Lee A. Craig

Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach

The linearity of the U.S. hog—corn cycle has been questioned by Chavas and Holt (1991) . Even so, attempts have not been made to model the potential nonlinear dynamics in the hog—corn cycle by using regime-switching models. One popular alternative is Terasvirtas smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, which assumes regime switching is endogenous and potentially smooth. In this article, we examine monthly data for the U.S. hog—corn cycle, 1910–2004. A member of the STAR family, the time-varying STAR, is fitted to the data and its properties examined. We find evidence of nonlinearity, regime-dependent behavior, and time-varying parameter change. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Transportation Improvements and Land Values in the Antebellum United States: A Hedonic Approach

We offer county-level estimates of the effect of water and rail access on the value of antebellum farms. Employing a hedonic model, we find that in 1850 average farm values in counties with access to a canal or navigable river were

The Effect of Mechanical Refrigeration on Nutrition in the United States

2.68 per acre greater than counties without such access and

The Value of Household Labor in Antebellum Northern Agriculture

1.80 greater with rail access. In 1860 the figures were

State and local retirement plans in the United States

3.75 for a canal or river access and

Trying Out for the Team: Do Exhibitions Matter? Evidence from the National Football League

1.35 for rail. With average farm size around 200 acres and per capita national income roughly

Integration of the European business cycle: 1871-1910

150 during the decade, we conclude that on average transportation access yielded substantial economic gains.

Hours at work and total factor productivity growth in nineteenth-century U.S. agriculture

Although the principles of refrigeration have been understood for thousands of years, the widespread use of mechanical refrigeration in the processing, shipping, and storing of perishable commodities began only in the 1890s. Because refrigeration facilitated the hygienic handling and storage of perishables, it promoted output growth, consumption, and nutrition through the spatial and temporal integration of markets for perishables. We estimate the impact of mechanical refrigeration on output and consumption, and hence on human nutrition, concentrating on the contribution from refrigerated dairy products, an important source of nutrients, particularly proteins and calcium. We conclude that the adoption of refrigeration in the late-nineteenth-century United States increased dairy consumption by 1.7% and overall protein intake by 1.25% annually after the 1890s. The increase in protein consumption was particularly important to the growth of the human organism. According to our lower-bound estimates, refrigeration directly contributed at least 5.1% of the increase in adult stature of the postrefrigeration cohorts, and combined with the indirect effects associated with improvements in the quality of nutrients and the reduction in illness, the overall impact was considerably larger.

The Political Economy of Public-Private Compensation Differentials: The Case of Federal Pensions

This article estimates the contribution of farm household members to agricultural output in the antebellum northern United States. I reject the hypothesis that children contributed more in the least settled regions. The contribution of young children and teenage females was greatest in the Old Northwest; teenage boys made their largest contribution in the Northeast. In the Midwest young males and females performed the same tasks, namely market production and land clearing, but in the Northeast males were more likely to specialize in market production and females in household production.

Wage Discrimination and Occupational Crowding in a Competitive Industry: Evidence from the American Whaling Industry

State and Local Retirement Plans in the United States explains how economic and political events have shaped the development of pension plans in the last century, and it argues that changes in the structure and generosity of these plans will continue to shape policy and funding in the future. It also brings to bear a new rationale to the policies behind public sector pension plans. The authors use the history of how early public pension plans were established, how they matured and how they have grown in generosity to analyse what changes may be expected in years to come. Unique in its scope, this comprehensive history of the development of public sector pension plans in the United States during the twentieth century expands upon current ideas relating to the changing economic environment, the passage and evolution of social security, and the expansion of the public sector.