Leah C. Stokes

Impacts of the Minamata Convention on Mercury Emissions and Global Deposition from Coal-Fired Power Generation in Asia

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 μg·m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

Analyzing Barriers to Energy Conservation in Residences and Offices: The Rewire Program at the University of Toronto

Conducting a barriers analysis is an important first step when designing proenvironmental behavior change interventions. Yet, detailed information on common barriers to energy conservation campaigns remains unavailable. Using a pair of original surveys, we leverage the theory of planned behavior to report on the most important barriers for fourteen energy conservation behaviors common in university residences and offices. Our results provide key information for individuals designing community-based social marketing and other behavior change campaigns in an educational setting, particularly for energy conservation efforts. Results also provide guidance for the process of conducting effective barrier assessments.

The Power of Collaboration: Engaging All Parties in Renewable Energy Infrastructure Development

To make our energy systems more sustainable and address climate change, society must transition its electricity infrastructure toward zero emission sources over the coming century. Many governments have already accepted this fact, passing ambitious policies to bring renewable energy up to 20% or more of the electricity mix within the next decade. Wind, solar, biomass, wave energy, and hydropower are all likely to grow rapidly as fossil fuels are replaced. This shift will require significant investments in infrastructure for electricity generation, transmission, and distribution.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

Splitting the South: China and India's Divergence in International Environmental Negotiations

International environmental negotiations often involve conflicts between developed and developing countries. However, considering environmental cooperation in a North-South dichotomy obscures important variation within the Global South, particularly as emerging economies become more important politically, economically, and environmentally. This article examines change in the Southern coalition in environmental negotiations, using the recently concluded Minamata Convention on Mercury as its primary case. Focusing on India and China, we argue that three key factors explain divergence in their positions as the negotiations progressed: domestic resources and regulatory politics, development constraints, and domestic scientific and technological capacity. We conclude that the intersection between scientific and technological development and domestic policy is of increasing importance in shaping emerging economies’ engagement in international environmental negotiations. We also discuss how this divergence is affecting international environmental cooperation on other issues, including the ozone and climate negotiations.

ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEWS AND CASE STUDIES: Beyond the Information Campaign: Community-Based Energy Behavioral Change at the University of Toronto

For three decades, many environmental practitioners have used the information campaign as their tool of choice. Yet most simple information appeals remain ineffective and are rooted in an outdated understanding of human behavior. In this article, we report on policy lessons from the Rewire program, an innovative energy conservation campaign at the University of Toronto that has grown to reach over 12,000 community members in Canadas largest university. Drawing from the Rewire experience, which evaluated the program by using a mix of psychological, electricity, and qualitative metrics, we suggest cost-effective methods for delivering policy interventions in a complex institutional setting and explore effective methods to generate widespread changes in energy behaviors through a community-based social marketing approach. Campaign designers should move away from single-tool policy interventions to employ a coordinated set of tools and techniques that address a wide range of determinants of human behavior. By training community-based coordinators, campaign designers should also move away from hierarchical policy implementation and toward decentralized deployment of modular and locally adaptive campaigns. For behavioral change to make a meaningful contribution to energy policy, we emphasize the need for more regular dialogue between social science research and the community of energy conservation practitioners.

Reducing the Cost of Voting: An Evaluation of Internet Voting’s Effect on Turnout

Voting models assume that voting costs impact turnout. As turnout declined across advanced democracies, governments cycled through reforms aiming to reduce costs to increase participation. Internet voting, used in elections across a dozen countries, promises to reduce voting costs dramatically. Yet, identifying its effect on turnout has proven difficult. We use original panel data of local elections in Ontario, Canada and fixed effects estimators. Results show internet voting can increase turnout by 3.5 pp with larger increases when vote by mail is not yet adopted, and greater use when registration is not required. Our estimates suggest that internet voting is unlikely to solve the low turnout crisis and implies that cost arguments do not fully account for recent turnout declines.