Le Nguyen Minh Hoa

Influenza Infection Rates, Measurement Errors and the Interpretation of Paired Serology

Serological studies are the gold standard method to estimate influenza infection attack rates (ARs) in human populations. In a common protocol, blood samples are collected before and after the epidemic in a cohort of individuals; and a rise in haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody titers during the epidemic is considered as a marker of infection. Because of inherent measurement errors, a 2-fold rise is usually considered as insufficient evidence for infection and seroconversion is therefore typically defined as a 4-fold rise or more. Here, we revisit this widely accepted 70-year old criterion. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo data augmentation model to quantify measurement errors and reconstruct the distribution of latent true serological status in a Vietnamese 3-year serological cohort, in which replicate measurements were available. We estimate that the 1-sided probability of a 2-fold error is 9.3% (95% Credible Interval, CI: 3.3%, 17.6%) when antibody titer is below 10 but is 20.2% (95% CI: 15.9%, 24.0%) otherwise. After correction for measurement errors, we find that the proportion of individuals with 2-fold rises in antibody titers was too large to be explained by measurement errors alone. Estimates of ARs vary greatly depending on whether those individuals are included in the definition of the infected population. A simulation study shows that our method is unbiased. The 4-fold rise case definition is relevant when aiming at a specific diagnostic for individual cases, but the justification is less obvious when the objective is to estimate ARs. In particular, it may lead to large underestimates of ARs. Determining which biological phenomenon contributes most to 2-fold rises in antibody titers is essential to assess bias with the traditional case definition and offer improved estimates of influenza ARs.

Severe Pandemic H1N1 2009 Infection Is Associated with Transient NK and T Deficiency and Aberrant CD8 Responses

Background It is unclear why the severity of influenza varies in healthy adults or why the burden of severe influenza shifts to young adults when pandemic strains emerge. One possibility is that cross-protective T cell responses wane in this age group in the absence of recent infection. We therefore compared the acute cellular immune response in previously healthy adults with severe versus mild pandemic H1N1 infection. Methods and Principal Findings 49 previously healthy adults admitted to the National Hospital of Tropical Diseases, Viet Nam with RT-PCR-confirmed 2009 H1N1 infection were prospectively enrolled. 39 recovered quickly whereas 10 developed severe symptoms requiring supplemental oxygen and prolonged hospitalization. Peripheral blood lymphocyte subset counts and activation (HLADR, CD38) and differentiation (CD27, CD28) marker expression were determined on days 0, 2, 5, 10, 14 and 28 by flow cytometry. NK, CD4 and CD8 lymphopenia developed in 100%, 90% and 60% of severe cases versus 13% (p<0.001), 28%, (p = 0.001) and 18% (p = 0.014) of mild cases. CD4 and NK counts normalized following recovery. B cell counts were not significantly associated with severity. CD8 activation peaked 6–8 days after mild influenza onset, when 13% (6–22%) were HLADR+CD38+, and was accompanied by a significant loss of resting/CD27+CD28+ cells without accumulation of CD27+CD28− or CD27−CD28− cells. In severe influenza CD8 activation peaked more than 9 days post-onset, and/or was excessive (30–90% HLADR+CD38+) in association with accumulation of CD27+CD28− cells and maintenance of CD8 counts. Conclusion Severe influenza is associated with transient T and NK cell deficiency. CD8 phenotype changes during mild influenza are consistent with a rapidly resolving memory response whereas in severe influenza activation is either delayed or excessive, and partially differentiated cells accumulate within blood indicating that recruitment of effector cells to the lung could be impaired.

