatic, political, economic, and demographic change amount to a transformation in thinking about Arctic borders and bordered spaces. We hope that the Arctic case will stimulate further investigation in borderlands around the world undergoing similarly transformative changes to physical and human systems.