Leonardo Pequeno Reis

Rate, pattern and factors related to damage in Brazilian systemic lupus erythematosus patients

The Systemic Lupus InternationalCollaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Damage Index (SDI) is an accepted instrument to ascertain damage. It has been shown to vary among differentSLE populations.The aim of this study was to assess SDI score, pattern and factors related to damage in Brazilian SLE outpatients. The SDI was obtained in 105 patients with a median age of 41 (5-95%, 19-61.7) years and a median SLE duration of 127 (17.6-345.9) months. Patients had a median SDI of 2 (0-8) and 81.9% had some damage (SDI > 0). Damage was associatedwith a higher number of ACR criteria for SLE in multivariate analysis (OR 2.32, 95%CI 1.23-4.37, P 0.009). Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (OR 9.82, 95%CI 2.74-35.23, P < 0.001), methylprednisolone pulses (OR 3.91, 95%CI 1.19-12.81, P 0.024), age (OR 1.70, 95%CI 1.02-1.13, P 0.011) and prednisone use duration (OR 1.01, 95%CI 1.002-1.02, P 0.020) were related to severe damage (SDI ≥4). Hypertensionwas associated with renal, cardiac and atherosclerotic damage, as cyclophosphamide pulses were with premature menopause. In conclusion, damage was very frequent in Brazilian SLE patients, mainly due to skin involvement, compared to other SLE populations. The presence of APS was the major independent contributor to the development of severe damage. Arterial hypertension was identified as a common risk factor for renal, cardiac and atherosclerotic damage.

Artificial neural networks: Modeling tree survival and mortality in the Atlantic Forest biome in Brazil

Models to predict tree survival and mortality can help to understand vegetation dynamics and to predict effects of climate change on native forests. The objective of the present study was to use Artificial Neural Networks, based on the competition index and climatic and categorical variables, to predict tree survival and mortality in Semideciduous Seasonal Forests in the Atlantic Forest biome. Numerical and categorical trees variables, in permanent plots, were used. The Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) and the distance-dependent competition index were the variables used. The overall efficiency of classification by ANNs was higher than 92% and 93% in the training and test, respectively. The accuracy for classification and number of surviving trees was above 99% in the test and in training for all ANNs. The classification accuracy of the number of dead trees was low. The mortality accuracy rate (10.96% for training and 13.76% for the test) was higher with the ANN 4, which considers the climatic variable and the competition index. The individual tree-level model integrates dendrometric and meteorological variables, representing a new step for modeling tree survival in the Atlantic Forest biome.

AVALIAÇÃO DE MÉTODOS DE SELEÇÃO DE COMPETIDORES EM NÍVEL DE ÁRVORE INDIVIDUAL EM UMA FLORESTA ESTACIONAL SEMIDECIDUAL1

Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a selecao de arvores competidoras com base em uma parcela circular com raio de 6 m e diâmetro das arvores superior ou igual a 5 cm, no uso do fator de area basal igual a 1, de acordo com o metodo de Bitterlich, e na disputa por espaco e luz observados em campo. Para isso, fez-se a selecao dos fustes competidores ao redor de 24 arvores objeto, escolhidas em funcao de sua importância, no que concerne ao estoque de carbono e ao valor de seus produtos madeireiros e nao madeireiros. Apos as analises, observou-se, pelo teste L&O, que ambos os metodos avaliados apresentaram baixa correlacao em uma classe de diâmetro. Isso indica que a selecao dos competidores precisa ser mais estudada.