Hemagglutination inhibiting antibodies and protection against seasonal and pandemic influenza infection

Summary Objectives Hemagglutination inhibiting (HI) antibodies correlate with influenza vaccine protection but their association with protection induced by natural infection has received less attention and was studied here. Methods 940 people from 270 unvaccinated households participated in active ILI surveillance spanning 3 influenza seasons. At least 494 provided paired blood samples spanning each season. Influenza infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on nose/throat swabs or serum HI assay conversion. Results Pre-season homologous HI titer was associated with a significantly reduced risk of infection for H3N2 (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.44–0.84) and B (0.65, 95%CI 0.54–0.80) strains, but not H1N1 strains, whether re-circulated (OR 0.90, 95%CI 0.71–1.15), new seasonal (OR 0.86, 95%CI 0.54–1.36) or pandemic H1N1-2009 (OR 0.77, 95%CI 0.40–1.49). The risk of seasonal and pandemic H1N1 decreased with increasing age (both p < 0.0001), and the risk of pandemic H1N1 decreased with prior seasonal H1N1 (OR 0.23, 95%CI 0.08–0.62) without inducing measurable A/California/04/2009-like titers. Conclusions While H1N1 immunity was apparent with increasing age and prior infection, the effect of pre-season HI titer was at best small, and weak for H1N1 compared to H3N2 and B. Antibodies targeting non-HI epitopes may have been more important mediators of infection-neutralizing immunity for H1N1 compared to other subtypes in this setting.

Pandemic H1N1 virus transmission and shedding dynamics in index case households of a prospective Vietnamese cohort

Summary Objectives Influenza household transmission studies are required to guide prevention strategies but most passively recruit index cases that seek healthcare. We investigated A(H1N1)pdm09 transmission in a household-based cohort during 2009. Methods Health-workers visited 270 households weekly, and collected swabs from influenza-like-illness cases. If A(H1N1)pdm09 was RT-PCR-confirmed, all household members had symptoms assessed and swabs collected daily for 10–15 days. Viral RNA was quantified and sequenced and serology performed on pre-pandemic sera. Results Index cases were detected in 20 households containing 81 people. 98.5% lacked A(H1N1)pdm09 neutralizing antibodies in pre-pandemic sera. Eleven (18.6%, 95% CI 10.7–30.4%) of 59 contacts were infected. Virus genetic diversity within households was negligible and less than between households. Index and secondary cases were distributed between mothers, daughters and sons, and had similar virus-RNA shedding and symptom dynamics. Fathers were rarely infected. Five secondary cases (45%) had no apparent symptoms and three shed virus before symptoms. Secondary infection was associated with index case wet cough (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.22–1.99). Conclusions In this cohort of A(H1N1)pdm09 susceptible persons, virus sequencing was capable of discriminating household from community transmission. Household transmission involved mothers and children but rarely fathers. Asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic shedding was common.

Determinants of Influenza Transmission in South East Asia: Insights from a Household Cohort Study in Vietnam

To guide control policies, it is important that the determinants of influenza transmission are fully characterized. Such assessment is complex because the risk of influenza infection is multifaceted and depends both on immunity acquired naturally or via vaccination and on the individual level of exposure to influenza in the community or in the household. Here, we analyse a large household cohort study conducted in 2007–2010 in Vietnam using innovative statistical methods to ascertain in an integrative framework the relative contribution of variables that influence the transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza. Influenza infection was diagnosed by haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody assay of paired serum samples. We used a Bayesian data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy based on digraphs to reconstruct unobserved chains of transmission in households and estimate transmission parameters. The probability of transmission from an infected individual to another household member was 8% (95% CI, 6%, 10%) on average, and varied with pre-season titers, age and household size. Within households of size 3, the probability of transmission from an infected member to a child with low pre-season HI antibody titers was 27% (95% CI 21%–35%). High pre-season HI titers were protective against infection, with a reduction in the hazard of infection of 59% (95% CI, 44%–71%) and 87% (95% CI, 70%–96%) for intermediate (1∶20–1∶40) and high (≥1∶80) HI titers, respectively. Even after correcting for pre-season HI titers, adults had half the infection risk of children. Twenty six percent (95% CI: 21%, 30%) of infections may be attributed to household transmission. Our results highlight the importance of integrated analysis by influenza sub-type, age and pre-season HI titers in order to infer influenza transmission risks in and outside of the household.

Epidemiology and etiology of influenza-like-illness in households in Vietnam; it's not all about the kids!

Abstract Background Household studies provide opportunities to understand influenza-like-illness (ILI) transmission, but data from (sub)tropical developing countries are scarce. Objective To determine the viral etiology and epidemiology of ILI in households. Study design ILI was detected by active case finding amongst a cohort of 263 northern Vietnam households between 2008 and 2013. Health workers collected nose and throat swabs for virus detection by multiplex real-time RT-PCR. Results ILI was detected at least once in 219 (23.7%) of 945 household members. 271 (62.3%) of 435 nose/throat swabs were positive for at least one of the 15 viruses tested. Six viruses predominated amongst positive swabs: Rhinovirus (28%), Influenza virus (17%), Coronavirus (8%), Enterovirus (5%), Respiratory syncytial virus (3%), Metapneumovirus virus (2.5%) and Parainfluenza virus 3 (1.8%). There was no clear seasonality, but 78% of episodes occurred in Winter/Spring for Influenza compared to 32% for Rhinovirus. Participants, on average, suffered 0.49 ILI, and 0.29 virus-positive ILI episodes, with no significant effects of gender, age, or household size. In contrast to US and Australian community studies, the frequency of ILI decreased as the number of household members aged below 5 years increased (p=0.006). Conclusion The findings indicate the need for tailored ILI control strategies, and for better understanding of how local childcare practices and seasonality may influence transmission and the role of children.

Prevalence and diversity of H9N2 avian influenza in chickens of Northern Vietnam, 2014

Despite their classification as low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIV), A/H9N2 viruses cause significant losses in poultry in many countries throughout Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. To date, poultry surveillance in Vietnam has focused on detection of influenza H5 viruses, and there is limited understanding of influenza H9 epidemiology and transmission dynamics. We determined prevalence and diversity of influenza A viruses in chickens from live bird markets (LBM) of 7 northern Vietnamese provinces, using pooled oropharyngeal swabs collected from October to December 2014. Screening by real time RT-PCR revealed 1207/4900 (24.6%) of pooled swabs to be influenza A virus positive; overall prevalence estimates after accounting for pooling (5 swabs/pools) were 5.8% (CI 5.4–6.0). Subtyping was performed on 468 pooled swabs with M gene Ct < 26. No influenza H7 was detected; 422 (90.1%) were H9 positive; and 22 (4.7%) were H5 positive. There was no evidence was of interaction between H9 and H5 virus detection rates. We sequenced 17 whole genomes of A/H9N2, 2 of A/H5N6, and 11 partial genomes. All H9N2 viruses had internal genes that clustered with genotype 57 and were closely related to Chinese human isolates of A/H7N9 and A/H10N8. Using a nucleotide divergence cutoff of 98%, we identified 9 distinct H9 genotypes. Phylogenetic analysis suggested multiple introductions of H9 viruses to northern Vietnam rather than in-situ transmission. Further investigations of H9 prevalence and diversity in other regions of Vietnam are warranted to assess H9 endemicity elsewhere in the country.

Investigation of Dengue and Japanese Encephalitis Virus Transmission in Hanam, Viet Nam

This study investigated whether a large dengue epidemic that struck Hanoi in 2009 also affected a nearby semirural area. Seroconversion (dengue virus-reactive immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was high during 2009 compared with 2008, but neutralization assays showed that it was caused by both dengue virus and Japanese encephalitis virus infections. The findings highlight the importance of continued Japanese encephalitis virus vaccination and dengue surveillance.

Acute Measles Encephalitis in Partially Vaccinated Adults

Background The pathogenesis of acute measles encephalitis (AME) is poorly understood. Treatment with immune-modulators is based on theories that post-infectious autoimmune responses cause demyelination. The clinical course and immunological parameters of AME were examined during an outbreak in Vietnam. Methods and Findings Fifteen measles IgM-positive patients with confusion or Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score below 13, and thirteen with uncomplicated measles were enrolled from 2008–2010. Standardized clinical exams were performed and blood collected for lymphocyte and measles- and auto-antibody analysis. The median age of AME patients was 21 years, similar to controls. Eleven reported receiving measles vaccination when aged one year. Confusion developed a median of 4 days after rash. Six patients had GCS <8 and four required mechanical ventilation. CSF showed pleocytosis (64%) and proteinorrhachia (71%) but measles virus RNA was not detected. MRI revealed bilateral lesions in the cerebellum and brain stem in some patients. Most received dexamethasone +/− IVIG within 4 days of admission but symptoms persisted for ≥3 weeks in five. The concentration of voltage gated calcium channel-complex-reactive antibodies was 900 pM in one patient, and declined to 609 pM ∼ 3 months later. Measles-reactive IgG antibody avidity was high in AME patients born after vaccine coverage exceeded 50% (∼ 25 years earlier). AME patients had low CD4 (218/µl, p = 0.029) and CD8 (200/µl, p = 0.012) T-cell counts compared to controls. Conclusion Young adults presenting with AME in Vietnam reported a history of one prior measles immunization, and those aged <25 years had high measles-reactive IgG avidity indicative of prior vaccination. This suggests that one-dose measles immunization is not sufficient to prevent AME in young adults and reinforces the importance of maintaining high coverage with a two-dose measles immunization schedule. Treatment with corticosteroids and IVIG is common practice, and should be assessed in randomized clinical trials.

Association between Hemagglutinin Stem-Reactive Antibodies and Influenza A/H1N1 Virus Infection during the 2009 Pandemic

ABSTRACT The discovery of influenza virus broadly neutralizing (BrN) antibodies prompted efforts to develop universal vaccines. Influenza virus stem-reactive (SR) broadly neutralizing antibodies have been detected by screening antibody phage display libraries. However, studies of SR BrN antibodies in human serum, and their association with natural infection, are limited. To address this, pre- and postpandemic sera from a prospective community cohort study in Vietnam were assessed for antibodies that inhibit SR BrN monoclonal antibody (MAb) (C179) binding to H1N1 pandemic 2009 virus (H1N1pdm09). Of 270 households, 33 with at least one confirmed H1N1pdm09 illness or at least two seroconverters were included. The included households comprised 71 infected and 41 noninfected participants. Sera were tested as 2-fold dilutions between 1:5 and 1:40. Fifty percent C179 inhibition (IC50) titers did not exceed 10, although both IC50 titers and percent C179 inhibition by sera diluted 1:5 or 1:10 correlated with hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (MN) titers (all P < 0.001). Thirteen (12%) participants had detectable prepandemic IC50 titers, but only one reached a titer of 10. This proportion increased to 44% after the pandemic, when 39 participants had a titer of 10, and 67% of infected compared to 44% of noninfected had detectable IC50 titers (P < 0.001). The low levels of SR antibodies in prepandemic sera were not associated with subsequent H1N1pdm09 infection (P = 0.241), and the higher levels induced by H1N1pdm09 infection returned to prepandemic levels within 2 years. The findings indicate that natural infection induces only low titers of SR antibodies that are not sustained. IMPORTANCE Universal influenza vaccines could have substantial health and economic benefits. The focus of universal vaccine research has been to induce antibodies that prevent infection by diverse influenza virus strains. These so-called broadly neutralizing antibodies are readily detected in mice and ferrets after infection with a series of distinct influenza virus strains. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic provided an opportunity to investigate whether infection with a novel strain induced broadly neutralizing antibodies in humans. We found that broadly neutralizing antibodies were induced, but levels were low and poorly maintained. This could represent an obstacle for universal vaccine development and warrants further investigation.